Deutsche Bank predicts: Bitcoin could rank alongside gold as a Central Bank reserve asset as early as 2030.

As the momentum for reshaping the global financial system continues to grow, analysts at Deutsche Bank predict that by 2030, Bitcoin is expected to stand alongside gold as a reserve asset on Central Bank balance sheets. This prediction is set against the backdrop of dramatic shifts in geopolitics and monetary policy, as well as an increasing demand from institutions for non-traditional stores of value. In particular, the Trump administration's proposal earlier this year to establish a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve has greatly fueled discussions among central banks regarding Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Analysts point out that Bitcoin's low correlation with traditional assets and its characteristics as a store of value make it uniquely attractive to institutions.

The New Landscape of Central Bank Reserve Assets: Bitcoin and Gold Coexist

Deutsche Bank's forecast outlines a bold blueprint for Bitcoin's institutional adoption, believing it will transition from a marginal asset to a sovereign reserve.

· Deutsche Bank's optimistic forecast

• Timeline: Marion Laboure, a research analyst at Deutsche Bank Research, stated that by 2030, there will be enough room on the Central Bank's balance sheet for gold and Bitcoin to coexist.
• Driving factors: She pointed out that the Trump administration's decision earlier this year to establish an executive order for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve "reignited the debate over Central Banks holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset."

· Comparison of the market value of Bitcoin and gold

Against the backdrop of geopolitical and monetary policy changes, the demand for these two assets is increasing:

1. Momentum of Gold: The price of gold has soared above $3,700 per ounce, with a market value exceeding $25 trillion.
2. The Status of Bitcoin: The price of Bitcoin has retreated after soaring to over $124,000 last month, but its current market capitalization is still above $2.3 trillion.

Trump's Strategic Reserve Plan and Technical Support

The policy shift of the Trump administration is seen as a major catalyst for Bitcoin gaining mainstream institutional recognition, and the plan also draws on historical precedents of gold reserves.

· The policy basis of the US Strategic Reserve

• Major policy shift: The executive order issued by the Trump administration in March calls for the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve, marking a significant change in U.S. policy.
• Establishment Pathway: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the government is committed to establishing this reserve through "budget-neutral pathways" and will use "Bit that will ultimately be confiscated by the federal government as the foundation of the strategic Bitcoin reserve" **.

· Learning from the history of gold reserves

The idea of incorporating Bitcoin into Central Bank reserves is reminiscent of past strategies involving gold:

• Valuation Precedent: A recent report from the Federal Reserve emphasizes that re-evaluating the United States' gold holdings could increase its book value from $11 billion to $750 billion. Analysts believe that this precedent can be extended to cryptocurrencies.

· The technical appeal of Bitcoin

Laboure emphasized that the low correlation of Bitcoin with traditional assets gives it value storage characteristics similar to gold, enhancing its appeal to institutions. She believes: "Bitcoin also has the potential to provide value for investments and consumer goods."

The Serviceization of the American Banking Industry and Hex Trust's Institutional Strategy

The perspective of the CEO of Hex Trust provides a micro view of how Bitcoin is permeating traditional financial infrastructure, namely that banking as a service will be the key next step.

· Mainstreaming Predictions for the U.S. Banking Industry

• Timeline: Hex Trust CEO Alessio Quaglini predicts that once regulations are clear, most U.S. banks will offer custody, trading, and deposit services for Bitcoin within months.
• Global benchmark: He referred to the U.S. regulations as the "global benchmark" adopted by institutions.

· Hex Trust's positioning and vision

• Institutional Infrastructure: Hex Trust's strategic focus is on providing infrastructure (custody, trading, lending, etc.) for institutions, rather than relying on retail trading like publicly listed crypto companies in the United States, thus avoiding direct exposure to the volatility of the crypto market.
• Future Goal: The company was established in 2018, with operations spanning Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, aiming to achieve $20 million in revenue by 2025, and considering an IPO in the future.
• The Disruptive Nature of Stablecoins: Quaglini also believes that stablecoins are a disruptive force with the potential to replace the SWIFT system as the preferred tool for cross-border payments.

Conclusion

Deutsche Bank's forecast paints a future vision of Bitcoin transitioning from a disruptor to a sovereign reserve asset, driven by macroeconomic turmoil, rising government debt, and the weakening of Central Bank independence. Actions taken by the Trump administration and historical precedents of Federal Reserve gold valuation provide a political and historical foundation for the institutionalization of Bitcoin. However, the speed of this transition will depend on further clarity in regulation and the evolution of global geopolitics. In an era where Central Banks are beginning to seriously consider risk diversification and alternative reserves, Bitcoin's scarcity and low correlation advantages are making it an element that cannot be ignored in the long-term evolution of the financial system.

Do you think that the American banking industry providing Bitcoin services will accelerate institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies more quickly than the launch of ETFs?