Macro Depth Interpretation: Gold rises to a new high of 4200 USD, Bitcoin is poised for action, and Fed liquidity serves as a double driving force.

Against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations and the Fed's liquidity injections, gold continues to strengthen as a stable safe-haven asset, with prices breaking through $4000 and soaring to $4200. Meanwhile, Bitcoin shows a higher potential upside in the context of a weak dollar, with current prices stabilizing above $100,000. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that quantitative tightening (QT) is nearing its end, and the actual liquidity injection actions provide macro support for the rise of hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, despite the Bitcoin/gold ratio facing strong resistance around 40.

Fed Liquidity Shift: QT Nearing Its End and Implicit Easing

Although the Fed has not officially ended quantitative tightening, its actions have reflected support for market liquidity, creating favorable conditions for hard assets.

· QT is nearing its end

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that Quantitative Tightening (QT) is nearing its end. He hinted that the Fed may soon stop reducing its holdings of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

· Implicit easing and liquidity injection

Despite QT still being underway, the Fed is effectively maintaining low interest rates by increasing its holdings of long-term US Treasuries by nearly $200 billion, which is similar to quantitative easing.

In addition, the Fed injected more cash into the financial markets by repaying reverse repurchase loans and reducing the Treasury General Account (TGA).

These actions keep the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index around the historically loose -0.546.

· Warning on the decline of commercial bank reserves

However, commercial bank reserves have now fallen below $3 trillion, indicating that unless new Liquidity measures are introduced, tightening may reappear.

Rising Demand for Safe Havens: End of the Bond Bull Market and Inflation Expectations

Structural forces indicate that the appeal of bonds as a safe-haven asset is declining, while rising inflation expectations and a weak dollar provide strong fundamental support for gold and Bitcoin.

· The End of the Bond Bull Market

Although the Fed has temporarily suppressed long-term yields, structural forces indicate that the bond bull market has ended. On long-term charts, bond prices are in a long-term downtrend, with long-term yields rising.

In an environment of rising interest rates, debt saturation, and fiscal pressure, the appeal of bonds as a safe-haven asset diminishes.

· Weakness of the dollar and inflation hedge

The chart shows that inflation expectations are rising. The Fed's interest rate cuts and persistent inflation may further push down real interest rates and weaken the dollar.

The environment of weak dollar supports assets such as gold (XAU) and Bitcoin (BTC).

Gold and Bitcoin: Duel of the Titans and Ratio Resistance

Under the push of Liquidity, both gold and Bitcoin have achieved a pump, but there are significant differences between the two in terms of volatility and historical safe-haven status.

· Liquidity drives the rise of dual assets

Bitcoin surged as liquidity flooded into the financial system, while gold prices also skyrocketed amid a weakening dollar. The record rise in gold reflects the growing demand from investors to hedge against fiat currency depreciation and excessive central bank intervention.

· Parabolic breakout of gold

Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic imbalances have driven gold to break through 4000 dollars, soaring to 4200 dollars.

Breaking through 4000 USD is significant, triggering a parabolic positive feedback loop, attracting more buyers, and potentially driving the price of gold up to 6000 USD in the coming months.

· Bitcoin/gold ratio faces challenges

The ratio of Bitcoin to gold has shown a steady rise since 2012, indicating strong bullish momentum for Bitcoin. However, the ratio faced key resistance around 40 and subsequently dropped sharply.

Breaking 40 this range may trigger a new round of buying for Bitcoin, allowing it to outperform gold in the next cycle.

· Risk and Return Trade-off

Gold remains the preferred safe-haven asset amid inflation and global tensions. However, Bitcoin has higher volatility but offers greater potential returns. Bitcoin is currently consolidating above the key level of 100,000 dollars, preparing for the next rise.

Conclusion

As the Fed's QT approaches its end and amid the macro backdrop of actual liquidity injections, the dual benefits pattern of gold and Bitcoin as hard assets has been established. The breakthrough of 4000 USD for gold has initiated a parabolic rise, showcasing its strong safe-haven value in the current geopolitical and inflationary environment. Although Bitcoin is more volatile and lacks the historical backing of gold, its faster price elasticity during liquidity increases makes it a high-risk, high-reward option. Investors, when responding to a bull market driven by market interventions, may consider increasing positions during short-term pullbacks in gold and pay attention to Bitcoin's consolidation breakout signals above 100,000 USD.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.