Gold breaks $4300 to hit a historic high! Market capitalization exceeds $30 trillion, aiming for the $5000 mark. Can Bitcoin keep up?

Gold prices soared to a record $4325.91 per ounce on October 16, 2025, with an annual rise of over 60%, pushing its market capitalization above $30 trillion, making it the second-largest asset class globally. This strong rally was primarily driven by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical conflicts, escalating China-U.S. trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and expectations of rate cuts by the Fed. Analysts from institutions such as Societe Generale and Goldman Sachs have predicted that gold prices will reach $5000 and $4500, respectively, while the performance comparison between Bitcoin and gold has also become a hot topic on social media.

Gold Soars to Record High: Driven by Safe-Haven Surge and Rate Cut Expectations

Gold has reached a historic high for the fourth consecutive day, surpassing 4300 USD mark, reflecting deep market concerns over global risks.

· Core Drivers

Spot gold reached a record high of 4318.75 USD on October 16, closing up 2.6% at 4316.99 USD. The key driving factors behind this surge include:

Geopolitical tensions: For example, the US criticizes China for expanding rare earth export controls, as well as the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The market currently expects a rate cut in October and December, with probabilities as high as 98% and 95% respectively. Low interest rates typically drive up the price of non-yielding assets like gold.

De-dollarization trend: Many countries' central banks increase their gold holdings to hedge against the devaluation of the dollar risk.

· Analyst target price

OANDA analyst Craig Erlam pointed out that if global risks escalate and the US-China trade tensions are not resolved, gold prices “could break through 5000 dollars per ounce.”

Technical Analysis: Buying Opportunities Under Overbought Warning

Technical indicators show that the gold market is extremely overbought in the short term, but any pullback may be seen as a buying opportunity.

· Gold Technical Analysis

The daily chart of spot gold shows that the price has broken through the strong resistance level of 4000 dollars and is currently continuing to rise in an unknown area, with no signs of correction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached extreme levels around 85, indicating that the market is extremely overbought in the short term.

Nonetheless, analysis suggests that this short-term overheating may trigger a correction, but the correction is likely to present new buying opportunities for investors.

· Silver, platinum, and palladium rose together.

Led by gold, silver also rose 1.8% to $54.04 per ounce, setting a historic high of $54.15 and breaking through the key level of $50. Platinum and palladium also rose 3.2% and 4.6%, respectively.

The Battle Between Bitcoin and Gold: Peter Schiff's Fierce Comments

The strong performance of gold has sparked discussions in the crypto community, with gold advocate Peter Schiff using this opportunity to criticize the performance of Bitcoin.

· Schiff's viewpoint

Peter Schiff commented: “Gold is stealing the spotlight from Bitcoin. Since the peak in August, Bitcoin has fallen 32% when priced in gold. Holders, sell your 'fool's gold' now and buy real gold.” He believes that gold will reach $4,400 in the short term, indicating that “something big is about to happen.”

· CZ's response

CZ jokingly responded with “Peter revenge” and reflected on the astonishing history of Bitcoin rising from $0.004 to $110,000 over the past 16 years, implying that short-term fluctuations do not alter Bitcoin's long-term value.

Bearish Pressure on the Dollar Index

At the same time, the US dollar index continues to be under pressure, providing additional momentum for precious metals represented by gold.

· Dollar Index Daily Chart

The US dollar index is forming strong resistance around 99, continuing to decline. If it drops below 97.60, it may further decline towards 96.50, and if it drops below 96.50, it could test the 90 level. The weakness of the dollar has intensified the trend of funds flowing towards safe-haven assets and hard assets, further supporting the rise of precious metals.

Conclusion

Gold prices have broken through 4300 USD, reaching a historic high, reflecting the concentrated effects of global geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and shifts in monetary policy. In a market dominated by safe-haven demand, gold has demonstrated its long-term value storage capability as a hard asset. Although there are short-term overbought risks, the macro environment suggests that gold prices still have room to rise. While investors focus on short-term technical corrections, they should also look at the long-term support from central bank purchases and deepening global risks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.