The U.S. encryption market regulatory bill has gained bipartisan support, and the XRP price movement is facing a critical decision, which may challenge historical highs.

With Trump being re-elected in November 2024, the US Crypto Assets market enters a pro-Crypto era. The resignation of the SEC chairman, the conclusion of the SEC vs Ripple case, the passage of the GENIUS Act, and the launch of the first XRP ETF in the US all mark this transition. Currently, a Market Structure Bill aimed at providing a clear regulatory framework is gaining bipartisan support in Congress and is being expedited. If this bill is combined with the recent successful launch of the XRP ETF, it could become a key catalyst for XRP's price. The current XRP price hovers around $3, and its future direction will depend on ETF capital inflows, institutional adoption, and the progress of the regulatory process; a bullish scenario could push it to break historical highs.

New Era of Regulation: Market Structure Bill Gains Bipartisan Support

XRP and the entire Crypto Assets market have benefited from a significant shift in the attitude of U.S. lawmakers towards Crypto Assets since Trump was re-elected in November 2024. The resignation of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the conclusion of the SEC vs. Ripple case, the passage of the GENIUS Act, and the launch of the first XRP ETF in the U.S. all signify the end of the Biden administration and Gensler's anti-Crypto era.

The next key legislation in the U.S. digital assets space is the "Market Structure Act." This bill will provide the much-needed regulatory framework that fundamentally eliminates the threat of future SEC lawsuits based on violations of U.S. securities laws. The bill will grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) greater regulatory authority and provide the necessary framework to classify crypto assets as digital commodities or investment contracts (i.e., securities).

According to the latest news shared by encryption media host and journalist Eleanor Terrett, Democratic senators in the Senate have expressed their desire to work with their Republican colleagues to "make swift progress" on the bipartisan-supported "Market Structure Bill." Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego shared a joint statement released by 12 Democratic senators regarding the bill, stating: "Last week, we released a framework for market structure legislation that emphasizes our commitment to addressing this issue. As we said at the time, digital assets represent a $4 trillion global market that requires a thoughtful and bipartisan approach to regulation. We hope our Republican colleagues will agree to the bipartisan drafting process, which is standard for legislation of such magnitude."

Senators emphasized the necessity of swift action and bipartisan cooperation, adding, "Given our shared interest in promptly advancing this issue, we hope they will agree to reasonable demands for genuine collaboration." This joint statement was followed by the release of a framework of seven pillars for digital asset legislation, which includes: addressing the regulatory gaps in the spot market for non-securities digital assets; clarifying the legal status of digital assets and the jurisdiction of regulatory agencies; incorporating issuers of digital assets and platforms into the regulatory framework; preventing illegal financial activities and corruption; and ensuring fair and effective regulation.

Price Trends and Technical Analysis: Breaking the $3 Barrier is Key

XRP fell 0.5% last Saturday, continuing the previous day's decline of 2.67%, closing at $2.9775. Despite the token's performance lagging behind the broader market (which rose 0.3%), it continues to trade near the psychological level of $3. Traders are watching several key technical levels:

(Source: TradingView)

• Support levels: $2.8 and $2.5.
• Resistance levels: 3 dollars, 3.2 dollars, 3.335 dollars, and historical high of 3.66 dollars.

Recently, several key events may drive price trends: the trend of ETF fund flows, the approval or delay of spot ETFs (including BlackRock's plan to submit an application for the iShares XRP Trust), blue-chip companies' views on using XRP as a treasury reserve asset, and regulatory milestones such as Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Act, and relevant news from SWIFT.

Bullish and Bearish Scenario Analysis

The price outlook for XRP depends on whether institutional fund inflows and regulatory approvals are consistent, or if bearish headwinds dominate.

bearish scenario

• The inflows for BITW, GDLC, and XRPR are weak, and BlackRock downplays the likelihood of submitting an application for the iShares XRP Trust.
• SEC rejects XRP spot ETF application.
• Legislative disagreements or obstacles to crypto-friendly regulations.
• Blue-chip companies do not use XRP as treasury reserve assets.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered banking license.
• SWIFT maintains its dominant position in the global remittance market, limiting Ripple's market share.

These bearish events may push XRP towards $2.8 and possibly test the next key support level of $2.5.

bullish scenario

• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong inflows.
• BlackRock submitted an application for the iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approved the XRP spot ETF.
• Blue chip companies are using XRP as treasury reserve assets, and more payment platforms are integrating Ripple technology.
• Ripple obtained a charter bank license in the United States, and the Senate passed the "Market Structure Bill."
• SWIFT's share of the global remittance market has been taken by Ripple.

These events may push XRP above 3 dollars, paving the way to reach 3.2 dollars. If it can continue to break through 3.2 dollars, it may open the door for bulls to test 3.335 dollars and ultimately challenge the historical high of 3.66 dollars.

Conclusion

XRP is at a critical turning point. On one hand, the regulatory environment in the U.S. market is undergoing a fundamental shift, with bipartisan support for a clear regulatory framework increasingly strengthening. This provides an unprecedented positive catalyst for the approval of the XRP spot ETF and greater institutional adoption. On the other hand, bearish sentiment in the short-term market and capital outflows are putting pressure on its price. The flow of ETF funds and the progress of the Market Structure Act will be key factors in determining the future direction of XRP. If regulatory certainty arrives as expected and meets with institutional capital inflows, XRP is likely to break through existing resistance and usher in the next historic rise.