Don't expect the Federal Reserve to save you! The first thing Waller did after taking office: Burst the bubble
The script has changed, brothers.
Early this morning, two pieces of news hit simultaneously, and the crypto world was still sleeping—
Waller officially replaced Powell, taking the chair of the Federal Reserve.
On the same day, the Fed's most dovish board member, Mester, announced her resignation.
You read that right, on the same day.
It's like a carefully staged "whodunit": the hawk king ascends, the dove queen departs, and there's no farewell banquet arranged.
First, let's talk about who this Mester is
You might not have heard her name much, but in the past six FOMC meetings, she voted against rate cuts six times.
Six times. Unanimous opposition.
She is the last "dovish" relic inside the Fed. As long as she's there, Waller's hawkish policies will always face an opposition vote.
Now, this stone has moved away on its own.
Waller's last internal resistance to hawkish policies is gone.
"Fed Put Options," completely invalidated
Let me explain what "Fed Put Options" means.
Simply put: in the past, whenever the market fell, Powell would panic, cut rates, flood liquidity, and bail out the market.
Everyone knew—don't fear the fall, Daddy will come to rescue.
So in recent years, whether in stocks or crypto, people dared to leverage heavily, chase highs, and "buy the dip," with one core belief: the Fed won't let the market die.
Now Waller is here.
Who is this person? He is the most hawkish among inflation hawks. To him, controlling inflation is the top priority. If the stock market drops 30%, Bitcoin halves, that's your problem.
He won't rescue you.
This "Fed Put" policy is officially nullified.
How will asset prices move?
1. US stocks: Tech growth stocks take the first hit
In the past, people bought tech stocks and AI concepts, betting that "rates will eventually fall, valuations will hold."
Now, the hope for rate cuts has been personally snuffed out by Waller. High valuations in an environment without easing expectations are the biggest risk.
Nasdaq? Be cautious.
2. US bonds: Yields stay high and flat, inversion deepens
Short-term rates can't go down, long-term rates are suppressed by economic expectations, and yield curve inversion will become the new normal.
Forget about strategies that profit from long-term bonds' interest spreads.
3. US dollar: Structural strengthening
Higher and longer US interest rates will lead global funds to flow back into dollar assets.
Assets priced in USD like Bitcoin and gold will face ongoing "exchange rate suppression."
Key date: June 16-17, first major test
Waller's first FOMC meeting is scheduled for those days.
The market still doesn't know how hawkish he really is—whether he's a "textbook hawk" or a "battle-hardened hawk."
But from now until mid-June, the entire market will be trading "tightening expectations."
Volatility (VIX) will fluctuate like a roller coaster.
Brothers going long, buckle up.
Strategy advice: Stop dreaming
I know many are still waiting for "rate cuts and liquidity injections in the second half, a new bull market."
Wake up.
The first thing Waller did after taking office was not to flood the market with liquidity, but to burst the bubble.
Reduce holdings of long-duration assets: those projects promising "multiples in three years," put them aside for now.
Increase cash or short-term bonds: liquidity is your only shield.
Prepare for a "hard landing" narrative: it's not a question of if, but when.
Finally, one last word
I'm not bearish; I'm telling you: the game has changed.
The core logic of the past three years' bull market—"the Fed will bail out the market"—is dead.
Next comes an era of high volatility, high uncertainty, and strong dollar suppression.
If you want to survive in this market, you must forget the "waiting for Daddy to rescue" mindset and learn to find your own food in the storm.
Don't dream of liquidity injections saving you; Waller won't come to rescue.
Do you think after Waller takes office, Bitcoin will break 50k first or 70k?
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