Trump's Tariff Thaw Sparks Crypto Rebound: Can This Rally Last in October 2025?

As of October 13, 2025, crypto markets are staging a vigorous comeback, with Bitcoin surging 8% to $113,000 and Ethereum rebounding 10% to $4,100, erasing half the $19 billion liquidation scars from last week's tariff-fueled black swan. President Trump's latest Truth Social update—signaling potential "phased implementation" of the 100% China tariffs and openness to Xi talks—has ignited risk-on fervor, boosting sentiment from ice-cold (Fear & Greed at 12) to neutral (now 48). Altcoins like Solana (+15%) and privacy plays like ZEC (+5%) lead the charge, as DeFi volumes rebound to $150 billion daily amid stabilized funding rates. This "Trump thaw" narrative revives bull hopes, but questions linger: Is it a dead-cat bounce or sustainable rally in blockchain's volatile ecosystem?

The Rebound Mechanics: From Panic Purge to Policy Pivot

Last Friday's meltdown—triggered by Trump's blanket tariff threat—wiped $280 billion in crypto cap, but his October 12 softening (hinting at exemptions for rare earths and tech) flipped the script, drawing institutional bids via ETF inflows (+$500 million). On-chain data shows whale accumulation: 10,000 BTC scooped below $105K, per Whale Alert, while DEX liquidity pools refilled 20%. DeFi held firm—Aave's TVL stabilized at $15B—proving resilience against CEX delays. X buzz echoes optimism, with KOLs like @CryptoWhale calling it "the dip we needed," tying into 2025 trends like RWA tokenization on Solana for trade-war hedges.

• Price Snapshots: BTC $113K (+8%); ETH $4.1K (+10%); SOL $180 (+15%).
• Volume Surge: $150B daily DeFi trades, up 30% from lows.
• Sentiment Shift: Fear & Greed to 48; X mentions of "Trump rebound" up 200%.
• Whale Moves: $2B alt inflows; stablecoin reserves dip 5% signaling risk appetite.

Rally Drivers: Policy Relief Meets Technical Setup

Trump's pivot—framed as "strategic negotiation"—eases supply chain fears, boosting tech stocks (Nasdaq +2%) and crypto correlations. Technically, ETH's bullish divergence (higher low at $3.4K vs. RSI bottom) and negative funding flips (-0.01%) set up short squeezes, targeting $4.3K. Fundamentals shine: ETH staking yields at 4.2% attract HODLers, while ZEC's privacy edge counters surveillance risks from tariff data grabs. Yet, macro shadows loom—shutdown extension to Day 13 could reignite volatility.

• Policy Catalyst: Phased tariffs + Xi dialogue; rare earth exemptions eyed.
• Tech Signals: RSI 55 (neutral); $4K support holds for $4.3K push.
• Institutional Fuel: $500M ETF buys; Grayscale rotations to alts.
• Narrative Boost: "Thaw rally" trends on X, 70% bullish polls.

Trading Guide: Navigating the Bounce Window

For BTC, hold $110K support for longs targeting $119K, stops at $108K—aggressives 5x leverage on compliant DEXs. ETH: Await $4.1K close above channel for swings to $4.3K; reduce below $3.9K. In this thaw, favor spot HODLs over perps; Oct 15 rebound node key for extension.

• BTC Play: Long $110K volume; target $119K, stop $108K.
• ETH Swing: $4.1K entry; $4.3K goal, $3.9K invalidation.
• Risk Pivot: Spot-first; hedge 20% in stables.
• Style Fit: Bands for momentum; monitor Trump posts.

In summary, Trump's tariff thaw has thawed crypto's freeze, fueling a broad rebound—but sustainability hinges on policy follow-through. Secure via multi-sig wallets, ladder dips on resilient platforms, and track X for signals—explore Dune Analytics for flow edges in this pivotal pivot.