Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

## CPI cooling off? Don’t be fooled by the numbers! Waller’s one line makes Bitcoin scare straight past 62,000

Last night, Christopher Waller—right on the eve of the CPI release—spoke out directly:

“If this week’s core inflation data keeps burning hot, the FOMC will have to consider rate hikes in the near term.”

He added one more line—“We can’t repeat the playbook of 2021, when the response to inflation was sluggish.”

The market blew up right after.

Bitcoin fell more than 3%, at one point dropping below $62,000. Spot gold lost the $4,000 level, and slid nearly 3% on the day. Yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries surged to 4.29%, hitting a new high since February 2025.

Overnight, the probability of a July rate hike jumped from 35% to close to 50%.

So the question is: At 8:30 tonight’s CPI—will it actually make the Federal Reserve press the rate-hike button?

### Numbers can lie, but core inflation won’t

First, look at market expectations.

Wall Street expects June’s overall CPI to fall 0.1% month over month—this would be the first monthly negative inflation since the 2020 pandemic. Year over year, it would drop from 4.2% in May to 3.8%.

Oil prices are the only reason. In June, gasoline prices fell 10% month over month, marking the fourth-largest single-month decline in nearly a decade. Just this one item alone pulls overall CPI down by 0.4 percentage points.

What happens after stripping out food and energy?

Core CPI is expected to slip only slightly year over year—from 2.9% to 2.8%. That number is almost exactly the same as a year ago, with no sign of a downtrend whatsoever.

Even more terrifying is services inflation—covering rent, car repairs, travel, and dining out—annualized growth at 3.4%, far above the 2.6% average level between 2010 and 2019.

One-sentence summary: Oil prices fell, and the inflation print looks good. But the money regular people spend every day didn’t get any cheaper.

### What Waller is truly afraid of isn’t oil

In his remarks, Waller revealed a deeper concern.

He said inflation pressure may no longer be just short-term shocks from tariffs or energy—it’s spreading across the entire economy.

Translation: Price increases are no longer caused by just a single factor like “imported goods are more expensive” or “gas prices are higher.” Instead, a vicious cycle has formed between wages, rent, service prices, and companies’ pricing behavior.

He also pointed to one more thing—AI.

He said tech companies are building data centers like crazy, buying compute power, and rolling out infrastructure. These demands are transmitting price pressure into broader areas of the economy—through electricity, equipment, construction, and labor.

In the Fed’s eyes, AI could be the fuel for the next round of inflation.

### How likely is a July rate hike, really?

My take: More than 40%, and still rising.

CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 bps July hike is already 41.7%—up from 25% a week ago. The probability of a September hike has surged to more than 75%.

Why?

Because Waller has already put it this plainly: “If the data shows inflation is still clearly above 2%, and even continues to rise, the Fed may need to raise rates again in the near term.”

Don’t forget: At the June FOMC meeting, among 18 decision-makers, 9 already expected at least one rate hike before the end of the year. Fed Chair Waller’s debut pushed the dot-plot rate expectations from 3.4% to 3.8%.

These people aren’t just talking.

### What does this mean for crypto markets?

If tonight’s CPI comes in hotter than expected, Bitcoin may get hit again.

Rate hikes → a stronger dollar → pressure on risk assets. The logic chain is crystal clear.

But there’s a detail worth noting: Bitcoin ETF flows are quietly reversing.

Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $197 million, ending eight straight weeks of outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT also logged its largest single-day net inflow in nearly two months—$221.7 million.

Institutions are accumulating against the market while prices pull back.

What does this mean? It means smart money believes that, no matter whether rates are raised or not, someone is already picking up bargains at this level.

“CPI cooling off is for retail. Core inflation is the Fed’s ace in the hole.”

At 8:30 tonight, the numbers will speak.

But I’d advise you not to look only at the headline—look at core, look at services, and look at the things Waller is truly worried about.

Do you think tonight’s CPI will beat expectations? For the July rate hike, are you betting or waiting?#PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #百万充值补贴 #沃什听证会撞上CPI ￥$BTC $ETH $SOL

At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. June CPI will be released. The market’s median expectation for core CPI is 0.2% month-over-month. If core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of additional Fed rate hikes.

Then at 22:00, Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress. Early the next day at 00:30, Waller will also deliver an economic outlook speech.

The current macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets:
- The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again;
- Brent crude rose to above $85 at one point;
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to about 4.63%;
- The U.S. dollar index is near its intramonth highs;
- The market’s pricing probability for a 25 BP rate hike by late July has risen to about 43%.

This means that today’s CPI is not ordinary data—it will be released amid an oil-price shock and a warming of rate-hike expectations.

In addition, on July 13, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $239.2 million, and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $15.4 million. Institutional capital has not yet formed strong downside support. $CL $XAU

Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will release June CPI, and the median market expectation for core CPI is 0.2% month-over-month. If core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Then at 22:00, Fed Chair Warsh will testify before Congress, and early the next day at 00:30, Waller will also deliver an economic outlook speech.

The macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets right now:
The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again;
Brent crude oil once rose above $85;
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to about 4.63%;
The U.S. Dollar Index is near its intramonth high;
The probability priced by the market for a 25 BP rate hike by late July has risen to about 43%.

That means today’s CPI is not ordinary data, but is being released amid an oil-price shock plus expectations of rate hikes heating up.

In addition, on July 13, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $239.2 million, while ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $15.4 million; institutional funds have not yet formed strong support.

$BTC $CL $XAU

The four-year World Cup is about to reach its final chapter! This edition saw the teams battling all the way to the semifinals, with almost no true super-upsets along the way. France, Spain, England, and Argentina are also the four most top-tier teams in today’s world football. Below, I’ll talk about my predictions for the semifinals and the final.

First up: France vs Spain.
Many people still feel Spain’s possession-based system is unbeatable, but today’s possession play no longer has the absolute dominance it had in its peak period. Against a team like France—one that has everything dialed in in terms of pace, physique, and counterattacking ability—Spain is likely to end up with a higher share of possession but struggle to find a breakthrough for a long time. Once the middle and back line is dispossessed, the threat up front from France is enough to be fatal in one strike.
So I’m more inclined to back France to advance, with the scoreline leaning toward 2:1 or 1:0.

In the other semifinal, Argentina vs England—I favor England more.
This World Cup, England’s Three Lions have been more stable than Argentina, both in form and in overall cohesion. The team is balanced in both attack and defense, the squad depth is strong, and the impact from younger players is also very significant. By contrast, Argentina—despite having a superstar like Messi—has seen its midfield control drop compared with its peak era. Facing high-pressing traps, they can easily fall into a passive state. And once Messi is heavily marked, the team’s ability to create chances will decline as well.

Overall, I think England has a higher probability of advancing, and I’d bet on a 2:1 or 1:0 score.

As for the final, my prediction is that it will be a France vs England showdown.
On paper, I still slightly lean toward France: their lineup is more mature, and they also have more experience in major tournaments. But the biggest charm of football is that it’s unpredictable. If I have to believe in a possible upset script, I’m willing to trust that England can break a wait of over 60 years for a championship and lift the trophy again.

If it really happens, I’d back England to beat France 2:1 or 3:2—returning to the top of the world after a century.

Bank of America says DRAM needs to go as high as $568.8B, yet the market smashed SK hynix into a circuit breaker—so who’s gone crazy?

A 325% growth expectation. Circuit breaker. When these two words show up together, one of them is definitely lying.

On July 11, Bank of America dropped a research report: in 2026, global DRAM revenue is expected to grow year over year by 325%, reaching $568.8B. In the same period, NAND is expected to grow 299% to $323.1 billion. Together they total $891.8 billion, up 315% versus 2025. By 2027, the figure is projected to surge to $1.25 trillion.

What does $12.5k mean? It’s higher than the GDP of many countries. This isn’t a cycle—it’s a tsunami.

So what was the market’s response?

On July 13, SK hynix plunged 15.37% in its home market in South Korea, posting the largest single-day decline in history. Samsung Electronics fell more than 10%. The KOSPI index closed down 8.95%, triggering the circuit breaker for the seventh time this year. SK hynix’s total market cap fell below $568.8B, and its share price has cumulatively retreated nearly 40% from its all-time high.

The U.S. stock market crashed in sync: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.78%, SanDisk dropped more than 12%, and SK hynix’s ADR fell more than 9%. The Nasdaq fell by more than 400 points.

In the same industry, one side has a 325% growth forecast, while the other sees a 15% single-day plunge.

Tell me which one is right.

First, get clear on what happened in South Korea.

The direct spark was a report from South Korean brokerage KIS, predicting that SK hynix’s second-quarter operating profit could be about 8% lower than market consensus. The reason: the HBM revenue mix is too high, and HBM is usually locked in with long-term supply agreements that fix prices, so its pace of price growth can’t keep up with the spot market.

Note: KIS’s exact wording was: “This is not deterioration in fundamentals, but a normalization adjustment after incorporating consideration of long-term supply agreements.” The report also maintained a target price of 3.8 million won and a “buy/accumulate” rating.

It was still a bullish report. But because of the phrasing “not meeting expectations,” it ignited one of the largest stampedes in South Korea’s stock market history.

Why? Because Korean retail investors took leverage to the max.

Data from South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service: the total value of forced liquidations across the whole market on a single day was 344.2 billion won, the largest credit-position stampede this year. Retail investor positions made up 92% of the leveraged book. Across the market, more than 1.2 million leveraged retail trading accounts hit the margin call line; among them, around 320k to 360k accounts were fully forced to close, with principal wiped out to zero—some accounts even ended up owing the brokerage in the negative.

1.2 million people got liquidated. This isn’t a stock-market adjustment—it’s a social event.

A Goldman Sachs trader admitted: “So far, we haven’t heard any truly fundamental catalyst that would be convincing enough to explain the sell-off this time.”

Translation: no fundamental negative news—just leveraged liquidation.

But the other side of the story is what you really should pay attention to.

What are hedge funds doing at the same time?

Goldman Sachs data shows that last week, hedge funds bought the most U.S. semiconductor stocks in nearly three and a half years. Semiconductor stocks now account for 10% of total hedge fund exposure—double the same period last year.

They’re疯狂疯狂ly buying.

SK hynix’s ADR listed on Nasdaq last Friday with an issue price of $149, surging 12.8% on its first day. On Monday, even though it fell 9% due to the Korea drag, it traded in a market with better liquidity, fewer leveraged positions, and institutional pricing.

Two markets, two pools of capital, two different pricing logics:

Korea market: retail investors add leverage to bet on storage, 1.2 million get liquidated, and they’re forced to cut losses.
U.S. market: hedge funds add aggressively against the tide, betting that the selling is over.

Do you believe retail panic—or do you believe institutional ammunition?

A 325% growth expectation—does it really only deserve a circuit breaker?

Bank of America’s logic: this round of growth is driven by price rebounds, not just by shipment growth. It expects the average DRAM price in 2026 to rise 249% year over year, and NAND to rise 238%. A triple force: a surge in demand for AI servers, HBM continuing to ramp up, and supply constraints.

Last Friday, SK hynix’s CEO said: “The shortage situation for memory chips may continue beyond 2030.”

In a seller’s market, supply-demand gaps that can’t be filled on a year-by-year basis, and a doubling-style rise in ASP—tell me, is this what people call “cycle topping”?

MRM Research analyst was even more direct: SK hynix’s stock currently shows “deep oversold” characteristics—“it’s not impossible for it to drop another week, but we believe this is a good opportunity to add.”

Finally, let’s talk about what’s truly important for the crypto space.

DRAM and NAND entering a super cycle means compute costs will stay high.

HBM prices are constrained by long-term agreements—so they’re rising too. And the spot market is even more so. Inflation in AI hardware has already been built into all assumptions behind discounted cash flow: compute costs rise, and capital expenditure intensity increases. The valuation of the tech sector is no longer just a “growth story,” but includes a scarcity premium on resources.

What does this mean for crypto infrastructure?

ZK proofs, AI agents, Layer2 sequencers—every track that depends on compute has its cost structure being rewritten. For projects in the storage track, if they’re still using a “Moore’s Law price declines” logic to build financial models, it’s time to recalculate.

The DRAM super cycle isn’t just something the semiconductor industry deals with. It’s the underlying inflation across the entire digital world.

“Panic is temporary; cycles are eternal. Don’t let a circuit breaker scare you to death—look behind the circuit breaker. The industry is going through a major boom.”

Early on July 14, South Korea’s KOSPI already rebounded and turned positive. Samsung Electronics rose more than 5%, and SK hynix rose more than 3%. Panic lasted only one night.

A 325% growth forecast, a 15% plunge—what do you believe? In your crypto holdings, is there a token that’s benefiting from “compute inflation”? #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #百万充值补贴 #沃什听证会撞上CPI $BTC $SKHY $SAMSUNG

US stocks just sparked an all-new super “mega concept”!
A new stock-market “wealth-making” windfall in the US: the first nuclear fusion company—will it be the next AI, or just another capital scam?
The world’s first pure nuclear fusion publicly listed stock, GFUZ, officially began trading on Nasdaq
On its first day of listing, it surged directly by 40%. The “artificial sun” that Bezos has heavily backed for 15 years finally made its debut on the secondary market.
Many people are excited: will nuclear fusion be the next AI?
Straight, plain conclusion: it won’t replicate AI’s explosion speed, but it’s also definitely not a pure scam.
Why not a scam?
AI is insanely power-hungry, and the global compute-power gap is exploding. In the future, the most urgent “must-have” will be zero-carbon, unlimited, ultra-low-cost electricity
Nuclear fusion is the ultimate energy source—the industrial logic is solid, and the ceiling is extremely high.
GFUZ uses a niche mechanical piston compression technology; its costs are far lower than traditional superconducting solutions, so there is definitely enough room for imagination.
But why it absolutely can’t be traded like AI?
AI: has products, revenue, implementation, and immediate performance
Nuclear fusion: an old company from 2024, 0 revenue, and no achieved energy break-even
The real situation is very brutal:
1. The originally planned technical validation this year was pushed back directly to 2028
2. Commercial power generation was pushed directly to 2035
3. Early-year capital-chain tightness, layoffs of 25%, and survival by shareholder “cash infusion”
4. SPAC listing = private financing is no longer moving; it’s time to come to the secondary market to raise funds and keep going
The most accurate positioning:
AI is the industrial revolution happening now; nuclear fusion is a long-dated option worth 10+ years.
What’s being traded right now is all “future expectations,” with zero real performance backing it.
Very low probability of winning, but very high odds—classic “tech lottery” style of asset.
Summary:
It has the potential to upend the world, but it has no near-term go-live capability.
You can trade the concept, but you can’t trade the earnings; good for betting on the momentum, not for holding long-term and “dying with the position.”

Comrades who hold positions and follow storage-related developments can take a look.
Posted during trading｜Last Friday, SK Hynix only just rose 12.76%, and today it opened down directly 9%.
At 12:00 a.m. local time in Da Nang, the U.S. stock market had just opened for Monday. Watching the screen as this unfolded, I felt it was necessary to talk to everyone about it.
Last Friday, SK Hynix ADR rose more than 12%+ on its first day of listing, and the whole internet was celebrating the storage valuation re-rating moment.
Today, as soon as the U.S. stock market opened, Hynix ADR immediately fell

Most people are still looking at the old bottom.

$ALLO ‌ has bounced hard from $0.045 and is now trading around $0.47.

If buyers reclaim the $0.50 to $0.55 resistance area with strong volume, the next big level to watch is the previous ATH near $0.81.

A new ATH is possible only after that level is broken, so it's still too early to confirm.
#PreIPOsSeason2OpenAISubscription #MillionDepositCashback

$ALLO is on an absolute tear!
The $ALLO spot chart is showing massive bullish momentum, skyrocketing +18.15% to sit firmly at 0.44125.

24h High: 0.44760
24h Volume: 7.92M ALLO ($3.16M USDT turnover)
Looking at the 15m chart, it’s a beautiful ladder of green candles breaking past previous resistance levels.

It’s currently ranked No. 13 in the "New" category and catching a ton of heat.

Is this the start of a massive macro rally, or are we looking at a brief consolidation before the next leg up?

What’s your move? Holding or taking profits?#PreIPOsSeason2OpenAISubscription

Elon Musk's @SpaceX $SPCX hits post-IPO low, falling under $140
$1.15 Trillion erased in the last 27 days.
Damn…

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NZ｜ Launchpad launchpad first-generation ecosystem token ✅ with a bidirectional 3% trading tax: 2% for buyback and permanent burn, 1% USDT for dividend distribution to token holders Smart Vault: rising to build up energy, falling to automatically buy back and stabilize the floor price, permanently send to a “black hole” ✅ Alchemy ecosystem: 1.8x returns, multiple repeat dividends ✅ Launchpad cash flow generation: the platform’s revenue continues to buy back and burn, achieving extreme deflation Community co-building, ecosystem self-driven, circular value appreciation— a long-term value track! CA:

The $1 narrative is very pure—its core is that the Robin chain welcomes anyone to come in and play, and whatever amount of money you bring will be met with great goodwill toward you. Yesterday’s founder-wallet farce caused many whales 🐳 to get trapped at high levels, but it’s also the best washout. The $1 narrative essentially summarizes the chain’s most core value. Believe that after the washout, it will gradually climb to 10m to help the whales get out of their positions.

Oil prices about to take off?
Trump officially issued new rules: only Iranian ships are restricted from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. takes over escort and security authority for the strait, and all transiting freight is charged a 20% transit protection fee.
In the short term, it directly lifts crude oil sea freight costs, which is bullish for oil prices.
But higher energy prices will continue to push up inflation across the U.S., making it even harder for the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance to loosen.
A sustained high-interest-rate environment continues to weigh on high-valuation growth sectors; the chip and storage segments are unlikely to bounce back in the short term.
Tonight, market funds are severely divided, with energy and technology stocks tugging in opposite directions.

A Taoist friend I knew a long time ago started a self-media channel and already has tens of thousands, perhaps even more, followers. What I’ve been thinking about is: what is the real value of these metaphysical theories? Nihilism has spread throughout this era, and traditional universal value systems are gradually collapsing, so humanity increasingly needs metaphysical transcendental frameworks to anchor the spirit.

Things of the idealist realm—belief, meaning, hope, or even metaphysics—seem to be far removed from material reality, but in the end they still act on the material world through material mechanisms. For example, the placebo effect: the placebo itself is useless, but people who take it with strong belief will have their brains release substances like endorphins, leading to real physiological improvements.

Subjective belief is a neural process that can be influenced. These metaphysical attachments are transformed into real healing and meaning-oriented therapy through material mechanisms. No wonder metaphysical fortune-telling and the manifestation track have become increasingly popular on major social media platforms.

$76 worth of SOL—are you buying?

First look at the surface: the monthly line bounced up 14%, but in the short term it’s pulling back.

SOL surged off the June low of $60, hitting as high as 80+. It’s now ranging in the 75–80 zone, with the price around $76. Market cap is about $40 billion+. 24-hour trading volume is $1.5–1.7 billion. The candlesticks tell you: price is hovering near the Bollinger middle band, RSI is around 50 and neutral, the 9-day moving average at 78.7 is capping it, and short-term momentum is weak—direction is unclear. Wait for a signal before you move.

First thing: in the June move from $60—did you bottom-fish?

In June, when SOL dipped to around $60, panic spread everywhere online. Analysts said, “It will fall to 40,” and retail traders cursed, “Solana is going to zero.”

So what happened?

It rebounded 26% in one month, straight back to $80.

Now at $76, it’s 26% higher than $60. The people who missed the bottom are stomping their feet: “Should I chase?” Those already holding are torn: “Should I sell?”

The bottom is never called—it’s built.

Second thing: the fundamentals haven’t broken down; they’re actually stronger.

Solana has crossed the 1,000th Epoch—this isn’t just hype. Backpack rolled out 24/7 US stock brokerage services, Ondo Finance introduced tokenized stock trading, and Alvarez & Marsal accepts USDC payments—RWA deployment is moving far faster than you think.

The Firedancer upgrade is still progressing, with the ultimate goal of sub-second finality. The shift from a pure Memecoin chain to “high-performance + real adoption” is already well underway.

Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that you must pay attention to.

At $74, the price has been repeatedly tested in the recent period, and each time it holds. The pattern may be forming an inverted head-and-shoulders reversal—left shoulder at 60, the head? the right shoulder is being built now.

But on the short-term 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the volatility lower band, showing the bulls don’t have enough energy to push yet. 78–80 is the first wall. You need to break through to see 85–90; if you can’t, it will grind back to 73–74.

Key levels

Support below: 73–74 (key line of defense) → 67–68 (Bollinger lower band, the “iron bottom”)

Resistance above: 78–80 (breakout confirmation for strength) → 85–90 → 110–130

One side is:

A deep V rebound of 26% in June, with a bottoming structure taking shape

TVL returning to the highest level since June, with strong on-chain data

RWA adoption accelerating, with real growth from institutions

The 1,000th Epoch milestone, with 1 billion+ transactions in a single week

The other side is:

The Fed’s high interest rate at 3.5–3.75%, with rate cuts nowhere in sight

The 9-day moving average capping it, short-term momentum weak

78–80 hasn’t been crossed three times—huge psychological pressure

Seasonality in August–September has historically been weak

Aggressive short-term:

Buy in batches at 74–75.5, stop loss below 72. First target 78–80; after a breakout, look at 85–90. The risk-reward is good, but don’t go all-in.

Conservative swing trade:

Wait for the daily chart to move above 80 with volume before entering, confirm the trend reversal, target 100+. Right-side trading never gets the exact lowest point—but it also never gets stuck deep.

Long-term DCA:

If you truly believe in Solana, start monthly DCA in the 70–75 range, targeting the 2027 cycle return. But the prerequisite is: you can accept it dropping back to 60 again and not panic.

SOL right now is like ETH in September 2024—

Everyone said “L1 is dead,” and then two months later it doubled.

But the difference is: SOL’s volatility is much bigger than ETH’s—when it rallies it’s ferocious, and when it falls it’s vicious. If you enjoy its upside explosiveness, you’ve got to endure the rollercoaster.

It’s not that Solana has no value; it’s that you always want to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point—then you’ll always miss the move. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #百万充值补贴 #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡 $BTC $ETH $SOL

🐸 $RIBBIT is starting to make some noise.
📈 Currently trending on Dexscreener
🦎 Already listed on CoinGecko
☀️ Built on Solana
What makes it interesting ?
$RIBBIT is set to be integrated into a Polymarket-style prediction market platform being developed by @HelloMoon_io, where the token will be used for placing predictions and participating in markets.
It’s also the official meme token of the $ZSWAP ecosystem.
Ticker: $RIBBIT
CA: FrtbBAaSZksfh4oV46E7Pvb43QiiUmYLD3dcGS6gpump
Ribbit. 🐸
NFA / DYOR
#Solana #Crypto #DeFi