AI Prediction: Bitcoin ( BTC ) price is expected to break through $150,000, and the US Congress Bitcoin strategic reserve legislation is a key variable.

As of September 23, 2025, Bitcoin price has risen to around $113,000. U.S. President Trump’s executive order in March established a Bitcoin strategic reserve, but the real key is whether Congress passes the relevant legislation and mandates an expansion of the reserve size. Different legislative outcomes will determine the future price movement of Bitcoin: from steady rise to supply shocks, market signals and liquidity structure will be the focus that traders need to closely follow.

The topics being discussed in Congress

· Executive Order (March 2025): Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and U.S. digital asset inventory, with confiscated BTC to be placed under permanent federal custody and prohibited from being sold. · Pending Legislation: The "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act" proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis and Congressman Nick Begich, with part of the draft suggesting the accumulation of up to 1 million BTC within 5 years. · Key Differences: The executive order can be revoked by future presidents, while legislation would make the reserve permanent, establish a reporting system, and even mandate the purchase of new BTC.

Why it is crucial to force the purchase of Bitcoin

· New issuance after halving: Approximately 164,250 BTC/year (about 450 coins daily). · If Congress demands the purchase of 200,000 BTC/year: About 550 coins daily, exceeding new supply. · Supply situation: · OTC market supply: Approximately 155,000 BTC by August 2025, significantly down from 2021. · Exchange balance: About 2.9 million BTC, and continuing to decline. · Conclusion: Any large-scale mandatory purchase plan will tighten liquidity and drive prices up.

Four Possible Bitcoin Reserve Scenarios

A. Pure legislative confirmation

· Reduce the regulatory risk premium in the United States.

· Support for spot ETFs and corporate capital inflows.

· Promote a moderate rise in price, but will not trigger a supply shock.

B. Mandatory Gradual Purchase (DCA Mode)

The government's daily demand exceeds the new issuance.

· OTC inventory is gradually depleting, and trading is gradually shifting to exchanges.

· A long-term trend of "buying on dips" has formed, with prices steadily rising.

C. Mandatory Centralized Purchase (Pre-Execution)

· Rapidly depleting OTC supply, directly impacting the exchange market.

· Causes short-term volatility and slippage.

· May attract enterprises, pension funds, and sovereign funds to follow.

· The price movement is overheated in the short term, followed by a consolidation.

D. weaken compromise scheme

· If legislation is merely symbolic without clear purchasing goals:

· News stimulus brings short-term pump.

· Subsequently, there may be a "good news fully priced in" market.

Market Signals to Follow

· Bill Text: Whether it includes clear purchase targets. · Treasury Guidelines: Start date for purchases and execution rhythm. · ETF Inflows: Whether daily net inflows continue to exceed $300 million. · OTC Dynamics: Widening spreads and delivery delays represent supply tightness. · Exchange Depth: A 1% order depth decline means an increase in slippage risk.

Bitcoin Key Price Ranges

· Support Level: $110,000 (recent pullback bottom), $100,000 (psychological barrier). · Resistance Level: $116,000 (September high), $125,000 (breakout level), $150,000 (may become a market magnet if legislation mandates purchase).

Macroeconomic Environmental Overlay Factors

· The Federal Reserve's policy, the strength of the dollar, and the movement of gold remain key. · Loose monetary policy and a weakening dollar: will amplify the benefits brought by legislation. · Hawkish policies: may offset some of the upward momentum.

Conclusion

If Congress merely confirms the executive order, Bitcoin will steadily rise supported by reduced policy risks and ETF inflows.

If the legislation includes mandatory purchase clauses, the supply and demand mathematics are very clear: government demand will exceed new supply, and the OTC reserves are already very tight, which will inevitably force the Bitcoin price to rise.

Ultimately, whether Bitcoin benefits from moderate policy or enters a supply shock market depends on the final text of the bill. But in any case, the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation will become a historic turning point, further establishing Bitcoin as a global sovereign reserve asset.