BlackRock bets nearly $10 billion! Bitcoin analysis: Hold these 5 levels to break $120,000.

On October 16, the Bitcoin price traded around $111,000, while the market is assessing whether this pump can be sustained. BlackRock's IBIT asset size has approached $100 billion, holding approximately 799,000 BTC, and yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $102 million.

However, on-chain cost basis clustering shows that the range of $107,000 to $109,000 forms a dense support area, while the resistance zone of $114,000 to $117,000 is still testing the bulls' determination. According to data from Glassnode and Deribit, Bitcoin must pass five key tests in order to solidly stay above $100,000 and challenge the historical high of $126,000.

First hurdle: The US Spot ETF must maintain continuous net inflow

The demand for Bitcoin ETF has become the core driving force of this bull market. BlackRock's IBIT, with an asset scale close to 100 billion USD, has become the largest Bitcoin Spot ETF in the United States, and this world's largest asset management company continues to concentrate supply. In the past 10 days, there were only two days of capital outflow from the US Spot products, and yesterday recorded a new net inflow of 102 million USD. This pattern of clustered inflows rather than single outflows often influences the persistence of the trend.

Academic research on exchange-traded products has found that daily price changes typically precede capital flows, and there is a leading-lagging relationship between prices and capital flows. Once momentum is established, a reflexive feedback loop is created. This framework is highly consistent with the market trends this season. During the previous breakout period, billions of dollars in capital inflows helped sustain the upward movement. If Spot can close and maintain above $117,000, while U.S. Bitcoin ETF experiences net inflows for 3 to 5 consecutive days, we will enter a continuation phase. This will lead to absorption ahead of long-term holders' allocation and re-challenge the high point area around $126,000 in October.

However, once the ETF experiences a cluster of capital outflows and the Spot closes below $107,000, the market will face tail risk of collapse, with the actual cost gap possibly pointing directly to $93,000 to $95,000. Therefore, tracking the daily net flow changes of the U.S. Spot ETF has become the most important leading indicator for judging Bitcoin's short-term trend.

Second Level: On-chain Support Level of 107,000 USD Must Not Be Lost

On-chain rotation shows that funds are being strongly allocated, and the mid-tier accumulation has improved under the push in October. Long-term holder spending has reached a new high, which is a typical pattern after the impact phase, while Bitcoin ETF demand acts as a major absorber. The cost basis clustering positions the dense realized support in the range of $107,000 to $109,000, which represents a cost concentration area for a large number of chips.

According to Glassnode's latest weekly report analysis, if the area fails to hold on a closing basis, the market will see an air pocket between $93,000 and $95,000, meaning that this price range lacks sufficient cost support and prices may drop rapidly. This cost basis analysis is one of the most reliable on-chain indicators in Bitcoin analysis, as it reflects the average cost of real holders and often becomes the last line of defense during market panic.

Maintaining above $107,000 can keep the range unchanged, which is the minimum requirement for Bitcoin to stay above $100,000. Once it falls below this critical support, market sentiment will quickly shift from greed to panic, and a technical collapse will trigger a chain reaction, making the test of $93,000 support inevitable. Therefore, $107,000 is not only a key technical level but also a psychological defense line for market confidence.

Third Level: Breakthrough of 117,000 USD Resistance Clears Profit Taking Pressure

Previous buyers' supply above the Spot price often reappears around $114,000 to $117,000, and profit-taking in this area has limited the pump in recent weeks. This phenomenon is clearly visible in Glassnode's realized price distribution, where a large number of chips are stuck or waiting to be released in this price range. Once the price approaches, selling pressure naturally emerges.

If the Spot can close and maintain above $117,000, combined with consecutive days of net inflow into the Bitcoin ETF in the United States, this resistance level will be cleared, making the path to the historical high of $126,000 smooth. Breaking through $117,000 is not only a technical victory, but also represents that market demand has become strong enough to absorb all profit-taking pressure.

This breakout needs to be confirmed with trading volume. If the trading volume shrinks during the breakout, it often signals a false breakout, and the price may quickly pull back. On the contrary, if the breakout is accompanied by increased volume, especially from large buy orders in the US market, the validity of the breakout will be greatly enhanced. Traders should closely monitor the price action around $117,000, which will determine whether Bitcoin enters a new round of upward cycle or continues to oscillate and digest between $107,000 and $117,000.

Fourth Level: Derivatives Market Maintains Health to Avoid Leverage Collapse

The derivatives market has added a key variable to the debate over the risk of a crash. According to data from Deribit, the 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) remains elevated compared to previous months, with the 25-Delta skew shifting from a call option-rich state to a put option-rich state during periods of stress, and then retracting during rebounds. The skew quickly turned from negative to positive, often coinciding with short-term downward windows, as demand for downside protection surged.

However, the current financing rates and leverage ratios are still more subdued than in previous explosive phases, which reduces the likelihood of a chain deleveraging starting from a bull-intensive market. This combination suggests that the market will still be vulnerable when facing shocks without the incentive of extreme perpetual leverage, but it will not lead to a waterfall collapse like that of May 2021.

In Bitcoin analysis, derivative indicators provide risk warnings rather than directional guidance. The DVOL peak continues to mark a jumping window, and this pattern is clearly visible in the term structure and risk reversals on Deribit. If DVOL continues to rise and the skew turns towards a concentration of put options, it indicates that the market is buying insurance against potential declines, which is often a precursor to heightened panic. Conversely, if DVOL reverts to the mean and the skew remains neutral, the market will maintain a digestion trajectory, which is the current base scenario.

Maintaining a moderate level of leverage brings pullbacks closer to the realized support levels rather than causing chaotic fluctuations. This is also why, despite the high price of Bitcoin, large-scale liquidations have not yet occurred. As long as the financing rates remain moderate, the market will not accumulate excessive systemic risk.

Fifth Stage: Macroeconomic Risks are Controllable to Avoid Policy Black Swans

Macroeconomic factors remain the main source of leap risk. Stock valuations are marked as too high, and tariffs and trade themes have once again become driving forces of risk aversion. Last week's news about tariffs triggered a mechanical deleveraging in cryptocurrencies, with reports indicating that hundreds of billions of dollars in assets were liquidated as traders rushed to re-hedge. This backdrop suggests that market volatility will expand in the short term, but once the event risk has passed, capital flows and volatility data will reset, and the market will reassess.

Under pressure, liquidity still tilts the balance towards Bitcoin rather than high beta coins. The U.S. market accounts for the largest share of 1% market depth, providing thicker book management than the offshore market, enabling it to absorb funds more reliably. This concentration of depth, combined with the stable subscription and redemption channels packaged by the Bitcoin ETF, helps explain why BTC has fallen less than many high beta coefficient tokens this year amid macroeconomic turbulence.

If the risk of policy shocks strongly returns, with the skew continuing to lean towards bearish options, and an outflow cluster of funds appears in the ETF, while the spot closes below $107,000, a crash tail scenario will emerge. Therefore, closely monitoring tariff negotiations, inflation data, and Federal Reserve policy statements has become a macro dimension that cannot be ignored in Bitcoin analysis. As long as these systemic risks are controlled, Bitcoin can maintain structural support above $100,000.

Three Scenarios and Institutional Target Prices

(Source: CryptoSlate)

In this context, the Bitcoin trend is divided into three clear tracks. The continuation track requires closing and sustaining above $117,000, while the U.S. Bitcoin ETF experiences consecutive days of net inflows, which will re-challenge the high point of $126,000. The digestion track is the basic scenario, where capital flows are mixed and the spot price fluctuates between $107,000 and $126,000, with DVOL mean reverting and capital staying moderate. The collapse track is triggered when policy shock risks return, the skew continues to lean towards bearish options, the ETF experiences a cluster of capital outflows, and the spot closes below $107,000, with a target directly aimed at $93,000 to $95,000.

If the demand for Bitcoin ETF continues, Standard Chartered Bank has set a market entry window of $150,000 to $200,000 by 2025. The bank also tends to utilize a gold parity perspective (currently gold prices are nearing the historical high of $3,700 per ounce) to map out the upper limit through a comparison of volatility scales. The effectiveness of these targets depends on whether ETF capital inflows keep pace and whether macro tail effects are controlled.

According to forecasts, by 2027, the settlement balance of stablecoins will reach between 1 trillion to 2 trillion USD. As the settlement balance expands, stablecoin pipelines provide a medium-term tailwind for absorbing demand in the risk phase. Although this topic raises the ceiling for ETF and direct demand that the market can handle in future funding inflow cycles, it does not determine the trend for next week. Therefore, the recent map depends on two thresholds and a data series: maintaining a range above 107,000 USD and closing above 117,000 USD in conjunction with multi-day Bitcoin ETF inflows returning to a peak, while DVOL plus skew determines whether the pressure will evolve into a chaotic decline or a regular reset.