Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

HYPE worth $55—are you brave enough to catch the flying knives?

Multicoin has just filed to unlock 1.96 million HYPE, worth $120 million. On July 30, there’s also an additional 3.3 million HYPE set to unlock—however, just now, open interest has surged to $11.45 billion, setting a new annual high. In defiance of the trend, a whale has staked 2.93 million HYPE. Is this the last escape before institutions unload, or a “violent washout” golden opportunity?

First, the surface: panic stampede—blood on the floor.

HYPE has been smashed from its ATH at 76.8 down to 55, for a cumulative drawdown of 28%. In the last 24 hours, it’s down another 6%, nearly 10% lower from the high near 62. The weekly chart is even uglier—down more than 8% over the past week, the harshest among the top 10 by market cap. The candles tell you one thing: daily RSI has fallen below 50, and price is trading below the 26-day and 50-day EMAs. Every technical indicator is shouting a single message—either 55 holds for a reversal, or it waterfalls to 50.

First move: a $150 million worth of unlock pressure is capping everything—market gets scared.

On July 30, 3.3 million HYPE will be released, worth about $198 million, and will be one of the largest single-day unlock events in Hyperliquid history. In the next 7 days, a total of 6.93 million HYPE will be unlocked, worth about $415 million.

What’s even more terrifying: Multicoin Capital has filed to withdraw about 1.96 million HYPE (worth $120 million), and Selini Capital has also removed 504k HYPE.

Retail sees this and instantly goes weak in the knees: “Institutions are already leaving, so I should run too?”

But look closer—Multicoin managing partner Tushar Jain has publicly said that the extraction of 1.96 million HYPE is not meant for selling, but rather a normal wallet rotation for institutions.

Same script: the first time it scares you to death, the second time it numbs you, and the third time—maybe it’s the one where you get cut at the absolute low.

Institutions rebalancing; retail panicking. Same familiar recipe.

Second move: the whales are adding positions against the tide—you didn’t see it.

Right as Multicoin filed to unlock—an address, allegedly associated with a16z, staked 3.3M HYPE across 20 wallets, worth about $164 million.

Another whale-related wallet staked 2.93 million HYPE in the past 24 hours, with an average entry price of just $44—an unrealized profit of about $44.5 million.

On one side, institutions are applying to unlock. On the other, whales are疯狂 staking. Tell me— is this unloading, or just turnover?

When everyone is panicking, smart money is quietly getting to work.

Third move: the protocol is still making money—and it’s making a lot.

Although HYPE’s price is down, Hyperliquid’s fundamentals haven’t broken.

Open interest: $11.45 billion, 2026 peak level
24-hour perpetual futures trading volume: over $9.29 billion
About $2.2 million in daily fees and $1.51 million in protocol revenue
RWA open interest hits a record $3.6 billion

A total of 99% of spot and perpetual trading fees are injected into a fund for repurchasing HYPE. Revenue is rising, buybacks are running, while price is falling—what do you call this? Value divergence.

While the HIP-4 prediction market is still early, deployers must stake 500k HYPE for six months—adding a new source of token demand.

Fourth move: the technicals are at a moment where you have to choose a direction.

$55—this level is the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone + a prior demand area. Below that, the 100-day moving average is around 57.5 (already broken). The 200-day moving average is near 50, the last line of defense.

Looking up:

First resistance: 57-58 (former support turned resistance)
Second resistance: 60-63 (dense EMA zone)
Third resistance: 67-68

Looking down:

First support: 54.7-55 (today’s low)
Second support: 52-53
Ultimate defense: 50 (200-day EMA + psychological level)

Trading volume keeps shrinking during the pullback. Analysts think this is profit-taking, not panic selling. RSI is around 43, with room to build energy. The falling wedge is converging—once it breaks out, it often resolves violently.

Longs vs shorts—you decide:

One side (bulls):

Protocol daily revenue of $1.51 million, buybacks continuing
Open interest at $11.45 billion, setting an annual high
Whale staking 2.93 million HYPE against the tide; a16z appears to be adding
New narrative from RWA + prediction market unfolding
4.73% cumulative burn, deflation ongoing

Other side (bears):

July 30 massive unlock totaling $198 million
ETF outflows continue, ending a 9-week streak of net inflows
Price breaks below the 26-day and 50-day EMAs
Weekly active users drop from 190k to 149.6k
Broader market risk appetite is low; altcoins under pressure
At $55—only 5 dollars away from the life-or-death line at $50

Resistance above: 57-58 → 60-63 → 67-68
Support below: 54.7-55 → 52-53 → 50 (iron bottom)

Trading plan (no nonsense)

For short-term traders:

Wait for 54.7-55 to print a volume-backed hammer + a bullish 4H close, then try a small long position. Target 57-58, stop-loss below 54. If there’s heavy volume breakdown below 55 and confirmation, take a momentum short—target 52-53, stop-loss 56.5-57. The FOMC meeting (July 28-29) is right ahead—don’t over-allocate before the direction is confirmed.

For swing players:

Wait for the daily close to hold above 57 before entering, or buy if it drops near 50 and shows oversold divergence. Target 60-63, then look toward 67+. Volatility around unlock dates will be huge—don’t stubbornly hold through it.

For long-term believers:

If you truly believe Hyperliquid is “the king of perpetual futures in DeFi,” DCA in the 50-55 range with a target of 150-200. The prerequisite is: you can tolerate drawdowns of 30%+ without cutting.

HYPE fell from 76 to 55, and many people are already cursing “this trash coin is going to zero.”

But have you thought about this— the protocol earns $1.51 million every day, has burned 47.3 million HYPE cumulatively, and whales are still adding at $55?

Not all down moves are a breakdown—some are “the chance to get on board.” #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #长鑫今日上市成交901亿 #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $HYPE

【Stock Market Unwritten Rules · Only Profit, No Loss Version】
Down 10% → Hold
Down 20% → Add 10%
Down 30% → Add 20%
Down 40% → Add 30%
Down 50% → Add 50%
Up 10% → Hold
Up 20% → Keep holding
Up 30% → Sell 10%
Up 40% → Sell 20%
Up 50% → Sell 30%
Up 60% → Sell 40%
Up 100% → Close out and leave
Remember:
When others panic during a drop, you add more;
When others get greedy during a rise, you sell in batches and take profits.

It’s already the second time I’ve felt unwell.
I feel like I can’t breathe and I’m going to pass out.
Last time it was also like this.
I went to the ER and they drew five tubes of blood, but they couldn’t find the cause.
When I watch negative-energy videos, I feel like I’m going to suffocate.
Hearing people talk makes me feel irritated.
Every day I find funny videos for myself.
I don’t dare to go to a psychiatrist, afraid that I might have depression 🙂‍↕️

Head back to the Northeast to the bathhouse for a shower
Soak in the lather, scrub away, and get a milk bath
Totally awesome!

Why do some people really think that a drop in US stock storage is because of China’s lithography machines? Actually, the market just wants to go down—if you look for it, you can find 100 reasons and still feel it’s reasonable.

$BTC continues to bleed as bearish pressure builds.

Momentum favors the sellers, and every bounce is being challenged.

If you're in a short trade, stay focused and manage your position carefully.

Tomorrow's Federal Funds Rate decision could bring sharp volatility, so be prepared for fast market moves.

#SummerCreationCamp
#GateCardUpTo8%Cashback #CXMTDrops7.7%AtOpen #MinnesotaPredictionMarketBanBlocked #BitmineHolds5.78METH

Technology stocks cooled off, and capital rotated into consumer and financial sectors.
Last night, US stocks diverged: the Dow rose 0.51%, the S&P was basically flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.18%; Nvidia fell by about 5%, and the semiconductor sector continued to adjust.
Today, A-share tech stocks led the decline: by midday, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.98%, and the ChiNext Board dropped 5.37%. CPO, chips, and communications dropped sharply, while liquor, banks, and education rose against the trend.
However, both markets still had more than 2,800 stocks trading higher, indicating it wasn’t a broad sell-off; instead, tech heavyweights dragged the index and market sentiment switched quickly.
#美股 #A-share #Market Recap

1M burned is just the beginning

Doubao is a big liar.
Don’t use Doubao to do fortune-telling anymore.
I tested it myself—it’s not accurate at all.
It told me my luck with money would be especially good in June and July,
and that I would make a big sum of money.
And now it’s already late July—
everything has fallen into the gutter.
Now I just want to get back to even~

4 predictions about SpaceX $SPCX in the future:
1. In 2027, AI computing power will go into space and begin small-scale testing
Space-based solar power will be more than 5 times stronger than on the ground, work 24/7 around the clock, rely on radiation for cooling, and won’t require renting land—the cost curve will keep getting lower. Combined with Starship’s high-frequency reuse, the future points to annual 100 GW-level computing power!
2. Starlink’s surge brings high-margin cash flow
Starlink users will reach 30 million in two years, and 100 million by 2034, and the direct-to-phone business will also surge along with it.
3. SpaceX’s AI business will become very formidable
There’s already a super-large cluster like Colossus. Cursor’s model was trained with reinforcement learning on it for only a few weeks, and performance jumped significantly. After that, there will also be ground-level data centers at the gigawatt scale + in-orbit computing power, and the scale of computing will far exceed most AI companies.
4. TeraFab controls the lifeline of chips itself, avoiding being choked by others
With Tesla + Intel working together to build foundries, TeraFab will gradually ramp into mass production, and semiconductor wafer supply will no longer depend on TSMC’s mood.

After SK hynix’s plunge, the largest SK hynix short on Hyperliquid is currently in profit of $6.1 million. He shorted SKHX (Korean listed SK hynix) worth $40.5 million at $1,275.7, and the price has now pulled back to $1,083, putting him up $6.1 million. In addition, he also shorted Brent crude oil (BRENTOIL) worth $19.15 million at $97.7, which is currently up $2.43 million.

About 1,500,000 units for SK hynix; about $SNDK 1,150 for SanDisk; about $MRVL 160-170. See if there’s a possibility of a bottoming out; the drop isn’t supposed to happen like this. After the earnings report and the outcome of the rate decision meeting are finalized, a rebound should be expected. These days are suitable for watching the charts closely.

I thought that before $RIVER went to Argentina just to ride the World Cup hype and do some casual marketing. But I just saw that they directly went to Buenos Aires and hung out with Circle, and even formed a circle with local Latin American founders. Pretty interesting. Everyone has been watching the markets in Europe, the US, and East Asia these days, and actually in Latin America there’s genuine demand for crypto payments and stablecoins because local currencies are depreciating—so it’s naturally an application-ready soil. $RIVER

A shares in a day, Korean shares in a day, and three days for the global storage industry: How ChangXin’s 3.28 trillion yuan smashed Samsung and SK hynix’s valuation in one night—ending an era

Have you ever seen one company flip an entire industry’s pricing power beyond recognition within a single day?

July 27, A shares. ChangXin Technology’s IPO listing day.

Closing price: 49 yuan, up 465.82% from the issue price of 8.66 yuan.

Full-day trading volume: 141.1 billion yuan—A-share history’s first stock to exceed 32.8k yuan in a single day.

Total market cap: 3.28 trillion yuan, about $32.8k.

In a day, it overtook Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, overtook Guizhou Moutai, overtook Tencent, and overtook Intel.

Topped the A-share market by market cap.

This is not an IPO. This is A shares “voting on pricing” for domestic storage localization.

But this drama has only just started.

That very night when ChangXin closed—across the ocean, U.S. stocks opened.

Storage stocks collectively avalanched—

SanDisk plunged 11.02%, down 47% from its June all-time high, with market value evaporating by about $484.6B within a month.

SK hynix’s ADR fell as much as 10%, dropping below the issue price—trading started less than three weeks ago, yet it broke issue price.

Micron fell 2.25%, while Western Digital and Seagate dropped more than 4%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.23%.

This isn’t contagion of sentiment.

It’s capital recalculating—“After China’s storage capacity enters, what does the global supply-demand balance sheet look like?”

ChangXin’s share of global DRAM revenue in Q1 2026 jumped from roughly 3% in the same period last year to 8%, ranking fourth globally. And according to broker forecasts, by the end of 2028 this figure could reach 18%.

Why would an 8% player’s IPO make industry giants fall together?

Because the market knows—8% is just the starting point.

The real heavyweights are coming on July 28.

Korean markets open.

The KOSPI index instantly plunged by more than 8%, triggering a circuit breaker and pausing trading for 20 minutes.

This is the eighth circuit breaker event for the Korean stock market this year; in July alone, there have already been three consecutive incidents.

On the heavyweight stocks front—

SK hynix plunged more than 11%.

Samsung Electronics sank nearly 9%.

Together, the two pulled the entire Korean benchmark into a bottomless pit.

Meanwhile, Japan’s stock market crashed in sync. The Nikkei 225 dropped more than 4%; Kioxia’s stock price once plunged 18%—in July, it marked the sixth single-day drop of more than 10%.

Overnight, from Shanghai to Silicon Valley, from Silicon Valley to Seoul, from Seoul to Tokyo—the valuation system for the global storage industry was rewritten by one Chinese company.

But it’s not that simple.

ChangXin’s shockwave happens to hit the most fragile time point in the Korean market.

What have Korean stocks gone through over the past half year?

Since 2026, Korean exchanges have initiated 36 temporary trading halts, triggering 7 market-wide circuit breakers—more than half of the total historical count.

The KOSPI volatility index has risen 281.8% since December last year.

On July 13, the KOSPI fell 8.95% in a single day again, triggering yet another circuit breaker.

On July 16, Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service announced a ban on new single-stock leveraged ETFs.

The Korean stock market is undergoing a “continuous and painful” deleveraging.

And right at this moment—

ChangXin arrived.

In the past, the valuation premium for Samsung and SK hynix relied on the monopoly narrative of “the world’s only three DRAM suppliers.” Now, for the first time, this story has a clear benchmark competitor and counterpart.

The “Korean two heroes” narrative is no longer exclusive.

Even more painful is that Samsung and SK hynix are about to post their earnings reports.

SK hynix will disclose its Q2 results on July 29.

Samsung Electronics will publish its full Q2 earnings report on July 30.

These two earnings reports were supposed to be a victory banquet for an “AI storage super-cycle”—with the market expecting both businesses to achieve the fastest revenue growth rate since 2010.

But ChangXin’s 3.28-trillion-yuan monster is right in front of you—

No matter how good your performance is, can you block the narrative of a “China-style Samsung” rising?

In the past, the global storage market told the story of “three giants.” Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—three-way division, pricing power in hand, making money while lying back.

Now, the fourth player has pushed the door open.

And behind this player is the market of 1.4 billion people, the nation’s team capital, and the entire imagination space behind the four words “independent and controllable.”

On ChangXin’s first day of listing, A-share storage sector stocks faced collective pressure: Beijing Junzheng Innovation fell 5%, while Xuanqi Technology and Primil Parts Co. also dropped in tandem.

But the upstream in the industry chain exploded collectively—Yangke Technology hit the daily limit; meanwhile, core suppliers such as Aepu Technology and Shanghai Silicon Industry rose together.

Capital is “voting with its feet”: who is the real leader, and who is just riding a theme—clear at a glance.

The next two key timing points will determine whether this round of repricing is “done in one day” or “has just begun”—

First, ChangXin’s next-day performance. On July 28, ChangXin opened down 7.71% to 45.22 yuan, and its market cap fell back to 3.02 trillion yuan. Is this a temporary pullback or a trend reversal?

Second, the earnings reports of Samsung and SK hynix. On July 29 and 30, the two sets of answers come out. What the market wants to see is not how high revenue is—what matters is: faced with ChangXin as a new rival, what is your “city defense strategy”?

The power structure of the global storage industry is being redrawn within 48 hours.

And you and I just happen to be standing on the dividing line.

Do you think Samsung and SK hynix’s earnings reports can withstand the valuation shock brought by ChangXin? #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #长鑫今日上市成交901亿 #夏日创作营 $SKHY $SAMSUNG $CXMT

The Korea KOSPI index has hit another trading halt again. Just now, a Korean boy messaged me to say that Korean stocks have halted trading again—Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are down 10%... This is the worst summer of his adulthood. This year, he watched with envy as coworkers around him made huge money. He threw all of his savings into the stock market and added five times leverage. In the end, he ran into the trading halt in Korean stocks and was liquidated on the spot, losing five years’ worth of savings.

Only after being stuck will you feel comfortable holding.
Profits will make you restless.

When it’s noisy and crowded, that’s when you sell—this saying is never wrong!
I want to short Changxin.
Where can I short Changxin 10x?

Only when you’re stuck will you feel secure holding.
Profit will make you restless.
$NOK When will I be able to get out of my position?
When the crowd is loud, that’s the time to sell—this saying is always right!
I want to short Changxing.
Where can I short Changxing 10x?
$CXMT

Is Bitcoin about to drop again?
Yesterday, Bitcoin failed to break above 65,500 and continued falling, breaking below 64K again, with bears once more taking the dominant advantage
With crude oil falling and the upcoming rate-setting meeting, why did Bitcoin drop first?
My view hasn’t changed—this is just the surface situation. It’s a short-term reduction in risk exposure, a washout of the earlier long positions
With recent data acting as a negative catalyst, continue to buy the dip and look for a rebound
Today the price is near 63K—this is the key support area of the prior 4-hour adjustment waiting period, and it has come
Keep a close watch on whether this level holds to stop the decline. I’ll continue to buy the dip and look for a rebound here
This is the final key support area. Once it breaks the 4-hour starting point at 62.5K, it would undermine the trend that can continue higher, and the market would then look toward 60K
The hourly chart is still bearish. In the short term, there’s no fundamental stimulus, and price action will continue with weak, range-bound fluctuations at the hourly-chart level
For the short term, you can consider shorting at 64.5–64.7K resistance
【Bitcoin section—just personal trading views and sharing, not any investment advice】
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)

Spam exists because sending noise is almost free.
Liberdus approaches this differently: users can set a toll for unsolicited messages, giving unknown senders a cost and recipients an incentive to read and respond.
Your inbox should value your attention.
@liberdus

A 75% ceasefire probability is becoming the graveyard for crypto bulls

Do you have someone like this around you?

You see the news—there’s a U.S.-Iran ceasefire—and oil prices crash, and you get excited and rush in to go long on Bitcoin. “Inflation is falling! The Fed is turning dovish! Risk On!”

So what happens next?

Bitcoin drops nearly 3%, Ethereum falls more than 3.6%, and more than 160,000 liquidations happen across the entire market in 24 hours.

Oil prices fall 8%, but the crypto market collapses first.

Confused?

Good—because the “good news” you’re seeing is the exit reason others laid out and positioned for three months ago.

First, look at what happened with oil prices.

Last week, WTI crude surged from $83.5 all the way to $94.3—that’s the process of war risk premium being priced in step by step, with every piece of news pushing oil prices higher.

Then on July 24, Trump stopped attacks on Iran. WTI slid from $94.3, and even before the weekend close it was still at $91.7.

On Monday, it opened with a gap down.

From Friday’s close of $91.7, it instantly fell to $85.3, and then slid to $84. Over three trading days, the drop was nearly 11%.

WTI ultimately closed at $82.61, down 7.5%. Brent was worse, down 8.7% to $88.36.

This isn’t a decline—this is a free fall.

But the problem is—this “good news” was already priced in.

Polymarket data shows the market’s bet on the probability of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran being reached before August 31 is already at 75%.

75%.

When everyone knows “a ceasefire is coming,” how much war risk premium is still left in oil prices to fall?

Not much.

You think an 8% drop in oil prices is a big positive? Wrong. Even after oil falls from $100 to $82, there’s still a large amount of war risk premium that hasn’t been fully flushed out. Before the war, Brent was only around $72.

In other words—

Oil hasn’t even finished falling to where it needs to, while ceasefire expectations are already basically fully priced in.

Even more dangerous is the transmission chain.

Oil price crashes → inflation expectations fall → probability of the Fed rate hikes decreases → expectations for easier liquidity → risk assets rise.

This chain looks fine.

The problem is: the market has already traded the script of “oil drops → liquidity loosens” in advance.

By the weekend, Bitcoin even surged back above $65,000. You think that was the starting point?

That was the end point.

Early on Monday in the Asia session, the crypto market was still chasing higher on the momentum of “good news” from oil’s crash. Then what happened? Bitcoin slid from above $65,600 all the way down, breaking below $64,000. Ethereum fell more than 3.6%, while Dogecoin and Solana fell more than 4%.

More than 160,000 liquidations.

Others are greedy while the ceasefire is happening—you’re taking the bag at the mountaintop.

Next, let’s say something that really hits.

Trump’s exact words were: “We are having very in-depth negotiations with Iran. If we don’t reach an agreement, we will return to very strong military action.”

“There isn’t much time. Either we make rapid progress, or it will be a complete failure.”

Translated: If it gets done, the good news is already exhausted. If talks break down, oil prices violently rebound.

And what about Iran? They deny any direct negotiations with the U.S.

Oil tanker transport through the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t restored normal operations to this day.

This “ceasefire” is as fragile as a single A4 sheet.

A 75% ceasefire probability is already Price In. The remaining 25% probability of a negotiation breakdown—that’s the real pricing variable.

Once negotiations hit any turbulence—oil prices can violently rebound from $82 to $87–$89, a gain of 7%+.

Oil rebounds 7% → inflation expectations rekindle → probability of Fed rate hikes jumps → the U.S. dollar strengthens → liquidity tightens → BTC is hit first.

Trading advice?

First, don’t chase longs at the 75% probability level. What you’re seeing is the tail end of “good news already priced in,” not the starting point.

Second, use this macro sentiment upsurge to cut positions. Others are greedy while the ceasefire happens—you cut. When others panic over a breakdown in the talks—you speak.

Third, if you absolutely must hold, buy short-term put options to hedge the spot. This week’s FOMC, the ceasefire talks, and Trump’s remarks that could reverse at any moment—any single thing can make the market turn around instantly.

When everyone believes “ceasefire = good news,” the real risk has never been in the ceasefire itself—

It’s in the fact that everyone believes it. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #长鑫今日上市成交901亿 #夏日创作营 $BTC $BZ $CL