Bitcoin whales taking profits trigger market fluctuations as gold awaits PCE data to indicate direction.

Recently, as the price of Bitcoin fell below $112,000, long-term holders, the Whales, realized profits exceeding $120 million in a single day, attracting widespread attention in the market. Meanwhile, gold maintained a cautious trend during the Asian trading session, with market focus centered on the upcoming U.S. Core PCE Price Index release. Analysts pointed out that this key inflation data will become an important catalyst for determining the short-term direction of precious metals. Currently, the technical support level for gold is at $3,731, while the key range for silver is between $43.59 and $43.74.

In-Depth Analysis of Market Dynamics

Gold exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations during the Asian trading session, with prices hovering between mild rises and falls but failing to break through recent highs. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to implement two more rate cuts before 2025, providing important support for precious metals. However, the latest statements from Fed Chairman Powell have cooled market optimism, as he warned that overly aggressive rate cuts could undermine the achievements in controlling inflation, potentially forcing policymakers to shift towards tightening. This comment pushed the dollar index to a two-week high, indirectly limiting the upside potential for gold.

The resilience of the US dollar has become a key factor suppressing the performance of precious metals. Despite expectations for interest rate cuts, recent economic data supports demand for the dollar. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index has fallen sharply, while consumer spending indicators remain robust, creating a contradictory signal that keeps the market cautious. Traders are closely watching a series of US economic data, including the final GDP for the second quarter, durable goods orders, and weekly jobless claims, but the main focus remains on the core PCE price index to be released on Friday— the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.

Bitcoin Whale Behavior Analysis

On-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders, the whales, have taken significant profit during the recent price fall. According to analyst Ali Martinez's sharing on platform X, "diamond hands" investors holding over 1,000 Bitcoins (approximately 113.7 million USD) realized over 120 million USD in profits on September 21. This timing highly coincides with the start of Bitcoin's downward trend, indicating that the selling pressure from whales may be one of the factors triggering the market adjustment.

Long-term holders typically refer to investors who have held their coins for more than 155 days. They are known for their steadfast holding and rarely participate in sell-offs during market fluctuations. Therefore, this concentrated profit-taking behavior is worthy of high attention from the market. Meanwhile, short-term holders (those who have held their coins for less than 5 months) transferred 15,700 Bitcoins to mainstream CEX during the price crash, all at a loss, indicating that new market entrants may have experienced panic selling.

Outlook on Precious Metals Technical Patterns

Gold is currently trading around $3,740, with the 50-day exponential moving average ($3,731) forming a key support level in the recent period. The relative strength index is at 47, indicating weakening momentum but not yet entering the oversold territory. If the $3,731 support is broken, it may further test $3,701 and $3,685, while the longer-term ascending trend line support is around $3,628. On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $3,760 to regain control, with the next key resistance level at $3,790.

Silver entered a consolidation phase after rising to $44.44, currently hovering around $43.95. The technical outlook shows that the range of $43.59 to $43.74 constitutes an important support level, with Fibonacci extension levels indicating $44.82 and $45.32 as upward targets. The relative strength index is at 52, in the neutral zone, indicating that market sentiment is becoming calmer. Silver's dual nature—serving as both an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset—makes it particularly sensitive to changes in global sentiment.

On-chain Data Cycle Comparison

Glassnode data shows that during the current bull market cycle, Bitcoin long-term holders have realized a cumulative profit of 3.4 million Bitcoin, a figure that exceeds all historical records except for one cycle. This indicator fully illustrates that long-term investors have adopted a more proactive profit management strategy in this cycle. In stark contrast to the panic selling by short-term holders, the profit-taking by long-term Whales is more rational, and this divergence behavior typically occurs during important turning points in the market.

Geopolitical risks continue to provide a safety margin for precious metals, with escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East driving safe-haven funds to flow in continuously. Analysts point out that before the inflation data is released on Friday, gold and silver are likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern. Investors are avoiding large directional bets and need to find a balance between expectations of Fed rate cuts and a strong dollar. Currently, the market generally takes a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting the PCE data to provide clear guidance for the next move.

Conclusion

The concentration of profit-taking by Bitcoin whales, along with the cautious stance in the precious metals market, paints a complex picture of the current risk market. On-chain data reveals a stark contrast between the rational exit of long-term holders and the panic selling of short-term investors, a differentiation that usually heralds a new phase for the market. Meanwhile, traditional safe-haven assets await the inflation data most favored by the Federal Reserve to provide direction, as global investors reassess their asset allocation strategies amid uncertainty. The market is brewing new momentum, and the release of key data could become an important catalyst for breaking the balance.

Disclaimer: This article is news information and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.