Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Discover crypto KOL insights, community sentiment, emerging market trends, and industry trend analysis.
DirectorAnnie
If you are 22 years old this year and start from scratch, what would you do?
Dr. Kong, who founded two publicly listed companies @JackClawAI:
Step 1: Start with a small niche that can make money, even if it's a $500 OpenClaw assembly.
Step 2: Upgrade along the demand, improving while working—Token services, AI intelligent agent services.
Step 3: Continuously practice in a rapidly growing track, so that the red profits of opportunities will hit you!
0
Mining_sLittleSheep
$3.60 UNI, do you dare to chase?

First look at the market: UNI is staging the most aggressive "comeback" of 2026.

From $2.7 directly to $3.7, a 22% increase in 24 hours, seven consecutive bullish days on the daily chart. Trading volume is twice the usual. BTC is sideways at $65,000, ETH has fallen below $1900, but it has reversed against the trend with a gain of over 20%.

This is not an ordinary rebound. This is DeFi signaling to the market: I’m not dead yet.

First thing: Standard Chartered's first coverage, meaning is unusual

On June 15, Standard Chartered’s global digital asset research head Geoff Kendrick released a report, initiating coverage on UNI for the first time.

Price path provided:

End of 2026: $6.50

End of 2027: $20

End of 2028: $40

End of 2029: $65

End of 2030: $100

Core logic of the report: Tokenized assets will grow from the current $340 billion to $4 trillion by the end of 2028. By 2030, the proportion of active tokenized assets in DeFi will increase from 3.5% to 30%, corresponding to $2.7 trillion.

The report also predicts ETH reaching $40k and BTC reaching $500,000 by 2030.

Second thing: Tokenized assets are already online, not just empty promises

On June 12, Uniswap officially launched tokenized stocks of SpaceX, Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia. Users can trade these traditional stocks directly on Uniswap Web App, wallets, and APIs.

As of June, RWA pools have completed over $9.1 billion in trading volume, involving 2.6 million transactions. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund has already made these tradable via UniswapX.

Third thing: Smart money is already buying up

On-chain data shows that “BTC OG insider whale” agent Garret Jin has added over 366,423 UNI long positions, more than doubling. He is also increasing his holdings. He still holds more than 5 times long BTC and 2 times long ZEC.

The whale’s average cost is only $3.138, with extremely high control. The area around $3.65-$3.70 is a major liquidation zone for shorts.

Bull vs. bear, see for yourself

One side:

Standard Chartered first coverage, target $100, 40x upside

Tokenized stocks are online, $9.1 billion+ RWA trading volume

Seven consecutive bullish days, volume surging

“Insider whale” adding 360k UNI longs

The other side:

RSI over 85, extremely overbought

Up 44% in 7 days, short-term overextension

Some analysts believe this is a “short covering trap”

CoinCodex predicts a fall to $1.84 by year-end

Key level at $3.6, only 10% away from $4.0

Resistance above: $3.70-$3.80 (liquidation zone) → $4.00 → $4.31-$4.77

Support below: $3.20-$3.40 (correction zone) → $2.90 (strong bottom)

Short-term (1-7 days): don’t chase highs, wait for a pullback

Entry: buy in stages around $3.20-$3.40

Stop-loss: $2.85-$2.90, exit decisively if broken

Target: $3.80-$4.20 (take profit in stages)

Mid to long-term (1-6 months): buy on dips, hold tight

Add-on zone: $2.80-$3.30

Mid-term target: $6.50 (Standard Chartered 2026 target)

Long-term target: $10+ (Shanzhai season + value capture landing)

Position size no more than 15-25% of total funds

Risk warning:

High probability of a sharp pullback after today’s surge—profit-taking + overbought

RSI over 85, possible flash crash of 10-15% at any time

If $2.90 breaks, may retest $2.50 or lower

Don’t go all-in, don’t use high leverage, don’t get emotionally attached to institutions

UNI has been below $3 for a whole half year. Everyone thought “DeFi is dead.”

Standard Chartered drops a report, and in two days, it surges over 30%.

The most expensive thing in crypto isn’t the chips, it’s your belief that it’s dead, only to find out it’s alive when #我的Gate交易时刻 you’re not on the train.
BTC-0.67%
SOL-0.77%
UNI+3.05%
0
GateUser-d0dc13e9
Continue adding at this position: base:0x3722264ab15a1dfce5a5af89e6547f7949a8aba3 0x3722264aB15a1dfCe5a5af89e6547F7949A8ABA3 Everyone is waiting for official updates and news. Currently missing are updates on token use, roadmap, partnerships, and other aspects. I believe that the lack of these details has triggered selling and market impatience. But once properly announced, an unimaginable pump.
1
Mining_sLittleSheep
Woqu~wataa
Is it really okay to leave it like this on the street?🤤
0
GateUser-d0dc13e9
I found that there’s still room for arbitrage in the World Cup. Just now, in the Austria vs. Jordan match in the second half, there was a goal like this: the score was 1:1 at the time, then Austria took a shot and scored. I was watching the predict prediction market, and it immediately lowered the win/draw odds—if it ended in a draw, it reached 1.9X. Then the referee reviewed the VR replay and found that the goal wasn’t right; it looked like the ball first hit the hand—there was a handball before the shot went in—so they wanted to cancel it, but it took a long time; they reviewed it for about 3.
1
Bit_Bull
bitcoin:native has a massive resistance till $72,000 level.
This is exactly the zone where I'm planning to short again.
Don't believe in permabulls as the bottom isn't in yet.
BTC-0.65%
1
byte_drift1
⚠️ $BTC ‌ and $ETH ‌ just broke key psychological levels.

Market update:

• $BTC < $65K
• $ETH < $1,800
• $42M in long liquidations over the past hour

Volatility is back, and leveraged traders are feeling the impact first.

#TradFiCFDGoldMasters
#PredictWorldCup🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿vs🇭🇷
#GateSpotVolumeLeadsGlobalGrowth
BTC-0.67%
ETH-1.26%
1
GateUser-d0dc13e9
Insiders reveal: Polymarket and Base are unlikely to have an airdrop.
1
Mining_sLittleSheep
$72 HYPE, are you chasing it?

First look at the market: HYPE is currently staging the strongest "decoupling performance" of 2026.

BTC is struggling around 66,000, ETH has fallen below 1900, but it has independently surged 28%, up 62% in a month, 229% in half a year, with a market cap reaching 18.5 billion, breaking into the top 10. Yesterday it hit a new high of 76.9, today it slightly retraced to 72, with 24-hour trading volume of 1.5-2 billion USD.

Others are waiting for the wind, but it itself is a typhoon eye.

First thing: institutions are treating it as "the next SOL" to grab

Since the launch of the spot ETFs by Bitwise and 21Shares in May, they have accumulated net inflows of 150-170 million USD, with a single-day high of 17 million, outperforming BTC and ETH ETFs in stages. AUM rapidly expanded to over 200 million.

In traditional finance eyes, Hyperliquid is the "gold standard of on-chain order books"—self-built L1, HyperBFT consensus, CEX-level experience + decentralized settlement, no rivals in this track.

Second thing: Arthur Hayes bought in, shorts exploded

On-chain data confirmed yesterday: Arthur Hayes-related wallet bought 3.16 million USD worth of HYPE, directly triggering 11 million USD in short liquidations. A classic "big shot gets in + shorts explode in succession" combo.

CZ also publicly praised, "Hyperliquid is impressive." Such recognition, in other projects, would be enough to hype for a year; for HYPE, it's just icing on the cake.

Third thing: but don’t forget, today is the FOMC meeting

The Federal Reserve is meeting today, with new Chair Warsh making his first appearance. Market expects interest rates to stay at 3.5%-3.75%, but inflation remains sticky at 3-4%, and the dot plot is likely to be hawkish.

BTC is now fluctuating around 65,000-66,000. If Warsh signals any "no rate cuts this year," risk assets will come under pressure across the board. Although HYPE has decoupled, it can’t be immune to the overall market forever.

Bull-bear showdown, see for yourself

One side:

Spot ETF attracting 170 million, institutional allocation accelerating

Arthur Hayes + CZ endorsing, top-tier traffic support

Buyback burns continue to deflate, real income support

+7% in 7 days, +62% in a month, independent bull market

Other side:

Today’s FOMC, hawkish risks

Profit-taking after ATH, short-term selling pressure

FDV reaching 70 billion, unlocking pressure hanging overhead

If BTC drops below 65,000, HYPE will find it hard to stay immune

Key levels:

Resistance: 76.9 (ATH) → 80 (psychological barrier) → 90-100 (ultimate bullish target)

Support: 70-72 (current demand zone) → 65-66 (strong support, bullish lifeline) → 52-55 (deep correction zone)

Main trend (mainstream positions):

Accumulation zone: 68-72, buy in batches, add on 65-66

First target: 80 (short-term)

Mid-term target: 90-100

Stop-loss: If it effectively breaks below 65, must exit, no hesitation

Position: total 5-15%, do not go all-in

Short-term swing:

Break above 77 to chase longs, stop loss at 74

During high volatility, take profits in batches, don’t be greedy

Risk hedging:

Today focus on the FOMC statement, if hawkish surprises, halve positions

Break below 65, watch and wait, re-enter at 55-60

Single trade risk no more than 1-2% of total funds

HYPE now is like SOL in 2021—

Everyone is asking, "Can I buy after it’s already gone up so much?" then it rose from 30 to 200.

The most painful thing in a bull market isn’t losing money, it’s watching others make #我的Gate交易时刻 money while you never got in.
BTC-0.67%
ETH-1.26%
HYPE+0.24%
0
CryptoXLARGE
In December 2020, an anonymous 4chan user predicted $BTC next 6 major moves.
Everyone laughed.
Then he went 6 for 6.
✅ $40k
✅ $33k
✅ $68k
✅ $16k
✅ $73k
Every major top.
Every major correction.
Years before they happened.
Only one prediction remains:
🎯 October 2026 → #Bitcoin $145,000
We are 4 months away from finding out whether this was the greatest call in crypto history… 👀
BTC-0.67%
1
Crypto7777
Blue V users aiming for 10,000 followers, come on over!
Mutual follows with instant replies, never pretend not to see or miss follow back #BlueVMutualFollow
If you haven't reached 10,000 followers yet, just comment below, follow me first, I’ll follow back one by one, and let's grow our followers together
1
MarkEth
WHY 90% OF TRADERS FAIL??? ❗❗❗

I'm seeing everyone talking traders failure comes from picking the wrong coin.

‎

‎It doesn't.

‎

‎It comes from the wrong habits.

‎

‎Let's break it down step by step.

‎

‎1. They Trade Without a Business Plan

‎

‎A restaurant doesn't open without a menu.

‎

‎A trader shouldn't enter the market without rules.

‎

‎Most traders:

‎• Wake up

‎• Open charts

‎• Take random trades

‎

‎Professionals:

‎• Define entry criteria

‎• Define risk per trade

‎• Define exit conditions

‎

‎Fix: Create a simple checklist before every trade.

‎

‎No checklist = No trade.

‎

‎

‎2. They Focus on Profit Instead of Process

‎

‎Imagine a cricket player thinking about the trophy during every ball.

‎

‎Performance collapses.

‎

‎The same happens in trading.

‎

‎Losing traders ask:

‎"How much can I make?"

‎

‎Winning traders ask:

‎"Did I follow my system?"

‎

‎Fix: Measure success by execution quality, not daily profit.

‎

‎

‎3. They Risk Too Much on One Idea

‎

‎One trade should never decide your future.

‎

‎Yet many traders put 20-50% of their capital into a single position.

‎

‎Even great setups fail.

‎

‎Fix: Risk small enough that one loss feels normal.

‎

‎Survival is the first goal.

‎

‎

‎4. They Need To Be Right

‎

‎The market doesn't pay you for being correct.

‎

‎It pays you for managing risk.

‎

‎Many traders hold losing positions because they want validation.

‎

‎Professionals accept being wrong quickly.

‎

‎Fix: Treat stop-losses as business expenses, not personal attacks.

‎

‎

‎5. They Copy Trades Instead of Learning

‎

‎Copying a trade is easy.

‎

‎Understanding it is difficult.

‎

‎When conditions change, copied traders panic because they don't know why they entered.

‎

‎Fix: Before entering any trade, explain the setup in one sentence.

‎

‎If you can't explain it, don't trade it.

‎

‎

‎6. They Ignore Their Emotions

‎

‎Fear causes early exits.

‎

‎Greed causes late exits.

‎

‎Revenge causes bad entries.

‎

‎Most losses happen after emotions take control.

‎

‎Fix: After every trade, write:

‎• What happened

‎• What you felt

‎• What you'll improve

‎

‎Patterns become obvious fast.

‎

‎

‎7. They Expect Fast Wealth

‎

‎A new gym member doesn't expect six-pack abs in two weeks.

‎

‎But new traders expect financial freedom in a month.

‎

‎That expectation creates overtrading and frustration.

‎

‎Fix: Think in years, not weeks.

‎

‎Compounding rewards patience.

‎

‎

‎

‎The Reality

‎

‎The top 10% aren't smarter.

‎

‎They simply:

‎✓ Follow rules

‎✓ Protect capital

‎✓ Stay patient

‎✓ Learn from mistakes

‎✓ Repeat what works

‎

‎Trading success isn't built on one big win.

‎

‎It's built on hundreds of disciplined decisions.

‎

‎
1
Mining_sLittleSheep
South Korea's largest asset management company has entered the scene, but the "soul" of RWA might be lost.

$43 billion.

This is the current size of the RWA tokenization market today.

A 37% growth in 180 days. Even as Bitcoin hovers around $65,700, half-dead, institutional funds are still rushing onto the chain recklessly.

Yesterday, another major player entered.

South Korea's largest asset management firm, Mirae Asset, officially signed an MOU with Ondo Finance to bring its Global X ETF product line onto the blockchain.

You heard that right. The South Korean giant with $72.1 billion in assets under management plans to tokenize AI ETFs, blockchain ETFs, and robotics ETFs.

This is Asia's first mainstream asset management institution to go live on-chain.

Once the news broke, the community was buzzing—"RWA is about to explode!" "Traditional finance is finally acknowledging it!"

All I want to say is: you're celebrating too early.

First, understand why Mirae Asset is here.

It's not for the ideals of "decentralization," nor for the "Web3 revolution" sentiment.

They clearly stated in the press release: Tokenized ETFs can enable 24-hour trading and T+0 settlement.

In plain language: my product can sell a few more hours, and money can clear a few days faster.

That's it.

Ondo Global Markets' TVL has already surpassed $1 billion, offering over 260 tokenized securities, with a total trading volume exceeding $18 billion.

Do you think these numbers are driven by "crypto natives"? No, it's all institutions stacking up.

BlackRock is pushing, Franklin Templeton is pushing, and now Mirae Asset is in the game.

But here’s the question—when these players come in, whose rules will they play by?

RWA has two core principles:

One called "compliance"—assets with underlying value, audits, legal protections, institutions are willing to invest.

The other called "decentralization"—transparent on-chain, permissionless, globally accessible, which is the foundation of crypto.

Players like Mirae Asset care about the first.

And the second? They simply don’t care.

You think they’ll accept DAO governance? Tolerate impermanent loss? Hand over assets to smart contracts without any backdoors?

Dream on.

What Mirae Asset wants is: compliant channels + settlement efficiency + regulatory endorsement. As for whether assets are on Ethereum or Solana, that’s just a technical choice for them.

What does this lead to?

The RWA track is being transformed into a "traditional financial market wrapped in blockchain."

Assets remain the same (government bonds, ETFs, commodities).

Rules remain the same (KYC, AML, custody).

Players remain the same (BlackRock, Mirae Asset, Franklin Templeton).

The only difference is: settlement is a little faster.

So what does this mean for us ordinary investors?

Two harsh truths:

First, the "retail dividend" of RWA is disappearing.

When Mirae Asset brings Global X ETF onto the chain, do you think you can share in the $72.1 billion asset management dividend with just $0.38 ONDO?

Think again. When institutions come in, they’re here to make money off you, not to help you make money.

Ondo’s TVL has doubled since the start of the year, but what about ONDO’s price? It’s fallen from $0.78 to $0.38.

TVL has increased, but the token price has halved. That’s the cost of “institutionalization.”

Second, the real “RWA Alpha” is in places institutions don’t care about.

Token Terminal data shows that tokenized assets account for nearly 80% of the RWA market. The "low-hanging fruit" like government bonds and money market funds have already been picked.

But tokenized stocks only make up 3.8%.

That’s the real growth potential.

Mirae Asset is starting with US stock ETFs, and next plans to expand into Canada, Europe, Australia, Japan, and Hong Kong.

When global ETFs are flowing on-chain and 24-hour trading becomes standard—this will be the true breakout point for RWA.

But when that day arrives, will the market be dominated by projects like Ondo and Securitize, which are "crypto-native," or by the chains issued by giants like BlackRock and Mirae Asset themselves?

The answer? Up to you.

“When institutions come in, they wave the flag of ‘revolution’; once settled, you realize they’ve just changed tables and continue to control the game.”

The $43 billion in RWA is just the beginning.

But the script of this show might not be #我的Gate交易时刻 the version we want to see.
SPCX+0.78%
BTC-0.67%
ONDO-0.29%
1
Lenadunhamm
$BILL — 1H Chart
Bias: Bullish / Long

* Entry Zone: $0.0600–$0.0615
* Stop Loss: $0.0540 (below the recent higher low and key support)

Take-Profit Targets:

* TP1: $0.0650
* TP2: $0.0710
* TP3: $0.0780

Setup Thesis:
BILL is holding above short term support after establishing a series of higher lows on the 1-hour timeframe. Momentum remains constructive, with buyers defending the $0.060 area and pushing toward a continuation breakout. A successful reclaim of nearby resistance could trigger the next leg higher while maintaining an attractive risk-to-reward profile.

Trade management: consider securing partial profits at TP1 and moving the stop loss to breakeven once momentum confirms.#MyGateTradeStory #GateSpotVolumeLeadsGlobalGrowth
BILL-4.10%
2
Mining_sLittleSheep
8–10 PM Wallet New Issue
255 points + 3 BNB, split evenly by proportion
0
Donglai
If the World Cup could only predict one champion team, I would bet on China.
Don’t laugh.
I know how long the Chinese national team has been struggling these years.
But a few days ago, I came across a video
reviewing the achievements of the national team in the 1980s—
Runner-up in the 1984 Asian Cup, Jia Xiuquan was named the best defender of the tournament.
In 1987, a 2-0 away win against Japan, qualifying for the Seoul Olympics.
In 1983, 5-0 against Japan in the Nehru Cup.
In 1988, a 3-0 away win against Japan in the Kirin Cup.
In 1990, winning the Emperor’s Cup 1-0.
Back then, we were a mountain that Japan couldn’t surpass!!!
I’m not saying this for nostalgia.
It’s because Gate organized a World Cup prediction activity this year, and I really want them to include the Chinese team, haha.
I support the Chinese team just because—no reason needed.
I’m very happy to receive football and jersey merchandise sent by Gate, just in time for Dragon Boat Festival to show off.
I used AI to put a jersey on my avatar, took a long time to get it right, but the result is just so-so!!!
@Gate @Gate_zh @gate_kol26
#GateZongBetChampion
1
Mining_sLittleSheep
Oil prices crashed, can BTC rise? Naive. Tonight, Wosh will show you what a “false positive” looks like.

WTI plunged 7% intraday, Brent fell below $80.

Three-month low.

The market is cheering: inflation is cooling down! The Fed has reason to turn dovish! Bitcoin is about to take off!

I just want to say one thing: you’ve been fooled again.

Early this morning Beijing time, Bloomberg and Al Arabiya TV simultaneously disclosed the 14 points of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding.

The core points are two:

First, the U.S. Treasury immediately issues exemption licenses, allowing Iran to export crude oil and petrochemical products, with full banking, insurance, and transportation services.

Second, Iran promises to ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

A few months ago, the market was worried about “the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, 20% of global supply cut,” now it’s directly turned into “Iran’s oil is coming, how long until it arrives?”

Market narrative has instantly shifted from “not enough oil” to “too much oil.”

So oil prices crashed. WTI fell to $75.78, Brent to $78.77. The decline is the biggest since May 20.

Oil prices fell, inflation expectations cooled, and Wosh has reason to turn dovish, right?

Wrong. Dead wrong.

Tonight, at 2 a.m. Beijing time, Wosh will step onto the FOMC podium for the first time as Federal Reserve Chair.

Interest rates are not a suspense — 99% chance they will stay put, maintaining 3.5%-3.75%.

The real bombshell is here: the “rate cuts” words in the 2026 dot plot will most likely be completely removed.

88% of surveyed economists expect the Fed to directly delete the “dovish tilt” wording from the statement.

Federal funds futures show that the probability of rate hikes before December 2026 has already exceeded 80%.

You read that right — 80% chance of hikes, 0% chance of cuts.

So what about the plunge in oil prices? Is it a “shield” in Wosh’s hands?

Yes. But he’s very unlikely to use it.

Why? Because Wosh isn’t really looking at energy prices.

U.S. CPI for May already soared to 4.2% year-over-year. And core inflation? Rents are rising, wages are rising, service prices are rising. The inflation component excluding energy and food remains unchanged.

Oil price drops are an accidental geopolitical event. Core inflation is the real stubborn structural problem.

Who is Wosh? Former Morgan Stanley executive, experienced in the 2008 financial crisis. His logic is completely opposite to that of retail investors—

You see oil prices fall and cheer that inflation is coming down.

What he sees is: oil prices fell, but other prices are still rising. The Fed can’t rely on luck to control inflation.

So what’s the most likely scenario tonight?

Wosh will thank the oil price drop for “relieving short-term inflation pressure”—then immediately add: “But core inflation remains stubborn, and the committee remains vigilant on the data.”

The dot plot will remove the 2026 rate cut guidance. The rate cut expectations will be pushed to June and December 2027.

He’ll save face for the White House, but lock in the easing measures.

What does this mean for BTC?

BTC is now fluctuating around $65,700. It has fallen 20% from the May high of $82k.

The Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with $3.4 billion outflow in the first week of June, a record.

The fear and greed index today is 22, “Extreme Fear.”

Do you think the oil price crash is a lifeline for BTC?

Wake up. The oil price drop is just temporary noise; Wosh’s hawkish stance is the real trend.

Prolonged high interest rates mean the valuation logic of risk assets must be rewritten. BTC is not gold; don’t expect it to be immune in a tightening cycle.

“The oil price drop is just a script for you, but core inflation is Wosh’s trump card. Don’t mistake the shield for a lifeline — #我的Gate交易时刻 it can’t stop bullets.”
BTC-0.67%
BZ-1.18%
CL-1.83%
1
Mining_sLittleSheep
In just 4 days, it surged by $1.2 trillion in value. SpaceX’s market cap surpassed Microsoft—but who is swimming naked? You’ll know soon enough.

If you didn’t sleep last night, chances are you’ve been watching SPCX’s candlestick chart.

During the day it rocketed to $229.85, with its market cap briefly topping $3 trillion. It surpassed Amazon, surpassed Microsoft, and became the world’s fourth-largest. Listed only 4 days ago, the stock price has gained more than 70% from the $135 issue price.

In 4 days, it added $1.2 trillion in value.

What does that even mean? One SpaceX is worth 2.6 Teslas. Elon Musk’s personal net worth has skyrocketed to $1.4 trillion—8.8 times Buffett. The wealth added in a single day is more than the total net worth of the world’s 10th-richest person.

But what I want to say is:

“Before the tide goes out, the revelers never believe they’ll be swimming naked.”

And SpaceX’s tide is expected to start receding as early as August at the fastest.

First, figure out the truth behind the surge—don’t let emotions lead you astray.

From $2.1 trillion to $3 trillion in 4 days is not driven by fundamentals. It’s driven by an imbalance in supply and demand.

This time, SpaceX’s IPO only released about 4.25% of its float. Yet subscription demand exceeded $350 billion.

Extremely limited supply meets extremely bloated demand—so the price gets pushed up hard, forcibly.

Retail investors are going wild. Vanda Research data shows that in the first two days before SpaceX listed, the scale of retail buying exceeded the total retail buying of the entire U.S. stock market from last week.

Even the options market blew up. For 210-dollar call options expiring on June 18, daily trading volume hit 45,900 contracts.

Everyone is betting—betting that it will keep rising.

But has anyone looked at the fundamentals?

Full-year revenue for 2025 is $18.67 billion, with a net loss of $4.94 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, it lost another $4.28 billion.

The price-to-sales ratio is over 140x. Nvidia is 30x; Apple is 8x.

Starlink is the only cash cow. The rockets are losing money, and xAI posted an operating loss of $2.469 billion in the first quarter.

A company that loses nearly $5 billion every year, with a market cap of $3 trillion.

Tell me—does that seem reasonable?

But what keeps me up the most isn’t the price right now, but what will happen next.

On June 18, SpaceX was added to the FTSE Russell and CRSP indexes. It’s expected to trigger forced buying of $10 to $16 billion by passive funds.

On June 26, it was added to the MSCI index, expected to trigger another $3 to $5 billion.

On July 6, it was added to the Nasdaq 100 index, expected to trigger $8 to $12 billion.

Will these passive funds be the final bagholders?

Passive funds are a price stabilizer, not a driving force. They’re forced buyers, not buyers that are actively bullish.

The real test is in August.

After SpaceX releases its Q2 earnings report, 30% of insiders’ shares will unlock. That equals 12% of all outstanding shares. After that, every few weeks, another 7% will unlock.

Elon Musk’s shares are locked for 366 days, but as for everyone else—employees, early investors, private equity funds—they don’t have that kind of faith.

When they see their stock up 70%, what do you think they’ll do?

They’ll sell.

And once selling starts, that “extremely limited supply” instantly turns into “massive sell pressure.”

CFRA has already given a “Sell” rating, with a 12-month target price of $115—more than 40% below the current price.

So my conclusion is simple:

Those few weeks when passive capital flows in may be the last round of celebration.

The MSCI inclusion on June 26 and the Nasdaq 100 inclusion on July 6—these two waves of passive buying could push the price up again. But that’s passive buying, not active conviction.

Only after the August earnings report, unlocks, and insiders cashing out all stack up will a true equilibrium price emerge.

Then we’ll know whether SpaceX is worth $2 trillion, $3 trillion, or $1.5 trillion.

And every dollar you chase in right now is placing a bet against the people who will be able to sell when August unlocks.

“The market is pricing Elon Musk’s dreams, but your account can only pay for reality.”

Passive funds are not the Liberation Army. They’re just the last batch of forced buyers. Real pricing power has never been in passive funds—it’s in the hands of those who can sell in August. #我的Gate交易时刻 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #Gate现货交易量逆势增长增幅全球第一 $BTC $ETH $SPCX
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LighthouseSays
Trading chat:
It means others are not allowed
Actually, what he means is that recently gold and crude oil have made a lot of money
Crude oil was openly short at 95 at the beginning of the month
Gold was reminded to go long at 4080 across the network
These two waves are all thanks to Trump’s support
In terms of trading instruments:
Gold and crude oil are more pragmatic in their volatility, whether they go up or down, it’s very straightforward
Unlike Bitcoin, which twists and turns
They belong to very direct macro assets
Relatively speaking, it’s still easier to trade in waves
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MarkEth
Good bye Oil

See you at $52

Economic boom will come now.

People buying power will increase
So I'm seeing rotation in $BTC and my top bags.

Thanks to those help end the US Iran war.
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