The four consecutive rises have come to an abrupt halt! Nearly $900 million net outflow from the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF last week, as the "profit-taking wave" hits at the end of the third quarter.

After four consecutive weeks of net inflow of funds into the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF, there was a net outflow last week (the specific date is inferred to be the last week of September), ending the trend of continuous inflow. According to SoSoValue data, the total net outflow last week reached 902.5 million, hitting a low not seen in over 30 days, primarily due to a single-day outflow of 418.25 million on Friday. Analysts believe this was mainly caused by routine actions of "profit-taking" and portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter, but optimism among institutions for long-term adoption of Bitcoin remains high, especially with expectations for strong historical returns in the fourth quarter.

Capital flow reversal: Quarterly rebalancing triggers large-scale outflows

Last week, the fund flows of the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF sharply reversed, ending a four-week streak of net inflows. Data shows that the overall net outflow reached $902.5 million, particularly with $418.25 million exiting on Friday, which was a major driver, causing the weekly net value to hit a monthly low.

Among many products, Fidelity's FBTC has become a "disaster area" for outflows, with a net outflow of $300.41 million on Friday; closely followed by BlackRock's IBIT, which had a net outflow of $37.25 million on the same day.

Analyst Shawn Young pointed out in an interview that this wave of outflows "primarily reflects profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing, as we are approaching the end of the quarter." It is a routine operation for institutional investors to adjust their asset allocations at the end of each quarter, which does not necessarily indicate a deterioration of fundamentals. Young emphasized that Bitcoin ETFs are being "actively traded as part of mainstream portfolio management," indicating that the long-term trend adopted by institutions remains solid.

Bitcoin price is in a consolidation phase: the market is waiting for macro signals

Despite the outflow of funds, Bitcoin's price trend shows a certain resilience. Previously, Bitcoin reached an all-time high (ATH) of slightly above $124,000 in mid-August, but has since struggled to regain momentum.

Although it fell to a low of $108,600 last Monday, data shows that Bitcoin had a slight rebound that day, rising over 2% to $111,800, keeping its monthly return rate for September at around 3.2%.

Young believes that the sellers' lack of sustained follow-up selling reflects the market's resilience to absorb pressure. He points out that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, rather than a weak phase. The market is essentially waiting for clearer macro signals, which could come from the Federal Reserve, U.S. government policies, or liquidity trends, before making its next decisive move.

Focus on the Fourth Quarter: Optimism and Potential Volatility

Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically brings over 50% returns in the fourth quarter during past bull market cycles, which provides strong optimistic support for market sentiment.

Based on this, analyst Young expects that in the coming months there will be "increased volatility" and a "trend-setting movement," characterized by a re-energizing of momentum and investors' "opportunity to increase their existing positions."

For investors, despite experiencing outflows and price volatility due to quarter-end rebalancing in the short term, the institutionalization process of Bitcoin as a mainstream financial asset is still advancing. While waiting for macro policy and liquidity signals, the historical rise expectations for the fourth quarter provide the market with long-term bullish reasons.

Conclusion

The net outflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF last week resembled a routine financial operation by institutions at the end of the quarter, namely profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing, rather than a fundamental change in the long-term value judgment of Bitcoin. Although the Bitcoin price is still waiting for clear macro signals to break through the consolidation range, the long-term trajectory adopted by institutions remains unchanged, and with expectations of historically strong returns in the fourth quarter, the overall market maintains a cautiously optimistic attitude. Investors should regard short-term capital fluctuations as normal and prepare for the upcoming high volatility and potential trend opportunities.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.