*Have you cut your losses on the $80 SOL?*
Fallen from 146 to 80, halved again and again, you've held for 5 months. Last night, it dropped another 3%, with trading volume expanding to 3.1 billion, and everyone shouting "SOL will return to 70." But just now, an on-chain ETF fund quietly flowed in with $580 million.
First, look at the surface: it’s fallen, but it’s not completely collapsed.
In the past 24 hours, it’s down 3%, weekly down 8%, monthly down 12%, directly halved from the January high of 146, and 73% below the all-time high of 293. But with a 24-hour trading volume of 3.15 billion, no volume decline, the candlestick chart shows: the 78-82 dollar range has held for three weeks. MACD is negative but starting to flatten, RSI at 41 approaching oversold, CCI at -82 on the edge of oversold territory.
First thing: ETF funds quietly entering the market, yet you’re staring at the candlestick and complaining.
In May, SOL ETF recorded a monthly net inflow of $115 million — the strongest signal since 2025.
PayPal PYUSD merchants pilot on Solana, SoFi launches bank’s first stablecoin SoFiUSD, Cash App lands USDC with zero fees.
Second, Solana’s speed is about to revolutionize your understanding.
- Firedancer has covered 20% of active validators**, and the mainnet is stable.
- Alpenglow consensus upgrade** entered community testing in May, aiming to reduce final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 50 milliseconds.
- Solana stablecoin weekly trading volume has already surpassed ETH (32.6% vs 27.8%).
- In tokenized assets, Solana dominates with 97% of transaction volume.
Third, a critical technical signal has appeared that must be paid attention to.
The $78-82 range is the trading cluster from December 2025, and also the strong support during this round of decline.
The daily MA50 (86.4) has a death cross with MA200 (104.9)—a classic bear market signal, but the longer the death cross persists in consolidation, the higher the chance of reversal.
Decisive battle between bulls and bears, you decide.
On one side:
- $115 million net inflow into SOL ETF in May, real institutional money.
- Firedancer + Alpenglow upgrades implemented, speed surpassing all L1s.
- Stablecoin trading volume surpassing ETH, adopted by PayPal, SoFi, Cash App.
- TVL at $5.36 billion, steady as ever, ecosystem intact.
- Strong support at 78-82, tested three times without breaking.
On the other side:
- Meme hype fading, short-term speculative funds fleeing.
- BTC still oscillating around 73-74k, once it breaks 70k, SOL will collapse first.
- Federal Reserve’s rate cuts slower than expected, risk assets under pressure.
- Resistance at 85, 90, 96 — each layer a pile of corpses.
Key level: 80, just 5 points away from the critical 85 line.
Resistance above: 85-86 (first hurdle) → 90-96 (upper bound of the range) → 120 → 160
Support below: 78-79 → 70-72 (extreme case)
Aggressive players:
Buy in stages at current 79-81, allocate 50%, stop-loss at 77.5, first target to take half at 85. After breaking 85 with volume, add positions chasing 90-96, stop-loss at 83.
Conservative players:
Wait for the 78-79 golden zone to deploy 30-40% in one go, target 95-105, then watch for 160. Or wait until the daily close above 85.5 to enter, avoiding the head, aiming for the body.
Bearish:
Not recommended to heavily short. The fundamentals are too strong; if Alpenglow’s test exceeds expectations or ETF suddenly explodes in volume, shorts could be wiped out instantly.
Risk control rules:
- Total position no more than 40%
- Leverage no more than 3x
- If BTC drops below 70k, reduce positions unconditionally
SOL now is like SOL at the end of 2023—
99% of people think “Solana is done, meme is gone, it’s zero,” but then institutions entered, pushing
#Gate正式推出股票交易 it from $8 to $293.
