4E: The risk of government shutdown approaches, Cook admits to holding coins, and the long-term logic of Bitcoin is being discussed again.

According to Mars Finance, the 4E observation reports that the U.S. government shutdown crisis is once again approaching. With funding set to expire on September 30, Trump will meet with congressional leaders on September 29, and if the spending bill is not passed, millions of federal employees could be affected. Deutsche Bank analysts warn that this is the highest risk window for a government shutdown since 2018-19. Trump previously stated, "If the government has to shut down, then shut down."

In the crypto market, Apple CEO Tim Cook confirmed his personal holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum, stating that they are a "reasonable allocation strategy" in his investment portfolio, showing that Crypto Assets are gradually being recognized by more mainstream tech leaders. Meanwhile, well-known analyst PlanB believes that the Bitcoin bull-bear dividing point will appear in June 2025, and it may enter a long-term stable rise cycle in the future.

From the institutional perspective, Cathie Wood expressed that Ethereum is unlikely to surpass Bitcoin, as the scale effect of Bitcoin will continue to expand, but she revealed that she has recently bought BitMine stock to indirectly layout in the ETH ecosystem.

On a macro level, Citibank's latest report raised the 2030 stablecoin market size forecast to a baseline of $1.9 trillion, with an optimistic scenario reaching $4 trillion, corresponding to a trading volume that could exceed $200 trillion. Currently, the stablecoin market capitalization is approximately $296.8 billion, with USDT accounting for nearly 59%, indicating that the market is still in its early stages. 4E reminds investors: macro uncertainty combined with the gradual integration of the crypto market into the mainstream financial system presents both short-term risks and long-term opportunities. Investors need to pay attention to the U.S. fiscal game and stablecoin regulatory progress to seize structural opportunities.