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The recent cryptocurrency market has shown obvious structural differentiation characteristics. Data indicates that Bitcoin's market share continues to rise and has successfully maintained a long-term key support level, while most altcoins are trading near multi-year lows. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has experienced a slight rebound, signaling that the market is stabilizing but has not yet formed an effective breakout.
From the overall trend, Bitcoin's price remains volatile above important support levels, effectively reducing the risk of further short-term decline. Driven by Bitcoin's stabilization, market sentiment has somewhat recovered, with the total market cap slowly rebounding from recent lows and approaching the resistance zone that has been tested repeatedly before. The market generally believes that this rebound is not driven by a single positive factor but is a natural result of the gradual fading of selling pressure after a continuous decline.

On January 3, 2026, a sudden geopolitical news event quickly impacted the global energy markets—The US military arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a military operation. After the news was announced, China's capital markets responded first, with major oil stocks such as China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec falling approximately 2% to 4% during trading, as investors quickly priced in the “Venezuela oil supply interruption risk.”
As one of China's important overseas energy suppliers, Venezuela has long provided a stable source of oil to China through methods such as “oil-for-debt repayment” and “crude oil financing exchange.” If there is a dramatic change in the political situation, relevant oil delivery agreements, supply schedules, and settlement mechanisms could be affected, thereby increasing operational uncertainty and substitution procurement costs for Chinese energy companies. This is also the core reason why Chinese oil stocks faced short-term pressure.

Foresight News reports that, according to MLM monitoring, the first batch of cluster accounts related to Tornado Cash have unstaked 262,400 HYPE tokens (approximately $6.9 million) and have immediately started selling.

Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions around Venezuela, the Bitcoin market has shown rare calmness. The latest data from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant indicates that, amidst continuous developments of related news, Bitcoin traders have not flooded into exchanges en masse, and there are no signs of typical panic selling in the market. This suggests that short-term news shocks have not yet translated into substantial on-chain pressure.
From a price perspective, geopolitical news has indeed caused some volatility, but these fluctuations have not been accompanied by abnormal on-chain trading activity. Analysts point out that sudden political events often cause short-term emotional disturbances, but the true determinants of market direction are still whether capital is concentrated in exchanges and changes in the behavior of long-term holders. Currently, Bitcoin investors are more inclined to observe rather than rush to adjust their positions.

As Bitcoin prices surged past $92,000 in Asian early trading on Monday and briefly touched the $93,000 mark, cryptocurrency-related stocks and mining stocks all rose in pre-market trading, with market risk appetite clearly rebounding. The rise in Bitcoin not only boosted crypto asset sentiment but also drove U.S. tech index futures higher in tandem, with Invesco QQQ showing a positive pre-market performance.
In the Bitcoin concept stock sector, Strategy (MSTR) rose about 3.5% in pre-market trading, reaching $163. The market expects the company to disclose a new round of Bitcoin accumulation plans later that evening. Previously, Strategy increased its dividend yield to 11%, pushing its perpetual preferred stock STRC price back to nearly $100 at par, further boosting investor confidence. Another company focusing on Bitcoin reserve strategies, Strive (ASST), saw a more significant increase, rising about 12% in pre-market trading, with its stock price approaching the $1 mark.

James Wynn recently achieved significant profits by going long on PEPE and BTC, with his account value increasing from $20,000 to $800,000, and his total holdings reaching $13.95 million. He predicts that PEPE's market cap will surpass $69 billion by 2026; if not achieved, he will delete his social media accounts.

As 2026 officially begins, Bitcoin traders are noticeably more bullish in the derivatives market. The latest data shows that the market is heavily betting on Bitcoin's price breaking through the $100,000 mark, with related options demand rapidly heating up on Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange, signaling a clear bullish outlook.
Since last Friday, the trading volume of Bitcoin call options with a $100,000 strike price and expiration in January has significantly increased. Call options represent investors betting that Bitcoin's price will rise above a certain level before expiration. This concentrated positioning indicates traders are confident in the short-term and phased market trends. Wintermute strategists noted that current trading mainly involves rolling over positions, with the $100,000 call options expiring on January 30 being particularly active.

With the overall rebound of the altcoin market, the Meme coin sector has become active again, and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has become one of the market focal points. Data shows that PENGU's single-day increase once reached 8.6%, with a total rise of about 47% since January 1, clearly outperforming most small and mid-cap tokens. Excluding Ethereum (ETH), the total market cap of altcoins increased by approximately 7.5% during the same period, providing a favorable macro environment for PENGU.
From a trend perspective, PENGU's rebound is somewhat unexpected. Previous analysis indicated that the token would still face strong selling pressure by the end of 2025 and would remain in a downward channel in the medium to long term. However, recent price actions show that bearish momentum is weakening, and several indicators are beginning to show signs of stabilization and recovery. The three-day chart indicates that the downward trend since August last year is being challenged. Although trading volume and momentum indicators are still relatively weak, marginal improvements have already appeared.

The sudden news of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's arrest shook the global political arena, while the decentralized prediction market Polymarket released abnormal signals hours before the news was made public, sparking widespread discussions about whether "prediction markets are reflecting sensitive information in advance."
According to blockchain data analysis, before the event was officially disclosed, the price of the "Maduro is ousted" Yes contracts on Polymarket rapidly surged. Three anonymous digital wallets placed large bets in advance on Maduro's removal and ultimately made a total profit of approximately $630,000. This trend was clearly at odds with the mainstream public opinion at the time, which held that "the probability of Maduro stepping down in the short term was extremely low."

Due to the United States ousting Venezuelan President Maduro, the British pound fell against the US dollar but rose to a two-month high against the euro. Monex Europe analysts pointed out that geopolitical tensions increased safe-haven demand, boosting the US dollar, but the pound performed well against the euro, and this situation may be temporary. In the future, the UK political environment may be unfavorable for economic growth, while the euro could benefit from stimulus policies.

In Q4 2025, Ethereum stablecoin trading volume hit a record high. According to data from Token Terminal, the total on-chain stablecoin trading volume on Ethereum for the quarter first surpassed 8 trillion, nearly doubling from approximately 4 trillion in Q2, further solidifying Ethereum's position as the core infrastructure for global digital dollar settlement.
Along with the surge in trading volume, the supply of Ethereum stablecoins also maintained steady growth. Data shows that in 2025, the total issuance of on-chain stablecoins on Ethereum increased by approximately 43% year-over-year, rising from $127 billion at the beginning of the year to about $181 billion. This "volume and price increase" pattern indicates that the growth of stablecoins is driven more by genuine payment and settlement needs rather than short-term speculative activities.