Retail investors panic selling vs. institutions adding positions against the trend: who is really the final bag-holder?
The imitation season hasn't arrived yet, but many people's positions have already collapsed.
The market is teetering, new retail investors are cutting losses, old investors are cursing. Just as everyone is watching the K-line for a bottom—there's a sum of money quietly, steadily, and against the trend, buying into billions.
In the past half month, the general sentiment around me has been like this—
"With such poor market sentiment, can HYPE stay unaffected?"
"Even if they come in, it's just institutions fighting each other, all old money with new packaging."
It sounds reasonable. But data doesn't lie.
【Data Counterattack | Argument One】
Since the launch of 21Shares' THYP and Bitwise's BHYP, there have been 8 consecutive trading days of net inflows, with zero outflows. On May 26 alone, the net inflow exceeded $20 million, setting the record for the highest single-day inflow into HYPE-related products.
As of the close on May 27, the total net inflow has surpassed $100 million.
Zero outflows. Eight days in a row.
The market hasn't missed sell-off opportunities—if you really think "institutions have long prepared a run-away script," there was a chance every day during these eight days.
【Data Counterattack | Argument Two】
Some say ETF size is still small, and large capital inflows and outflows could crush the price.
But have you calculated that as of May 27, the total net asset value of HYPE spot ETFs has reached $119 million, with a net asset ratio of 0.89%? The market capitalization absorbed in the first 10 trading days accounts for about 1.04%, surpassing the performance of early BTC, ETH, and SOL spot ETFs during the same period.
More importantly, Bitwise did an action most people overlook: regularly buying 10% of the management fee of BHYP into HYPE and depositing it into the company's balance sheet. This means that regardless of market sentiment, an institution-level, sustainable buying pressure is forming.
You say, is this something speculative funds can do? Or a sign of long-term position building?
【Structural Demand | Argument Three】
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said it very straightforwardly: Hyperliquid allocates 99% of trading fees to buy back HYPE tokens, which is a rigid mechanism of not taking income, only buying and not selling. Hougan estimates Hyperliquid's annual revenue between $800 million and $1 billion, and the current buy-in price of HYPE corresponds to a PE ratio of 10 to 14 times this revenue stream.
In other words, this logic is completely different from early DeFi tokens—it's not a narrative coin driven by hype, but an institutional-grade asset supported by clear value return.
Now the question comes back to you:
Same data, same price.
Retail investors panic sell, institutions add positions against the trend.
— Retail: "The market is falling, why should it rise?" Institutions: "It's precisely the divergence that generates excess returns";
— Retail: "ETF small capital inflows and outflows cause volatility," institutions respond with eight consecutive days of "not selling";
— Retail is still waiting for a certain signal, while institutions have already locked in a 10% management fee for continuous buybacks of this structural position.
Who is more likely to be wrong?
I won't give any buy or sell advice. Just one thing to say:
History doesn't repeat, but the chip structure will change hands at the bottom.
The real moment to be cautious isn't now—it's in the coming weeks, when the daily inflow data of the HYPE ETF first shows a disruption. That will be the moment you need to stop and seriously reflect on your positions.
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