Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

$PUMP is showing solid short term momentum.

Price has climbed above 0.00214 USDT, gaining over 6% on the day, while buyers continue defending higher levels after a strong breakout.

The recent surge in volume suggests fresh interest, but price is now approaching a zone where profit taking could slow the move.

If bulls maintain support around 0.00212–0.00214, another attempt toward the recent high near 0.00217 is possible.

A rejection, however, could lead to a healthy pullback before the next leg higher.

Momentum is improving, but chasing green candles without a plan is always risky.

Watch volume and key support levels closely.#SummerCreationCamp #GateSquare

$0.072 DOGE，你要赌一把吗？

美伊冲突暂停，风险偏好回归，DOGE成Top20唯一成交量跳涨90%的标的，鲸鱼在0.07悄悄吞下200M枚——但价格还在0.072趴着，距离ATH跌了90%。这波到底是狗庄借消息出货，还是Meme之王要重出江湖？

先看表面：没人关心狗币了，但它好像也没死。

过去24小时微涨1%，成交量从底部回升到4.8-600M，一度跳涨到1.5B量级。价格在0.07-0.074窄幅盘整，日线RSI 45，MACD弱金叉——所有指标都在说一句话：这位置，跌不动了，但也还没人敢拉。

第一件事：成交量的秘密，你可能没看懂。

整个Top20里，只有DOGE的24小时交易量显著上升，一度跳涨90%+到1.5B美金。衍生品市场多头占比已经推到70%附近，上方0.075-0.081是空头清算密集区。

听不懂没关系，我翻译成人话：

空头在0.075-0.081附近扎堆，一旦价格冲到那里，空单被迫平仓会形成“连锁买盘”

多头已经在蓄力，只差一根导火索

成交量异动，往往是大行情的前兆，不是散户能拉出来的量。

第二件事：鲸鱼在买，你却在怕。

链上数据显示，大户在0.07附近通过Robinhood买了约200M枚DOGE，价值14M美金。现货ETF也出现了6月中旬以来的首次净流入——虽然只有345k，但这是方向性的转变。

同样的剧本，2021年1月、2024年2月，每次鲸鱼在底部悄悄吸筹，后面都跟着一轮FOMO。

散户在问“DOGE还能不能回1美元”，机构在0.07默默数筹码。

第三件事：Elon没发推，反而是好事。

你觉得DOGE涨要靠马斯克喊单？

那你就永远是个接盘侠。

美伊冲突暂停带来风险偏好回升，这是宏观层面的喘息。只要BTC稳在6.4-66k，DOGE这种高贝塔Meme币的弹性一定是Top级。

Elon现在不说话，说明庄家还没准备好拉盘。哪天他突然发一条“Doge to the moon”——你猜他是喊你上车，还是喊你接盘？

多空对决，你自己看

一边是：

成交量跳涨90%，多头占比推至70%

鲸鱼在0.07吸筹200M枚

现货ETF首次净流入，方向性转变

0.07支撑多次守住，底部结构初步形成

上方0.075-0.081空头清算密集区，短挤燃料充足

一边是：

距ATH跌了90%，上方套牢盘如山

均线空头排列，50日均线0.077-0.078压制

通胀年增3.3%，无限供应，缺乏稀缺性

没有重磅催化，Elon无喊单

宏观中性偏谨慎，流动性不宽松

关键位置0.072，多空分水岭就在这。

上方阻力：0.073-0.074 → 0.075-0.076 → 0.08 → 0.085-0.09

下方支撑：0.07 → 0.068-0.069 → 0.065

操作策略（不讲废话）

短线选手：

站稳0.0725-0.073并放量，轻仓多，目标0.075-0.076（短挤区），再看0.078-0.08。止损0.0695。或等回踩0.0705-0.071企稳低吸。跌破0.07无条件止损，别扛。

波段玩家：

等方向。向上有效突破0.076（日线收盘+放量），追多看0.08-0.085。向下破0.069，减仓观望，等0.065-0.06再考虑接。

长线赌徒：

0.07以下闭眼定投，但要分散、要小仓、要用闲钱。拿1-2年赌的是Meme叙事回归+宏观流动性爆发。不破0.065就拿着，破了先出来等。

DOGE现在就像2024年8月的自己——

从0.22跌到0.08，没人要了，然后两个月后干到0.48。

0.072这个位置，你可以看不起它，但别跟鲸鱼对着干。

狗币这玩意儿，从来不看基本面，看的是谁敢在没人要的时候伸手接。#直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $DOGE

$ETH is holding strong despite Fed uncertainty.
If rate expectations ease, a break above $1,980 could open the door to $2,000+. Bulls are still in the game.

ChangXin Storage listed today and soared 465.82%. Some are happy while others are sad. In December 2024, Country Garden Venture Capital cashed out the stake it held in ChangXin Technology for 2 billion yuan, with the transfer price set at 2.22 yuan per share. When President Yang at Country Garden saw today’s stock price, he probably had his thigh swollen from slapping it—having missed out on a full 22 times.

ETH worth $1,964—can you bet on it the night before the FOMC?

With the ETF seeing net inflows for three straight weeks exceeding $300 million, staking queues need to wait 40 days, and institutions are rushing to lock ETH into their vaults—yet just now, the price touched the $2,000 level and was smashed back to $1,964. Is this move just building up before a breakout, or is this a market-manipulator luring buyers and dumping using FOMC news?

First, look at the surface: a 20% rebound, and market confidence is back.

From the June low of 1,500 all the way to 1,964, up 25%. The weekly candle closes green, the monthly turns positive. After breaking through the 1,880-1,910 resistance zone, it’s aiming at 2,000. The candlesticks tell you: moving averages are fanning bullish, MACD has a golden cross, RSI is 56 neutral-to-strong, and every technical indicator is shouting one message: 2,000 isn’t the end—but the FOMC is the gate to the underworld.

First thing: the ETF is buying, staking is locking—but you might be waiting for an even lower price.

Last week, the ETH ETF had net inflows of $104 million, with positive inflows for three straight weeks, and over $300 million in July so far. BlackRock alone handled $10.1 billion worth of ETH, accounting for 4.5% of total market value.

Staking is even crazier—40.20 million ETH have been locked, about 33-34% of the circulating supply. The staking queue is waiting 40 days or more to get in.

Put it into plain words:

There’s getting to be less and less ETH available to sell in the market

Institutions aren’t selling; they’re locking and earning interest

Exchange reserves keep falling

Retail is waiting to get out at 2,500, while institutions are hoarding like crazy at 1,900. Any pullback you’re waiting for might never come.

Second thing: staking yields have fallen to 2.8%, but institutions are still queuing.

Annualized yield has dropped from 4% to 2.8%. Retail thinks it’s too low and runs, but institutions are still lining up 40 days to get in.

Why?

Because for institutions, the “risk-free yield” of 2.8% plus call option upside from ETH price appreciation is far more attractive than Treasuries. Grayscale and BlackRock’s Staking ETF have already paved the road for traditional capital—money is moving from the bond market into the ETH staking pool.

ETH is shifting from a “speculative asset” to “digital Treasuries.” Once this narrative is accepted by Wall Street, $1,964 becomes an eternal floor.

Third thing: FOMC is here—that’s the biggest variable.

Next week, the Federal Reserve meets. The market expects the interest rate to be kept unchanged (3.50%-3.75%), but hawkish wording could smash the market at any time.

Watch two things:

Whether the statement hints that “action may be taken in September”

How hard Chairman Kevin Warsh pushes back at the press conference

If it turns out hawkish (dovish) → ETH directly breaks 2,000 and surges to 2,160+

If it turns out hawkish (hawkish) → it pulls back to 1,900, even 1,850

But I’m going to tell you a counterintuitive rule: over the past 5 FOMCs, ETH has set a new stage high within a week after the meeting in 4 out of 5 times. Every “bad news” is an opportunity to get in, and every “good news” is a chase trap.

Bull vs bear—you decide

On one side:

ETF net inflows for three straight weeks, and institutional buy pressure keeps coming

Staking ratio at 33% hits a historical high, and circulating supply keeps shrinking

Double-bottom breakout confirmed, measured target 2,160-2,200

Cooling CPI, improving macro environment

On the other side:

FOMC could turn hawkish, and short-term uncertainty is huge

The $2,000 psychological level has failed to break through three times

MA200 is at 2,130-2,200; the long-term trend still suppresses bears

Up from 1,500 to 1,964—profit-taking needs to digest

Key level: 1,964, only 36 dollars away from 2,000.

Resistance overhead: 1,980-2,000 → 2,100-2,160 → 2,200 (MA200)

Support below: 1,900-1,910 → 1,850-1,880 → 1,800-1,750

Trading plan (no fluff)

For short-term traders:

At the current price of 1,964, enter a small long position. If it pulls back to 1,910-1,930, add. Stop loss at 1,900 (breakdown means exit). First target 2,000-2,020—sell 1/3 first. Second target 2,160. Ahead of the FOMC, cut exposure to within 20%. Don’t gamble on the news.

For swing traders:

Wait until the FOMC outcome is out before acting. If dovish → chase the breakout above 2,000, aiming 2,160-2,200; if hawkish → wait to buy at 1,850-1,880, stop loss at 1,800.

For long-term believers:

Dollar-cost average with your eyes closed below 1,900, stake for the coins, and hold for 1-2 years. Even though staking yields are low, combined with the upside expectation from price appreciation, annualized returns are far beyond any traditional asset. But remember—don’t go all-in before the FOMC. Keep “ammo” for black swan surprises.

ETH right now is like itself before the July 12 CPI release—

Everyone was scared of “good news being sold,” but once the data came out, it directly blew up the shorts.

On the day $2,000 breaks through, you’ll find that:

Locked staking + ETF buying + improving macro all converge—there’s simply no way you can stop it. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $SOL

BTC worth $65,300—are you still waiting for a “lower” price?

Iran has called a ceasefire, ETFs have seen net inflows for 6 straight days totaling nearly $1 billion, and BTC has violently rebounded 13% from 57,800—but just now, the price is stuck around 65k, unable to break through. Both longs and shorts are waiting for the July 28 FOMC. Is this rebound the end point, or the final shakeout before the violent surge?

Look at the surface: the rebound is fierce, and the market is building up power in a sideways range.

In early July, it surged from 57,800 to 67k—up nearly $10k. Over the past 24 hours, it has been stuck around $65,300, stuck between ups and downs. The weekly chart has four consecutive bullish candles, but the increase is shrinking—typical “digesting phase after a big rally.” The candlesticks tell you: the 50-day EMA at 65k is holding. The rising channel remains intact, and all technical indicators are sending one message: don’t get shaken out of the car—the direction will come out soon.

First thing: Iran has paused hostilities, but you may still be living in fear.

The U.S.-Iran conflict has temporarily halted, oil prices have fallen, and risk appetite has broadly rebounded. BTC directly pumped from 58k to 67k—this is the “emotional repair” bonus granted by geopolitics.

But look at your own hands—are you still waiting for a pullback to 60k? Do you still feel like “it will drop again”?

Same script: after the 2024 Iranian missile incident, BTC rose from 56k to 72k, and retail traders sold everything at 61k and missed. This time, too? Geopolitical easing is the strongest emotion catalyst. By the time you feel “it’s safe,” the price is already no longer at 65k.

Second thing: ETFs keep flowing back, but retail is still cursing “a fake bull.”

Since mid-July, ETFs have seen net inflows for 6 straight days, totaling nearly $1 billion, led by IBIT. Although there were outflows of $460 million again on July 23-24, the overall trend has already reversed.

When there were outflows of $4-5 billion in June, you were cutting losses. When inflows returned to nearly $1 billion in July, you were waiting for a pullback.

ETFs selling is news. ETFs buying is a signal.

Institutions have already laid out their positions on the floor—you’re still staring at the day-to-day fluctuations and shouting “crash.” Who’s making money? You don’t need me to say it, right?

Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.

The rising channel launched from 57,800 is still intact. The price is exactly sitting along the 50-day EMA (65k). The MACD has just turned bullish, and the weekly chart has four consecutive bullish candles—this is a classic “building energy during a rebound” pattern.

But don’t forget: 1B-67k is the short-term lifeline. Only if it’s pierced on volume can it open the path to 70k. If the FOMC turns hawkish, BTC could pull back to 64k or even 63.5k (the 200-week moving average)—that would be another “bulls’ fear test.”

Longs vs shorts—you decide

On one side:

- Geopolitical easing, risk appetite returning
- ETFs switching from large outflows to net inflows (cumulative nearly $1 billion)
- Rising channel + 50-day EMA support holds effectively
- Four consecutive bullish weekly candles; the medium-term trend has flipped bullish

On the other side:

- 460M-67k failed three times, with clear sell pressure
- FOMC meeting is imminent (July 28-29), high uncertainty
- Actual interest rates still at 2.3%-2.35%, suppressing risk assets
- Thin liquidity (summer), fake breakouts for longs
- Key level 65,300, only $1,300 away from the life-or-death line at 64k

- Overhead resistance: 66,500-67k → 70k → 75k
- Downside support: 64k-64,500 → 63.5k (200-week moving average) → 60k

Trading strategy (no fluff)

For short-term traders:

Near the current price of 65,300, open a small long position. Add on a pullback to 64,500-64,800. Set a stop-loss at 63.5k (if the close breaks, exit). First target: 66,500-67k—sell half first. If it breaks above 67k, chase to 70k. Don’t short here; shorting at this level after a geopolitical positive catalyst could blow you up.

For swing traders:

Wait for the FOMC to land. If dovish + a breakout above 67k on rising volume → chase longs and look for 75k. If hawkish + a breakdown below 64k on rising volume → wait to pick up at 63k-63.5k. Don’t bet on direction—let the market tell you the answer.

For long-term believers:

Buy with fixed entries below 63k, eyes closed. The 200-week moving average is the “iron bottom.” The target for end-2026 is 90k-100k, betting on the rate-cut cycle + continued ETF inflows. But remember—if BTC breaks below 60k, exit and observe first. Surviving is what gives you the right to bottom-fish.

BTC right now is like itself in January 2024—before the ETF went live.

Everyone thinks: “Good news is already priced in, so it must drop.” The result: it ran from 40k all the way to 70k.

The day 67k breaks through, you’ll realize:

Turns out BTC isn’t the problem—it’s that every time you should be adding, you choose to wait. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Is HYPE worth $600 million set to dump tomorrow?

ATH 76 dropped to 60, ranging for a month, and on July 29, 9.92 million tokens get unlocked (worth $600 million). FOMC hits the same day—both bulls and bears are holding their breath, waiting to see which way it breaks. Is this move the “good bad news already priced in” golden pit, or a “supply bomb” meat grinder?

First, look at the surface: warm-water boiling—death countdown.

Slightly strong over 24 hours +2%, down 7 days -1%, down 30 days -9%. After a pullback from ATH 76.85, it has stayed in the 58-61 range for the past month. Market cap $15.1 billion, OI $2.5 billion, futures volume active. Candlestick-wise, 58-59 support is repeatedly tested, and the 62-63 resistance has failed three times. All technical indicators are basically shouting one sentence: a breakout/change is imminent—either a surge or a dump, no middle option.

First thing: tomorrow $600 million worth unlocks—but you might have the direction backwards.

On July 29, 9.92 million HYPE tokens unlock, worth $600 million, about 4% of circulating supply.

Sounds scary? The market has already dropped 22% in advance to digest this “bad” news. From the mid-June drop from 76.85 to the current 60, the smart money already left. Anyone still on the train is either a dead bull or just a clueless retail sucker who doesn’t know what happens tomorrow.

Same script—historically, before every major unlock, it’s always “sell first as a salute.” The actual unlock day can even be “bad news already out.” In 2024’s ALT and 2025’s WLD, it was the same: big dump before unlock, big pump after unlock. The market always trades expectations; it sells facts.

But pay attention—if after tomorrow’s unlock, whales really start transferring large batches to exchanges, then 58 won’t hold. Next stop is 55 or even 50-52.

Second thing: RWA already takes half the cake—this is the real stuff.

HIP-4 upgrade + prediction market launch: RWA weekly trading volume surged to $25.1 billion, accounting for over 50% of platform trades. Whales are still continuously staking (recently, more than several tens of millions of dollars worth of HYPE was transferred into staking). The protocol’s fee buyback of HYPE has been running.

Put into plain human language:

The platform isn’t air—real people are actually using it.

Fee buybacks = natural buy pressure; historically, they can hedge unlock pressure.

If this unlock gets caught by buybacks, 60 becomes a solid bottom.

But “if”—that’s worth $600 million.

Third thing: FOMC hits the same day—double turning point.

In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the FOMC rate decision came out. The market expects the rate to stay at 3.50%-3.75%. The key is the wording on the statement—if it turns hawkish (implying no rate cuts), BTC gets smashed; high-beta assets like HYPE get dragged down hard. If it turns dovish (implying rate cuts within the year), risk assets take off, and HYPE could ride the momentum to break through.

Unlock + FOMC on the same day isn’t a coincidence—it’s the “bull-bear double explosion” script carefully picked by the big players.

Bulls vs bears, you decide what you see:

On one side:
RWA trading volume is 50%, and platform revenue is strong
Fee buybacks keep going, whale staking keeps coming
HIP-4 upgrade + prediction market, product expansion
The historical pattern of “down before unlock, up after unlock”

On the other side:
$600 million unlocked tomorrow—real supply shock is coming
ETF inflows/outflows: capital likely outflows + big holders queue to unstake
FOMC could lean hawkish; macro headwinds stack up
Once 58-59 support breaks, it heads straight to 55 or even 50

Key level: 60.2—only 2.2 dollars away from the death line at 58.

Resistance above: 62-63 → 65-66 → 70 → 76.85 (ATH)
Supports below: 58-59 → 56-57 → 55 → 50-52

Trading strategy (no fluff)

24 hours before unlock (extremely cautious):
Don’t go heavy betting on direction. With the dual turning points of unlock + FOMC, volatility will explode. High leverage bulls and bears will both get harvested. If you’re already on the train, consider cutting exposure or setting protective stop-losses.

For short-term traders:
Bulls: wait for the 58.5-59.5 support zone and try longs with light size; stop-loss below 57; targets 61.5-63
Bears: if it breaks 58 with volume and confirmation, short toward 56-55 with strict stop-loss

Keep leverage within 3-5x. Don’t get greedy.

For swing traders:
If after unlock the price quickly digests 55-58 and recaptures above 60 with volume, you can enter from the right side; targets 65-70. If it falls below 55 and there’s no rebound, don’t catch a falling knife—wait for consolidation signals.

For long-term believers:
Start doing batch DCA below 55, betting on “the platform’s leading track + buyback mechanism + unlock bad news already priced in.” But remember—only use spare money. Unlock is known pressure, but also known opportunity. Keep position sizing within 10% of total capital.

Special reminder:
Tomorrow early Beijing time there’s FOMC + unlock. It’s recommended to stay up to watch the charts or set stop-losses and then sleep. In this kind of market, in 15 minutes it can drop 20% or pump 20%. Staying alive matters more than making money.

HYPE right now feels like WLD in 2024—

Before the big unlock, everyone shouted “crash,” but after the unlock it rose from 2 dollars to 12 dollars.

Is 60 a golden pit or a pit for thousands?

The answer isn’t on the candlestick chart—it’s in the whales’ wallets tomorrow. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $HYPE

Today a guy messaged me saying this is the best summer since he entered the market.
He put his savings into Changxin Technology, and in just one day the money he earned was almost equal to five years’ worth of salary from working.
The market surged sharply; everyone was full of expectations, imagining what the future might look like.
In that moment, he felt a delusion that he was living in a human golden age.

Bitcoin ETF demand is cooling.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs just recorded second straight day of net outflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.
Open interest is falling. Funding is neutral.
This looks less like panic, like the market taking a breather.
The next ETF flow report will be key.

Today a guy messaged me and said this has been the best summer since he entered the market.
He put his savings into 长鑫科技, and the money he earned in just a single day was about enough to match the salary from five years of working.
His vacation can be arranged however he likes, and he can set off to travel anytime.
A few days ago the market surged hard, and everyone was full of anticipation—each of them fantasizing about the future.
In that moment, he felt a false sense that he was living through a golden age for humanity.

6:00 PM — claim an airdrop of 250 AEON tokens!

245 Alpha points first come, first served.

It’s a long-lost new coin.

Hope everyone can grab some.

TROO has risen quite a bit since it talked its way up from the low point. Today, I’m going to take a serious step back and review it—why it managed to move through this wave, what cards still haven’t been played next, and what mindset we should use to look at it during this stage.

When we initially liked it, it was because of the five cards it had: Hong Kong lending, mortgage lending, real estate leasing, the online financial market, and then another one—AI.

$BTC ETF demand is starting to cool.

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded two consecutive days of net outflows, with most of the selling coming from BlackRock’s IBIT.

At the same time:

• Open interest is declining
• Funding remains neutral
• Spot demand is weakening

But I don't see this as panic.

It looks more like the market taking a breather after a strong move.

The next ETF flow report could be far more important.

If buyers return while leverage remains low, Bitcoin could be in a much healthier position for its next leg higher.

#SummerCreationCamp
#CLARITYActEntersFinalCriticalStage

Sequoia, a16z, and other six major Silicon Valley VC firms have partnered with South Korea’s National Pension Service, increasing support for AI and semiconductors, along with massive domestic capital in South Korea. Global funds are pouring into South Korea’s tech innovation sector.

This wave in South Korea is drawing on the experience and resources of leading overseas top-tier VCs, using long-term capital to lay out investments in hard technology. This can enhance South Korea’s competitiveness in East Asia’s AI and semiconductor fields.

However, when large amounts of “hot money” crowd into popular tracks, it can drive up project valuations and create a bubble. If industry development afterward fails to meet expectations, valuations will likely fall, affecting investment returns.

In the short term, South Korea’s venture capital industry receives a boost, but in the long run it depends on whether the capital can truly land in real-world industries, avoiding a situation where valuations are only being traded.

Haven’t updated the market for three days—did you miss it?
First, here’s the basic fundamentals for this week:
Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region saw a temporary cooling off. Brent crude fell by about 5.2% at one point, while WTI fell by about 5.4%. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both pulled back in tandem, and U.S. stock index futures rebounded. This combination is favorable for crypto in the short term, because it simultaneously eases inflation worries and the expectation of tighter liquidity.
But the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Official sources show that the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29. Around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the statement will be released; at 2:30, the press conference will be held by Powell in Washington. The market currently still prices in roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty of this meeting is clearly higher than that of a typical rate decision meeting.
After that, at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the initial estimate of the U.S. Q2 GDP and June PCE will be released at the same time; at 20:30 on July 31, the Q2 Employment Cost Index will be released. In other words, there is a continuous macro-volatility window in the second half of the week.
As for ETF flows, they show improvement but an unstable state:
On July 24, the spot BTC ETF recorded net outflows of about $240.1 million, ending the prior streak of consecutive inflows;
Spot ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $70.70 million on the day;
However, ETH still had net inflows of about $103.9 million for the week, and from July to date, net inflows are about $337.7 million.
This suggests that institutional demand has improved compared with June, but it is still not enough to confirm sustained one-way inflows.
In the next post, we’ll talk about the price action!
$BTC $XAU

Haven’t updated in three days.
Miss me?

Today, first let’s go over the fundamentals for this week:

Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region showed a temporary cooldown. Brent crude fell by around 5.2% at one point, while WTI dropped by about 5.4%. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both pulled back, and U.S. stock index futures rebounded. This combination is beneficial for crypto in the short term, because it simultaneously eases inflation concerns and expectations of tighter liquidity.

But the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Officially, the FOMC will hold a meeting on July 28–29. The statement will be released around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, followed by a press conference at 2:30 at the same time as the Wall Street session. The market is currently pricing in roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty of this meeting is clearly higher than that of a typical policy meeting.

Then at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the initial estimate of the U.S. Q2 GDP and June PCE will be released at the same time; at 20:30 on July 31, the Q2 employment cost index will be published. In other words, there will be a continuous macro volatility window in the second half of the week.

ETF flows are showing improvement, but an unstable one:

On July 24, BTC spot ETF net outflows were about $240.1 million, ending the prior streak of inflows.
ETH spot ETF that day had net outflows of about $70.7 million.
However, ETH still had net inflows of about $103.9 million for the week, and from July to date, net inflows are about $337.7 million.

This suggests institutional demand has improved compared with June, but not enough to confirm sustained one-way inflows.

In the next post, we’ll talk about price action!

$BTC $XAU

$750 billion in market value walked out the door—these three earnings reports are the “death verdict” for the AI narrative

Google Cloud revenue surged 82%—is that enough?

It is.

But Google fell 7% that day, marking the first time since listing that free cash flow turned negative—minus $5.9 billion.

Tesla revenue at $28.2 billion hit a three-year high— is that enough?

It is.

But Tesla dropped 14% over the week, and free cash flow also turned negative.

The market sent a very clear signal: revenue that beats expectations no longer matters. Now Wall Street only recognizes one ledger—how much you burned, and how much you have left.

But this is just the appetizer.

The real hard fight comes this Wednesday and Thursday.

Microsoft and Meta report after the close on Wednesday, and Amazon follows on Thursday. For these three companies, total planned capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to exceed $700 billion.

You read that right—$700 billion.

At the start of the year, the market expected the five mega-tech firms’ full-year capex to be about $485 billion. By July, that number has already jumped to $730 billion. In half a year, the increase was $245 billion—more than the full-year revenue of most tech companies worldwide.

Even more painful is another set of figures:

Reuters calculated a scenario—by 2027, for the five hyperscale cloud service providers, each additional $1 of operating cash flow will require an extra $1.57 in capital investment.

For every $1 you earn, you first spend $1.57.

What does that mean? The operating cash flow from the five most profitable tech companies on Earth is about to be unable to cover capital expenditures.

So these three earnings reports, in essence, are answering the same question:

Is AI a money-printing machine, or a money-shredding machine?

First, Microsoft.

Microsoft’s stock price is already down nearly 30% from its peak. The market is watching two numbers: whether Azure’s growth can hold at 39%-40%, and whether the capital expenditure guidance for fiscal year 2027 will exceed $22 billion.

Azure is the lifeblood of Microsoft’s entire AI narrative. If growth holds, the story can still be told. If growth slips, $190 billion in capex becomes a big pie it can’t swallow.

Next, Meta.

Meta’s full-year capex guidance has already been raised to $125 billion–$145 billion. But unlike Microsoft, and Amazon, Meta has no cloud business it can sell compute power through.

The returns on AI spending can only be realized by improving ad targeting precision and strengthening user stickiness. That’s a longer payback cycle. If ad revenue growth can’t hold up, Meta will be the most fragile among the four.

Finally, Amazon.

Amazon has already previewed about $200 billion in capex for 2026. Over the past 12 months, free cash flow has shrunk to just $1.2 billion. AWS first-quarter growth rebounded to 28%—the only bright spot.

In this earnings season, the market isn’t waiting for “good news.”

The market is waiting for “good enough news”—so good it can cover the shadow of capital expenditures.

Google’s revenue beat expectations and Cloud revenue surged 82%—not enough. For Microsoft, if Azure growth hits 40%, Meta’s ad revenue beats expectations, and Amazon’s AWS growth is above 30%—is that enough?

Nobody knows the answer.

But one thing is certain: if these three earnings reports can’t satisfy the market, the AI narrative will escalate from “anxiety” to “faith collapse.”

The mega-cap stocks that are paying to fund AI get hammered, while chip makers that receive AI orders keep rallying. This divergence has been going on for months. After these three reports, either the divergence converges and the narrative gets repaired—or the divergence turns into a split.

And finally, a blunt truth:

Stop letting “long-termism” numb you.

What the market is looking at now is this quarter’s cash flow and next quarter’s guidance.

Wednesday and Thursday—after the close, we’ll see who’s right.

Those tokenized US stocks—MSFT, META, AMZN—can be traded 24/7.

The moment the earnings are out, the money will talk.

Are you ready to listen? #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $MSFT $METAG $AMZN

10 stock-trading dead traps every retail investor should know! Understand them to avoid years of detours
1. Thinking you can control the market?
Watching the chart every day and the gains, thinking if you just keep staring it will go up. The market isn’t run by your family—can looking at it a couple more times really make it rise? The real people who make big money read books; only gamblers stare at flickering numbers for self-entertainment.
2. Cut losses decisively, take profits and run instantly?
Make 3% and you run, lose 30% and you hold on. You’re literally uprooting flowers to water weeds! Great companies must be held with courage; leaving a trash company on your portfolio for another second is disrespectful to your wallet.
3. Profits come from “spare money,” losses are “principal”?
You don’t feel bad when profit disappears; it hurts only when the principal is gone. Money is money—what “principal” and “profit” is there? As soon as it hits your account, every dollar is your hard-earned sweat. Don’t give yourself excuses.
4. It’s up for two days, and you think “this time is different”?
After getting brainwashed by those two days of explosive gains, you think a bull market is coming. The most expensive sentence in finance is “this time is different.” Market conditions change every day, but human greed and fear haven’t changed for hundreds of years.
5. When others cut losses, you also rush to get smashed?
When the market panics, even if you know the valuation is cheap, you still smash it down. Others are fearful and I’m greedy; others are greedy and I’m fearful. If you buy stocks still have to look at what old Wang next door thinks, take my advice—close your account and buy an index.
6. The money you made by luck will be lost by “strength”?
You caught a wave and made a quick buck, and you really think you’re a stock god. Only when the tide goes out do you know who was swimming naked! Don’t treat luck as ability. If you can’t understand the business, don’t invest a cent—sticking to your circle of competence is the life raft.
7. Profits are thanks to yourself, losses are blamed on the big environment?
When you win, you’re amazing; when you lose, you blame the broader market, blame the pump-and-dump crew. Admit you’re not good—it’s not embarrassing. The embarrassing part is refusing to acknowledge mistakes and keep dying on the same hill. Write down your buy thesis— the market will slap you in the face at any time.
8. A “discount” price makes you think it’s cheap?
Dropping from 100 to 50 makes you think the bottom-picking opportunity is here. Price is what you pay; value is what you get. Forget the all-time highest price—only focus on whether this company can generate cash flow in the future.
9. Addicted to momentum trades, chasing thrills?
Every day you hunt for limit-up boards, enjoying dopamine stimulation. Nobody wants to get rich slowly. If you’re not planning to hold this company for ten years, then don’t hold it for even ten minutes.
10. Holding as a long-term shareholder?
You make a little by cashing out, but when you get deeply trapped, you comfort yourself that you’re doing value investing. Assumption: if you had cash right now, would you buy it at today’s price? If you wouldn’t dare to buy, then don’t leave it for even one second—close everything immediately!

$BTC is still making traders wait.

A rejection wick on the weekly close shows that resistance remains strong, while the H4 chart continues to move in both directions without confirming a trend.

Range-bound markets often test patience more than anything else.

Chasing every small move can be costly, while waiting for confirmation can make all the difference.

The next decisive break could bring strong momentum. Until then, risk management matters more than predictions.

Every rebound
is for a better short