Bitcoin Price Prediction: Long-term holders sell, low-quality speculative trading surges, BTC may test the $100,000 mark downwards.

Despite Bitcoin's price stabilizing around $115,000, its fundamentals are showing signs of pessimism. Long-term holders (LTHs) are taking profits, and the number of active addresses has fallen to its lowest point in 11 months. Meanwhile, a surge in speculative trading is masking the weakness of real network activity. This situation, driven by internal distribution and external speculation, puts Bitcoin at potential risk of price correction.

Market Observation: Long-term holders are taking profits.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) may stabilize around $115,000, but the reality is less convincing. Long-term holders (LTHs) are cashing out, while the number of active addresses has dropped to its lowest point in nearly a year. Meanwhile, a surge in small speculative trades has prevented further declines in network activity data.

Are we about to see a fall in the BTC price?

Is "smart money" leaving the market?

Currently, one of the clearest warning signals for Bitcoin is the surge in the "Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)" indicator. This indicator is used to track the behavior of Bitcoin that has not been moved for a long time when it is transferred. Its 30-day moving average has risen to the highest level in 18 months, indicating that long-term holders are selling during this strong price period.

This behavior typically occurs near price peaks and is a sign of "distribution," where experienced investors exit the market while newcomers continue to buy. This shift is not simply profit-taking; it is more a reflection of concern that the current bull market is losing the support of its most solid foundation. Without the support of long-term holders, the price of Bitcoin appears increasingly vulnerable.

On-chain Data Distortion: Speculative Activities Distort Real Data

Despite the surge in transaction numbers reaching an annual high, the number of active addresses has fallen to a low not seen in 11 months. At first glance, this spike in activity seems bullish, but it is largely an illusion. This surge is primarily driven by speculative protocols like Runes, where bots and a handful of users generate thousands of tiny transactions. This low-quality traffic exaggerates network data but does not increase genuine adoption or meaningful value transfer.

Key Price Levels: Determining Future Direction

These warning signals prompt us to pay attention to the key price levels of BTC. The $117,000 area has proven to be a strong resistance level. According to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, if the price can break through $118,600, it will confirm new buying momentum and could trigger a new round of increases.

(Source: Alphractal)

Conversely, if the price falls below 113,700 USD, the market may face deeper downward risks, with 110,000 USD and even 104,000 to 100,000 USD potentially becoming targets. These price levels will ultimately determine whether Bitcoin continues its upward momentum or slides into a larger correction.

Conclusion

This week's on-chain data presents a clear contradiction: although Bitcoin's price and trading volume seem vibrant, its internal fundamentals show obvious signs of weakness. The profit-taking by long-term holders and the decrease in active addresses starkly contrast with the low-quality speculative trading flooding the network, posing a serious challenge to the sustainability of this bull market. The market's next direction will depend on the tug-of-war between short-term price fluctuations and long-term fundamentals.