Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

BTC at $76,450—are you panicking?
Look at the surface first: three consecutive bearish blows, but the price hasn’t collapsed.
The market was stunned after the rate decision. Rates were raised 25 bp to 3.75-4%, and Chair Warsh opened with, “Inflation isn’t under control yet, and there could be another hike this year.” On the same day, the procedural vote on the market structure bill failed 49-50. ETFs saw $746 million in net outflows over two days. After breaking below the range, the price didn’t accelerate downward; instead, it consolidated around 76,000-76,500. When it should fall but doesn’t, something is brewing.
First: the rate hike is genuinely bearish, but the market had already “overpriced” it.
The Fed raised rates 25 bp on September 16, and the dot plot showed one more hike this year, taking rates to 4.1%. The market’s first reaction was, “The hiking cycle is restarting,” and all risk assets took a hit.
On the day the rate hike news came out, BTC bottomed at 74,900 and is now still at 76,450. Why couldn’t it be pushed lower? Because the market had already priced in the worst expectations before the hike.
Second: the CLARITY Act was rejected, but the real nuclear catalyst is in the House of Representatives.
The Senate rejected the CLARITY Act’s procedural vote 49-50, stalling the market structure bill. In the same week, the House Financial Services Committee advanced the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act by 28-21.
Senate: regulatory legislation continues to be delayed (short-term bearish)
House: BTC obtained through forfeitures/reserves would be locked up for 20 years (mid-term nuclear-level bullish)
The regulatory narrative changed from “possibly becoming law” to “continuing to be delayed,” but the reserve narrative changed from “no one is discussing it” to “formally advancing through legislation.”
Third: ETFs are seeing outflows, but the structure is fundamentally intact.
U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $746 million in net outflows over two days, with IBIT and FBTC accounting for most redemptions. But cumulative net inflows are still $54.5 billion, ETF AUM is approximately $95 billion, and ETFs account for 6.2% of the market cap. The structure is fundamentally intact; marginal buying has simply paused.
You can judge the bull-bear battle yourself
On one side:
The restart of the rate-hiking cycle is unfavorable for the liquidity narrative in the short term
The CLARITY Act is stalled, disappointing regulatory expectations
ETFs saw $746 million in outflows over two days, pausing marginal buying
The price fell below the 76,700 active cost basis, and whales are distributing
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose above 5%, creating a headwind for risk assets
On the other side:
The rate-hike bearish catalyst has been realized, yet the price hasn’t fallen
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act advanced 28-21, locking up BTC for 20 years
ETFs have $54.5 billion in cumulative net inflows and $95 billion in AUM; the structure remains intact
The STH cost basis at 71,300 is a major on-chain defense level; the first test will likely trigger a rebound
The medium-term daily structure remains intact, with the August bottom at 62,000-65,000 still holding
Strong resistance: 77,100-77,500 (the floor of the previous range; it must reclaim it with volume to count as a recovery)
Secondary resistance: 78,000-78,600 (bear defense)
Major resistance: 79,500-82,200 (September supply zone + corporate treasury cost basis at 80,500)
Current pivot: 76,000-76,500 (bull-bear tug-of-war)
Near support: 75,500-75,000 (this week’s low; a break accelerates the decline)
On-chain support: 73,500 / 71,300 (STH cost basis, major defense level)
Deeper demand: 68,000-65,000
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Try small long positions at 75,500-75,800, with a stop-loss at 74,800 (based on the daily close). Reduce longs or try small short positions at 77,100-77,500, with a stop-loss at 78,100.
Swing traders:
Wait for a daily close above 77,100 before considering adding to positions; buy the retest at 76,500-76,800, with a stop-loss at 75,800 and targets of 78,600-80,000.
Long-term believers:
Accumulate in batches in the 73,500-71,300 range. 71,300 is a major on-chain defense level; the first test is more suitable for reducing shorts than adding to them. Hold for 1-2 years and bet on reserve legislation + ETF holdings + the halving cycle.
Bearish continuation scenario:
A 4H close below 75,000, followed by a rebound to 75,200-75,500 that fails; short targets are 73,500 → 71,300, with a stop-loss on a reclaim above 76,000. On the first test of 71,300, reduce shorts rather than add to them.
The rate hike was delivered, the bill was rejected, and ETFs saw outflows—after all three bombs exploded, BTC is still at 76,450. That’s what it means when the price should fall but doesn’t.
76,700 is the active cost basis, while 71,300 is the STH cost basis. Guess where institutions will buy?
BTC at 76,450 is the same asset as BTC at 120,000. What changes is not its value, but your emotions.
For the next 5-10 days, watch only two things:
Whether ETF outflows stop averaging $300 million per day
Whether the daily chart can reclaim 77,100
If neither happens, use a 75,000-77,500 grid. Add in the direction of the trend once they do.
At 76,450, are you willing to add to your position? $BTC $ETH $SOL #牛熊未定闲钱该放哪 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒

ARC’s launch has indeed been a case of starting strong and ending weak.
Yesterday, Circle’s USDC public chain ARC went live, and the opening buzz was quite strong, with several memes surging to million-dollar market caps.
I thought Robinhood’s liquidity might actually be siphoned off to some extent, but after one night, the hype had clearly cooled. There are barely any projects left with market caps in the tens of millions, and quite a few went straight to zero.
Ultimately, launching a new chain isn’t difficult, and generating hype isn’t difficult either—the hard part is keeping the liquidity there.
For now, RH’s core base remains quite solid. The broader market also began rebounding today, and $PONS stabilized before entering a consolidation phase. No more messing around for now; I’ll continue waiting on Robinhood.

Fun fact: 90% of people ended up losing money because they didn’t sell, thinking a 2.5% gain on the stock was too small.

The entire market is falling, but this one sector is rising.
Glassnode just released a set of data. Among the top 200 crypto assets by market cap, median prices are down 58% from their October 2025 highs. DeFi is down 27%. GameFi is down 74%—of the 3,200 blockchain gaming projects, 93% are already dead. Bitcoin is down 36%, while Ethereum and Dogecoin are both languishing below their previous highs.
Only one sector is standing above new highs: privacy.
It has gained 213% overall. It rose another 90% over the past 30 days, leading all sectors. Its total market cap grew from $7.1 billion a year ago to $33.6 billion—close to the size of the entire TRON network.
The altcoins in your hands are going to zero, while someone is quietly doubling their money in the privacy sector.
This sector has only one engine: ZEC.
A year ago, ZEC was just above $40. Now? Around $1,350, with a market cap of $22 billion. It has gained more than 2,300% in a year.
Its market cap ranking jumped directly from 82nd to 7th.
But ZEC accounts for 62% of the entire privacy sector’s market cap. XMR has doubled, DASH is up 71%, and ZEN is also rising, but even combined, they are not as large as ZEC alone.
This sector has height, but no breadth. One engine is pulling an entire train.
Why privacy? Why now?
Three drivers, and none can be missing.
First, ETFs have opened a door for traditional capital. On August 25, the Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) was listed on the NYSE. Previously, institutions wanting to buy ZEC had to manage their own private keys and bear custody risks themselves. Now? They can buy it directly through a brokerage account, just like buying Apple stock. A coin that has been delisted by 73 exchanges and singled out by FinCEN as “difficult to trace” is now packaged into a standardized product managed by BNY Mellon, custodied by Coinbase, and registered with the SEC.
Second, the privacy narrative is being repriced in the AI era. Grayscale’s logic is straightforward: when AI can link every one of your wallet addresses to exchanges, counterparties, and behavioral patterns, “selective privacy” goes from a fringe need to a real business. The share of shielded transactions on the ZEC chain has reached over 59%, while the shielded pool holds approximately 4.89 million ZEC, or 28.9% of the circulating supply. This is not just talking about privacy—money is actually moving into privacy pools.
Third, supply structure and a short squeeze. Like Bitcoin, ZEC uses PoW, has a 21 million supply cap, and undergoes regular halvings. After the November 2024 halving, the rate of new coin issuance was cut in half. When ZEC broke above $1,000 on September 4, around $34.5 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated. Covering shorts requires buying ZEC, buying ZEC pushes the price higher, and higher prices trigger more short liquidations—a positive feedback loop.
But don’t get carried away. There are three things you need to know.
First, the ETF’s $500 million in AUM is inflated. Grayscale’s ZCSH assets under management did indeed exceed $500 million, but regulatory filings show that $100 million came from a DCG-affiliated company—DCG is the parent company of Grayscale’s parent company. Excluding this related-party transaction, actual third-party inflows were approximately $70 million. The $500 million is the fund size, not a clear reflection of investor demand.
Second, on-chain usage has not fully kept pace with the price. ZEC is up 2,300%, but the share of shielded transactions has risen from approximately 11% a year ago to 28.9%. That is a significant increase, but not nearly as dramatic as the price gain. Some analyses point out that after breaking above $1,000, the rally has increasingly been driven by ETF funds and trading momentum rather than a corresponding expansion in actual usage demand.
Third, the sector is too narrow. Excluding ZEC, the privacy sector’s weighted portfolio is up 85% year-to-date and still outperforms Bitcoin. But ZEC’s 62% concentration means that if something goes wrong with ZEC, the narrative for the entire sector will be dragged down with it.
In a market where every asset is falling, the only rising sector will naturally attract the most attention.
But attention is cheap; capital flows are what’s real.
ZEC has both right now—the question is which one runs out first.
Would you buy ZEC now? Or do you think this rally has already peaked?#Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 #牛熊未定闲钱该放哪 $BTC #$ETH $ZEC

I’ve noticed that people around me who are truly lucky in life all share one amazing trait: they don’t care about 99% of things
Someone insults them today, and they forget about it the moment they turn around
A friend betrays them? Whatever—find another one
Their partner cheats? Perfect, get rid of a lousy person as soon as possible
It’s not that they have no temper or that they’re foolish
It’s that their energy is too precious to waste on this nonsense
They have an exceptionally broad-minded outlook
They focus only on a handful of things that truly matter
Such as whether they’re happy and whether they’ve made money
No matter how difficult things are for these people right now
In three to five years, they’ll definitely be moving upward
Because they never wear themselves down from within…

September is already prone to weakness, and with the Fed still hawkish, oil above 100, and the 10-year yield surging to nearly a 20-year high, further short-term downside is perfectly normal.
$SPY 750 was hit today. The next more realistic targets are 745 to 740.
740 is not a random call: the high-volume area is here, and so is the smart-money discount zone.
In the worst case, it could fall another 2% or so, and institutions will most likely step in to support it here. Until that level breaks, this is still a normal pullback within a bull market.
The broader daily structure is still intact, with higher lows since the March bottom. As long as 730 holds, especially the swing low at 729, there is still a chance of rallying back toward new highs near 800 before year-end.
The level that would truly change the script is 729. If it breaks, the large gap between 730 and 690 could easily be filled. After that, we could see 690 or 680, and in the worst case 660. That would not be a minor pullback; it would mean the broader structure is in trouble.
The monthly chart is still in a bullish cycle, so there is no need to panic-sell everything now.
Above 730, continue treating this as a pullback; if 730 breaks, increase cash, reduce positions, and reassess.
Both rallies and declines are part of the rhythm. Don’t let a single day’s action dictate your decisions.

It’s time to reap the results and settle the scores again. $RIVER Season 6 (S6) will end directly at the end of the month (September 30). If you haven’t maxed out your points yet, get on board quickly and fill in the gaps. To be honest, after following River for so long, what I admire most is their extremely consistent season mechanism. Each season has clear milestones and settles right on schedule. This level of execution is remarkably solid among Web3 projects today. On the product side, satUSD, Vault

Severe Bearish Divergence in the S&P 500—Preparing for a Crash?
1. S&P 500 Index $SPY
The broader market has been stuck in a frustrating sideways range for the past four or five months, with repeated false breakouts getting punished. It is now in the late stage of the cycle. Although a bearish divergence has formed, it may still make one last desperate push to a new high. If the top is already in place, it will next decline steadily toward the moving-average support level near 690. In the short term, there may be an opportunity for an oversold rebound around 754, where a measured-move target is located.
2. Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ
Technology stocks are weaker than the broader market, and their downside has not yet been fully released. The key level to watch is the critical support at 694. If it can stabilize and rebound, it may have a chance to rise toward 826. If support fails or the broader market tops out directly, it will continue falling toward 650 in search of support.
3. Russell 2000 Small-Cap Stocks $IWM
It is currently moving toward the 1-to-1 measured-move target at 280. There is a strong possibility of an oversold-rebound trading opportunity emerging around this level in the near term.
4. Financial Sector $XLF
Its trend is moving in sync with the broader market and has also fallen to the 1-to-1 measured-move target. In the short term, it is looking for a point at which the decline can stop and a rebound can begin.
5. Overall Portfolio Strategy $PORTFOLIO
In this kind of whipsawing market, do not stubbornly overcommit. Your portfolio must be allocated to balance offense and defense: Put part of it in high-growth stocks to capture upside volatility, while the other part must be allocated to defensive sectors for protection and risk avoidance.

One-sentence summary: Unless something unexpected happens, this round of adjustment will be relatively minor, with neither the corresponding depth (decline) nor breadth (duration) likely to be significant; just wait for the train to depart.

What happened? Why did the ARC Chain crash right after the founder appeared on a livestream? #arc

Today’s AI and U.S. stock information gap:
1. The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points! Its first rate hike since July 2023, with another hike possibly coming later
2. Trump blasts the move: Cut rates to 1% ASAP! Mortgages and car loans are getting more expensive after the hike, making Uncle Chuan’s homes even harder to sell
3. $SPCX surged 5%! Back above 150. Starship’s 14th test flight is scheduled for the 22nd, aiming to reach orbit for the first time and deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites. Musk also hinted at using chopsticks to catch the upper stage
4. $GOOGL released Gemini 3.8 Live, supporting real-time voice conversations and speaking while reasoning. It took second place in the Speech Agent Arena
5. $OpenAI quietly acquired Silicon Valley startup Glass Imaging for $300 million. It can automatically edit photos the moment the shutter is pressed—is it really that magical?

[Garrett Jin whale entity] is getting absolutely wrecked too. The more they short ZEC, the stronger it gets. ZEC has risen from $400 when they started shorting to nearly $1,400 now. Just last night, they added 5,000 ZEC ($6.26 million) to their short position at $1,252.5. They now have a 37,760 ZEC ($50.99 million) short position, with an unrealized loss of $25.85 million.

A whale opened a short on zcash:native at the top at 2 a.m., before the Fed’s interest rate decision was announced. However, ZEC continued to surge after the decision, and his $10.11 million position was fully liquidated, resulting in an $890,000 loss in 3 hours.
◎ At 11 p.m. last night, he opened a 10x short on 8,120 ZEC ($10.11 million) at $1,245.
◎ 3 hours later, the interest rate decision was announced, and ZEC rose above $1,390, fully liquidating his short position.

Chen Guilin’s Trading Notes: September 17, 2026 1. I haven’t properly written any trading notes for several days because I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop... (Actually, I’ve been so absorbed in gaming these past few days that I haven’t had much time to watch the market.)

I’ve seen many people saying that the bill also failed to pass, while the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate hike has already been implemented. Why hasn’t BTC fallen much? Because both the rate hike and the bill’s failure were expected by the market and had already been priced in through an earlier decline. A single rate hike isn’t that scary; what matters is how the market responds to expectations for the next hike. Trump should try to stimulate the market somehow, since the midterm elections are coming up soon. In addition, Japan’s rate meeting is tomorrow, and Japan will most likely hike rates as well. A short-term rise is probably off the table; once Japan finishes its hike, we can keep switching into sell-the-rally mode.

The Senate Closes Its Doors, the House Opens a Window: U.S. Crypto Legislation Is Shifting Gears
On September 15, the CLARITY Act went down in the Senate by 49:50. On Polymarket, its probability of becoming law this year plunged from above 30% straight to 5%.
Bitcoin immediately fell to around $75k, Coinbase dropped 6%, and Circle, Robinhood, and MicroStrategy were dragged down together.
Everyone thought U.S. crypto legislation was dead.
But within 24 hours, two House committees did two things—
On September 16, the Ways and Means Committee passed the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act by 38:5.
On September 16, the Financial Services Committee advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act by 28:21, writing a strategic Bitcoin reserve into federal law.
Why did CLARITY die? Because it was too big.
Its 635 pages crammed in market structure, DeFi regulation, stablecoin yield, ethics provisions, developer protections, and Agriculture Committee jurisdiction.
Democrats and Republicans completely broke down over whether the president could profit from the crypto industry. Warner’s exact words were: “The conflict-of-interest issue has not been resolved.” Republicans had already swallowed 80% of Trump’s ethics proposal, yet Democrats still gave it zero votes of support.
The Senate requires 60 votes. Republicans have only 53 seats. At least seven Democrats had to defect. Not one did.
On the day the 49:50 vote brought it to an end, the crypto industry’s path through the Senate was blocked by its own 635-page ambition.
But Washington found another route.
The first route: taxes.
H.R.10357 is 114 pages, five times slimmer than CLARITY.
On-chain network fees under $10 per transaction are tax-exempt. Wash-sale rules are extended to digital assets, but qualified dollar stablecoins are exempt. It clarifies the tax treatment of mining and staking income, broker reporting rules, and the treatment of lending transfers.
The key is the vote: 38 to 5.
Republicans voted for it, and Democrats voted for it too. All five opposing votes came from Democrats, but the makeup of the 38 votes in favor means the two parties reached a consensus on how crypto taxes should be collected.
This is not legislation. It is driving piles into a crack.
If CLARITY cannot resolve “market structure” and “presidential ethics,” then Washington can first resolve a question no one can avoid—taxes. You can argue over DeFi regulation, but you cannot leave every U.S. crypto user unsure how to file taxes.
The second route: a Bitcoin reserve.
ARMA’s vote tells another story: 28 to 21, a purely partisan advance.
There are 23 co-sponsors: 22 Republicans and 1 Democrat. None of the 23 Democrats on the Financial Services Committee signed on.
Republicans hold a 30 to 23 majority on the committee, so the bill could pass without Democratic votes.
This is an entirely different strategy from the tax bill.
The tax bill is expanding consensus, while ARMA is entrenching division.
Why? Because “how Bitcoin is traded” is a consumer-protection issue that both parties can discuss. “Whether the federal government should lock Bitcoin onto its balance sheet for 20 years” is a fiscal and monetary issue, and the coalition breaks apart immediately here.
ARMA requires the Treasury Department to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve within 180 days. The approximately 328k BTC held by the federal government would be locked up for at least 20 years and could not be sold, with audits disclosed quarterly and proof of reserves verified by an independent third party.
No new coins would be purchased, but none would be sold either.
The government would not become a marginal buyer, but it also could not become a forced seller. For an asset capped at 21 million coins, legally locking up the federal holdings for 20 years means this portion of the supply exits circulation for a generation.
There would be no new sovereign buying pressure in the short term, but the legislation’s first priority is to prevent a future president from dumping all the BTC.
The difference between an executive order and statutory law is just one thing: a future president cannot revoke it with a single order.
The current landscape of U.S. crypto legislation is this—
CLARITY hit a wall in the Senate, but the tax bill secured bipartisan support of 38:5 in committee, while ARMA advanced along party lines by 28:21.
If “comprehensive regulation” cannot be resolved, then first resolve “how taxes are collected” and “how coins are held.”
The major bill cannot get through the Senate’s 60-vote gate.
The smaller bills can get through the committee-majority gate.
The Ways and Means Committee’s 38:5 vote and the Financial Services Committee’s 28:21 vote both required no cross-party coalition.
This is not settling for second best. This is Washington finding a side door next to the Senate’s 60-vote threshold—breaking 635 pages into 114 pages and taking them down one by one with committee majorities.
CLARITY’s failure is not the end. It is the dividing line where U.S. crypto legislation shifted from an “all-in-one solution” to “taking them down one by one.”
The market-structure bill will not come back to life in the short term. But how taxes are collected and how coins are held—these two issues are now advancing at full speed at the committee level.
One is expanding consensus; the other is entrenching division. The former can survive, while the latter can move fast.
Which path do you think U.S. crypto legislation will take? Will taxes be enacted first, or will the reserve become law first?#Gate广场中秋团圆局 #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #每周来晒

After a gap of more than three years, the Federal Reserve has finally raised interest rates again.
This 25-basis-point hike brings the federal funds target range up to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.
However, the hike was largely within market expectations, and after the decision was announced, the market did not see any particularly significant volatility.
The dot plot is still more noteworthy:
The median interest rate projection for 2026 indicates that another rate hike is highly likely within the year. Currently, 16 policymakers expect at least one more rate hike this year.
Why has the Fed suddenly shifted back toward raising rates?
The core reason comes down to two words: inflation.
In particular, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has continued to push up energy prices recently, while crude oil prices are adding further pressure to inflation expectations. If geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices retreat later on, relieving inflationary pressure, the Fed’s policy room will naturally reopen.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 U.S. House committee advances the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill.
The legislation is moving forward after a committee vote, bringing the proposed federal Bitcoin Reserve framework one step closer to becoming law.
Another major development for Bitcoin and the broader crypto industry 🇺🇸₿
#Bitcoin #btc #BTCDrops3.3%

Real talk on $STONK
The ecosystem is the easy part to love: launch a coin paired to an RWA or whatever and holders earn that asset. The joke becomes a machine.
Native $STONK doesn't have that yet. Fixed supply, fee funded burns, no yield, no claim on the underlying stocks. A 60% buyback is fine but it's not a reason to hold.
What would actually grow this:
Split fees three ways burn / RWA vault ops and stream the vault portion to staked $STONK in the actual stock tokens
Publish NAV per token so the price has a floor beyond sentiment
Hard lock that fee split so the flywheel doesn't run on operator goodwill
Pay launch slots, featured placements, and fee discounts in locked $STONK
Route a small cut of every new coin launch to $STONK stakers, so the token becomes the index of the whole platform
Burns just shrink supply. This would pay holders in the same RWAs the platform is built around.
Not trying to farm a narrative trying to make $STONK the equity of the factory, not just a spectator token.
If the team or anyone building on this wants to pressure test the idea, I'm in.

$ZEC Pumping Chart Update
Who caught this $ZEC move?
The chart has already made a strong move from the lower zones and is now trading around $1,322, with a recent high near $1,387.
Congrats to everyone who caught the move and is already in profit.
Half Profit Zone: $1,350 – $1,385
Next Targets:
TP1: $1,450
TP2: $1,500
Resistance: $1,385 – $1,500
Support: $1,145 – $1,180
Major Support: $780 – $820
If price gets rejected around $1,350–$1,385, taking some profit makes sense. No need to chase after a big move.
Let’s see if $ZEC can hold above the recent high and continue higherrr
#GateSquareMidAutumnReunion #CLARITYActFailsToPass ‌