Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

U.S. stocks really are terrifying to adjust, like that! In just one month, they were cut in half. A month ago, it was still the hottest thing going, the flashy lineup—everything was about “storing value, storing value”! Now it’s like you need to go up 100% just to get back to the previous high. That’s unbelievably scary. Meanwhile, for my big pancake, it took a whole half year from the top to be cut in half 🤣👍

So far, it seems that in the crypto space, no matter which track, there aren’t many people playing anymore, because everyone has lost all their money and mostly left. The crypto market has already collapsed since last year, 1011. But this sentence is describing the past 10 months.

Luckily: retail investors come back after two months.
Unluckily: they used AI to play for four years before coming back.

The remaining users still have one last bit of hope: that in the 2029 bull market, the BTC price exceeds $200k, roughly three times 60K. After 2030, does it gradually move toward another collapse? I’ll need Fan Shao to help me decide then. But one thing is certain: you’ll never again see that sweet mandarin orange priced below $60K.

MU worth $815 — are you catching the falling knife?

First, look at the surface: brutal pullback, panic stampede.

From the June ATH at 1255, it crashed more than 35%, and down 30% over the past month. Yesterday the underlying stock closed at 900; today it directly smashed to 790–820 intraday, with a swing of over 10%. The daily MACD forms a dead cross, volume expands, and selling pressure is heavy. Short-term it turns bearish, but 800–820 is a key Fibonacci retracement zone—historically, every time it reaches here, there’s a strong rebound. Either a violent rebound, or it continues to bleed lower.

First thing: Wall Street is shouting “the cycle has topped,” but you have to ask who’s doing the buying.

The memory industry is traditionally a cyclical stock that “surges and crashes violently.” When AI took off, MU went from 60 to 1255—up 20x. Now it’s dropping back to 815, and analysts start calling it a “supply-demand reversal” and “capex peak.”

But listen—16 strategic customer agreements lock in about $22 billion of supply for the next 3–5 years, even including “take-or-pay” terms (pay even if you don’t buy). Data-center revenue is annualizing to over $25 billion, and gross margin has surged to 80%+ at historic highs.

Second thing: AI’s “memory wall” is turning into MU’s “moat.”

The demand for memory bandwidth in Transformer models grows by 10x or more each generation. HBM (high-bandwidth memory) is in short supply, and MU’s HBM capacity has already been fully reserved for all of 2026.

No matter how strong the AI chips’ compute power is, if the data can’t be fed in, it’s scrap.

MU is the “plumber” that feeds data into AI chips.

Third thing: the night before the Fed decision—high volatility means high opportunity.

Tomorrow (July 29) is the FOMC rate decision, with expectations to keep 3.50–3.75%. But sticky inflation plus oil-price risk means there is a non-trivial probability of a rate-hike tail.

The more hawkish the Fed is, the more tech stocks fall; but once they’ve dropped, fundamentally strong names tend to bounce back first. MU is the candidate for that “first bounce back.”

Long vs short—judge for yourself.

On one side:

Revenue year-over-year +346%, EPS $25.11—strongest in history
$22 billion long-term contracts lock in 3–5 years of demand
AI memory supply/demand tightness persists through 2027
HBM capacity fully booked for 2026
Management keeps adding to holdings; valuation has retreated from extreme highs

On the other side:

Down 30% in one month; short-term trend breaks down
The Fed may skew hawkish,压科技股估值
Memory is a traditional cyclical industry—profits reverse and fall quickly
Massive profit-taking from the earlier run; sell pressure hasn’t fully flushed out

Key levels

Support: 800–820–750–780–680–700
Resistance: 850–900–950–1000–1100–1200

For short-term traders:

Pull back to 800–815, try longs with light position size, stop-loss at 780, target 850–900 to take profit in batches. If it rebounds to 850–900 and meets resistance, you can lightly short again, target a pullback to 820.

For swing traders:

Hold 780 and after volume expands to stand稳 above 900, add on the right side and look toward 950–1000+. If it breaks below 780, switch to defense or lightly short; target 750–700.

For long-term believers:

Build positions in batches in the 780–820 range. Betting that AI memory demand isn’t a bubble—long-term contracts lock in the bottom of the cycle, management keeps adding shares, and HBM tech barriers run deep. But remember—only use spare money; add again if it drops to 680–700, and strictly control total position size.

MU now is like NVDA in 2022—

99% of people think “the AI bubble has burst,” yet NVDA rose from 108 to 1000.

The day it regains 900, you’ll realize:

It’s not that MU can’t—it's that you cut losses every single time at the moment you’re most panicked. #USD1持币生息最高8% #长鑫开盘跌7.7% #明尼苏达预测市场禁令被叫停 $MU $SKHY $NVDA

$ coin is shouting “damn, 127x.”

From a plunge from 2350 to 1150, SNDK got slashed in half—and then slashed again. Will you dare to buy the dip?

First, look at the surface: an avalanche-style drop, panic at its peak.

From the June 2350+ historical high to around 1150 today—within two months it’s been cut in half more than once. The daily chart has already broken below all moving averages; MACD bearish momentum is expanding; RSI has fallen into the oversold zone at 30-40; trading volume has surged, confirming the selling pressure. The weekly chart has repeatedly broken down; the monthly chart has retreated by over 40%. Either it will rebound violently after being extremely oversold, or it will keep drifting lower while searching for a bottom.

This is the most fragmented market this year: the stock price is down to the dogs, while the performance is unbelievably good.

First: AI storage demand hasn’t collapsed—the one that collapsed is “belief.”

Why is it down? Three words: profit-taking.

Doubts about AI memory demand, competition concerns triggered by China’s CXMT IPO, and a collective selloff in global chip stocks—Korean and Japanese memory stocks’ crash is transmitting to US stocks. But all of that is “sentiment,” not “facts.”

What are the facts?

Q3 revenue was $5.95 billion, up twofold month-over-month; data center revenue surged by 200%+

Gross margin jumped to over 70%, and free cash flow exploded

Second: the July 29 FOMC—this may be the trigger point.

The Fed meeting is tomorrow, and the market is betting on rate-cut expectations. Today’s CPI has already softened. If the Fed turns dovish, growth stocks will launch immediately. As an AI storage leader like SNDK, the upside is far greater than the broader market.

Earnings are on August 5; there isn’t much time left for the bears.

If the Fed is more dovish + the earnings report reiterates AI spending, SNDK only needs two weeks to rebound from 1150 back to 1600+.

Third: a technical signal has appeared that you must pay attention to.

The 1150-1200 range is the current key support zone and also the dense prior trading area. Today it dropped to around 1150 with heavy volume, showing that bulls and bears are fighting fiercely right here.

If 1150 holds and it reclaims 1250 with volume, the oversold repair starts; the targets are 1400-1500. If it breaks below 1100, then look at 1000, or even 800-900.

It’s a duel between bulls and bears—you decide:

On one side:

Revenue up more than double year-over-year; data center revenue up over 200%+

Gross margin at 70%; strong free cash flow; zero debt

42B+ locked-in orders—very high visibility on performance

RSI oversold; historical probability of a rebound

FOMC + earnings are right around the corner—dense catalysts

On the other side:

Global chip stocks are being sold off collectively; sentiment is extremely bad

Technical chart broke down; trend is downward

Skepticism about whether AI capex is sustainable

The “boom-bust” cycle curse in the memory industry

Key levels

Resistance above: 1250-1300 → 1400-1500 → 1600-1650

Support below: 1100 (psychological level) → 1000 → 800-900

For short-term traders:

Pull back to 1100-1150 with a small position to try longs; stop-loss at 1050; take profit in batches at 1250-1300. If it rebounds above 1250, trim or lightly short; target is a retest around 1200.

For swing traders:

Wait for the daily chart to stabilize above 1300 before entering from the right side; target is 1600+. If it breaks below 1000, stay on the sidelines and wait for an even lower accumulation zone.

For long-term believers:

If you believe AI storage is the main line for the next ten years, then 1000-1150 is your phased DCA zone.

SNDK now is like NVIDIA at the end of 2022—

Earnings surged, the stock price got halved, retail investors cursed it out, and institutions bought the bottom. Later, NVIDIA went from 140 to over 1000+.

At 1150, is SNDK’s pile of shares soaked in blood, or is it a bottomless pit?

The answer isn’t in the candlesticks—it’s in the earnings report on August 5. #USD1持币生息最高8% #长鑫开盘跌7.7% #明尼苏达预测市场禁令被叫停 $SNDK $MU $NVDA

I’ve been using Swiftbird VPN recently, and my biggest takeaway is that it’s stable. On X, Telegram, and YouTube, pages basically load instantly. The Little Rocket airport nodes are also very fast, and during the evening peak hours there are very few disconnections. Whether you’re chasing trending topics, working, or just watching videos, you don’t have to worry about network lag. There’s still a free trial now—if you need it, you can try it yourself 👇 🔗 #VPN # bypass #小火箭 # airport

$73 worth of SOL—are you looking to buy the dip?

First, look at the surface: prices are soft, and sentiment is pessimistic.

Down 3.5% in 24 hours, retreating 5% on the week; it was smashed back from the top of the $80 range box into the mid-to-lower part of the $73 area. Trading volume is shrinking, open interest is falling, and leverage has been cleanly liquidated. $73 is triple support—50-day moving average + 0.786 Fibonacci + a demand zone—and has defended successfully multiple times. RSI is neutral-to-weak in the 40–50 range; MACD is stuck to the zero line—either a double-bottom rebound, or a breakdown to $63.

First thing: ETF fee cuts to 0—what are institutions waiting for?

21Shares’ SOL ETF (TSOL) announced its management fee drops directly to 0, from 0.21% to zero. This is the first time in crypto ETF history that a mainstream product offers a zero-fee rate.

Spot SOL ETF cumulative AUM has already broken $1 billion, with multiple days of positive inflows in July. Coinbase launched Solana’s new coin instant DEX trading; RWA tokenized stock trading volume has surged explosively; and perpetual DEX quarterly trading volume hit a new record.

All the data is rising—only the price is falling.

Second thing: ecosystem data exploded, but you’re blinded by price.

TVL holds steady at 4.9–5B, stablecoin supply at 16B+, and weekly active addresses and trading volume remain near historical highs. RWA value is 3B+ and the growth rate is astonishing. Alpenglow consensus upgrade is underway, targeting 150ms finality—pushing performance up another magnitude.

Price is down 20%, but fundamentals are up 50%. I’ve only seen this kind of divergence in 2020 ETH and 2023 BTC.

Third thing: the FOMC decision is coming—this is the real catalyst.

On the evening of July 29, the Federal Reserve’s meeting: the market expects rates to stay unchanged, but the probability of rate hikes is priced at 20–35%. Why? Oil-price geopolitical disruptions + inflation stickiness.

The key isn’t whether they hike this time—it’s what Waller says.

More dovish: improved liquidity expectations—SOL, a high-beta asset, gets directly propelled back above 80+.

More hawkish: another dump to 70–63, but that would be the last chance to get in.

The battle between bulls and bears—judge for yourself.

On one side:
ETF management fees cut to 0, institutional allocation costs become zero
RWA, stablecoins, and active addresses all hit new highs
$73 triple support, and whales are quietly accumulating
If FOMC turns dovish, that’s an immediate catalyst

On the other side:
Macroeconomic uncertainty remains; rate-hike probability still exists
$80 has been missed three times—psychological pressure is huge
If BTC loses 63K, SOL may test 65–63
Trading volume is shrinking—short-term momentum is insufficient

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 75–78 → 80 (range top + 100-day EMA) → 88–98
Support below: 73–74 (triple support) → 70–71 (rising trendline) → 63–65 (iron floor)

For short-term traders:
Pull back to 73–73.5 to test a small long; stop-loss at 70; target 75–78. If it breaks 80, then look for 88–98.

For swing players:
Wait for a daily close to hold above 80 before adding on the right side; target 90–98. If there’s an effective drop below 70 with volume, then switch to watch mode or take a light short aiming at 65–63.

For long-term believers:
DCA below 73; overweight in the 65–70 range. Target 150–200 by late 2026—betting on the rate-cut cycle + continued ETF inflows + Alpenglow upgrade delivery.

SOL right now is like SOL at the end of 2023—

When it was at 80, everyone shouted “topping out,” and then the next wave went straight to 200.

At $73, is it the main force reversing to pick up buyers—or preparing to floor it and go all in?

The answer isn’t in the chart—it’s in your nerve. #USD1持币生息最高8% #长鑫开盘跌7.7% #明尼苏达预测市场禁令被叫停 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Everyone says storage is in short supply. Sorry—so long as we Chinese enter the market, there can’t really be a true shortage of supply.
The rise of Changxin Storage is not just the addition of one more storage manufacturer; it means the global storage industry has started to reprice.
Samsung is down, SK hynix is down, and U.S. listed storage stocks are also down. In essence, what’s falling is expectations for future profits.
Someone says: Haven’t stocks in China’s A-share market also fallen?

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$0.06 worth of ZAMA—are you betting on the FHE leader’s future, or the house’s sickle?

First, the surface: a barrage of positives, but the price can’t surge.

On July 24, Zama’s Confidential RFQ went live on the Ethereum mainnet, and the token price jumped that day. On July 27, Zama announced confidential transfers achieving 1040 TPS on a single-node 8×H100 GPU. On July 23, ZAMA had just climbed 25.9% to land third on CMC’s Hot list. Yet the price kept grinding around 0.064, volume shrank, and perpetual futures OI continued to fall. All the good news is out, but the ATH is still unreachable.

First thing: 1000 TPS—maybe bigger than you think.

On July 27, the Zama team announced TFHE-rs v1.7 achieves 1040 TPS confidential ERC-7984 transfers on a single node. The cost per transaction is below 0.00005 dollars. It comes a full year ahead of the original roadmap.

Before, everyone criticized FHE as “too slow to be practical.” Now Zama is running 1040 TPS on H100 GPUs. The bottleneck is no longer the encryption computation itself, but the underlying blockchain consensus speed. This means FHE is moving from a “lab toy” to “commercial-grade infrastructure.”

Second thing: Confidential RFQ—institutions finally get a dark pool.

On July 24, Zama officially launched the FHE-based Confidential RFQ protocol. On-chain large trades no longer need to go in the open—trade size, buy/sell direction, and asset type are all encrypted. Even harsher: 100% of swap fees are used to buy back and burn ZAMA tokens.

For institutions, privacy is a must-have. Zama is building a “privacy highway” for them.

Third thing: tokenomics—both an ace and a soft spot.

ZAMA’s mechanism is enticing: 100% of fees are burned, and operators rely on issuance rewards. Currently, about 34% of circulating supply is staked. Circulation is 2.2B, total supply is 11B, and the circulating ratio is only 20%.

The upside is: as long as more people use the network, burn speed can keep up, and the deflationary model works.

The downside is: 4.06 million ZAMA worth $200k flows into the market every day. That’s 1.98 billion tokens unlocked each year, until 2030.

A closer threat: on August 2, 27.95 million tokens unlock, worth $15.11 million. Although it’s only a little over 1% of total circulating supply, at the current high level, any sell pressure could trigger a stampede.

Bull-bear showdown—judge for yourself

One side is:

1000 TPS technical breakthrough—FHE moves from lab to commercial use

Confidential RFQ goes live—opens a privacy trading channel for institutions

34% of circulating supply already staked—Holders are reluctant to sell

Weekly +46%, monthly +80%—clear uptrend, bullish

Privacy computing is the core narrative of 2026, and Zama is the “shovel seller” role

The other side is:

August 2 unlocks 27.95 million tokens worth $15.11 million

OI keeps falling, funding rates turn positive, and the market is crowded with longs

0.064 failed three times—ATH pressure is huge

FDV is 5× market cap—dilution pressure is long-term

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 0.062-0.064 (ATH) → 0.07-0.08 (sentiment extension)

Support below: 0.05-0.055 (recent pullback zone) → 0.045 (stronger psychological level)

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 0.05-0.055 to stabilize, then try a light long. Stop loss at 0.048, first target 0.062-0.064.

For swing traders:

Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume above 0.064 to chase from the right side. Target 0.07-0.08. If it breaks below 0.05 around/ before August 2 with volume, exit unconditionally and stand aside.

For long-term gamblers:

DCA in batches below 0.05—betting on the long-term narrative that “FHE becomes standard in blockchains.”

ZAMA now is like SOL in 2021—

99% of people think, “yet another hype asset,” and it goes from $2 to $200.

But at the 0.06 level, is it the starting point of the next SOL—or another “public offering breaks issue” pit?

The answer isn’t in the candlesticks—it’s in the order book around August 2. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #长鑫今日上市成交901亿 #夏日创作营 $BTC $SOL $ZAMA

Markets are under pressure today, with over $1.4T erased across major asset classes.

The sell-off is being driven by a combination of factors:

→ Fed uncertainty pushing investors into a defensive mode
→ Crypto regulation delays weighing on sentiment
→ China’s chip advancements challenging the AI narrative
→ Concerns about AI valuations and spending
→ Yen weakness increasing BOJ intervention risks

When multiple uncertainties hit at once, markets tend to reprice quickly.

#USD1StakingEarnUpTo8%APR
#GateCardUpTo8%Cashback
#CXMTDrops7.7%AtOpen

Let me talk about how I judge the mid- to long-term outlook. I think companies like Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk will most likely be in a bad market for a long time in the future. With this kind of drawdown, this kind of slope, and this drop—most likely it’s only the first wave. So when there’s an opportunity to rebound, it will definitely be a good time to exit, not something to hold on to out of faith. This is the information the market/price action is giving me.

Ahead of the FOMC, BTC breaks below 63,500! The phantom rate-hike returns—are you panicking?

First, look at the surface: panic spreads, rivers of blood.

BTC is down nearly 3% over 24 hours, dipping as low as 63,055—almost erasing all gains from the past two weeks. Asian equities are sliding across the board: South Korea’s KOSPI drops as much as 11%. Semiconductor panic spills over into the crypto market. Total liquidations across the whole network exceed $600 million, with long positions wiped out everywhere. Price breaks below the 100-day EMA; the mid-term trend turns bearish. RSI is neutral but on the low side, and the MACD bearish crossover widens. The FOMC decides life or death—if it breaks below 63,000, it turns into a bottomless pit.

First thing: Asia’s stocks crashed, but you might be blaming the wrong people.

Samsung and SK hynix plunge on concerns about AI chip competition, and the KOSPI triggers a circuit breaker. Asian risk assets collapse together, and BTC is dumped along with everything else as “high-beta junk.”

But look at on-chain data—long-term holders’ share is rising to a historical high, and mid-sized whales (10-100 thousand BTC addresses) have still been net accumulating recently.

Same script: in July 2024, Japan’s stock market crashed. BTC got smashed to 54,000, then after whales accumulated, it surged to 74,000 over the next two months.

Second thing: the probability of rate hikes jumps from 0 to 55%—the market is pricing in the worst case.

A month ago, CPI came in soft and the market celebrated “a rate cut in September is a must.” What happened? Geopolitical oil-price disruptions plus inflation stickiness—FOMC rate-hike odds surged from 13% to 55% in one go.

The Fed will deliver its decision tomorrow around midnight. Market expectations are “hold steady.” But if the dot plot turns hawkish, or the chair’s tone is firm—BTC could directly smash through 63,000 and head for 60,000.

But if the decision is dovish, even hinting at room for rate cuts this year—revenge-bounce could jump straight back to 66,000+.

Third thing: the technicals have reached a “make-or-break” moment.

On a daily timeframe, BTC has repeatedly stalled in the 66,000-67,000 area, forming something like a double-top structure. RSI is neutral, MACD leans bearish, and price is below the 100-day EMA. The medium-to-long-term trend is already weakening—unless the FOMC comes in hard to save the day.

Long vs short—judge for yourself.

On one side:

Long-term holders’ share at a historical high; smart money is accumulating

MVRV around 1.2, in a historically undervalued zone

If the FOMC turns dovish, revenge-bounce upside is huge

Afterglow from the soft June CPI still lingers

On the other side:

Rate-hike odds spike to 55%; the market is pricing hawkishness

Asian stocks crash; risk appetite collapses

ETF continues net outflows; institutions aren’t stepping in to buy

Price breaks below key moving averages; medium-term trend stays bearish

Key levels

Resistance above: 64,500-65,000 → 65,500-66,000 → 66,800

Support below: 63,000 → 62,000-62,500 → 60,000-60,500

Before FOMC:

Those with no position: watch and do nothing.

Holders: reduce leverage to below 3x, or just clear out and wait for the outcome.

Aggressive players:

If price holds 63,000 and bounces with volume, try a long with small size; target 64,500-65,000; stop-loss 62,800. If it breaks 63,000 and accelerates downward, lightly chase the short; target 62,000-60,500; stop-loss 63,800.

Post-decision strategy (by scenario):

Dovish (hold steady + mild wording): BTC likely bounces to 65,000-66,000; pullback near 64,000 to go long; targets 67,000-68,000.

Hawkish (rate hike or firm wording): BTC likely dumps toward 60,000-61,000; wait, and consider bottom-catching again at 58,000-60,000.

Rate-hike probability has surged to 55%—the market has already digested part of the hawkish expectations. If tomorrow is just “hold steady,” that counts as a positive.

If 63,000 can’t be held, the next liquidity zone is 60,000. But for BTC at 60,000, looking at the three-year cycle—selling at any price is wrong.

The FOMC only ever affects one week, not one year. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #长鑫今日上市成交901亿 #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $SOL

ETH worth $1,880—you’re cutting losses, while whales are devouring your bloody chips!

First, look at the surface: risk-off before the event, panic stampede.

Yesterday it was still trading in the 1,950-1,980 range—now it’s straight back down to 1,880 for you. In 24 hours it’s down nearly 4%. The whole network saw both long and short liquidations. Retail traders are panicking hard. Since rebounding from the June low at 1,550, it’s already up 25-30%. Now it’s pulling back into the 1,850-1,880 zone. RSI is just about 54, neutral; MACD on the short-term has started showing sell signals. Either hold 1,850 and push toward 2,000, or if it breaks down, it could test 1,800.

First thing: ETF net inflows have been positive for five weeks—what are you still afraid of?

In the past week, ETF net inflows totaled $104 million. BlackRock’s ETHA is the biggest buyer—on July 27 alone it added another 9.23 million in a single day. Cumulative net inflows are already over $11 billion, and AUM stands at 10.65B. Institutions have been sweeping the 1,880-1,970 range for weeks—you’re still trying to guess the top?

BitMine is even more ruthless—its holdings are directly at 5.79 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of circulating supply. Most of it is used for staking.

Second thing: Is FOMC bullish or bearish? The answer is tomorrow night!

The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision; the current rate is 3.50%-3.75%. What does the market fear most? That Waller keeps saying “inflation is stubborn,” and considers raising rates.

Most of the hawkish commentary has already been priced in. If tonight turns out dovish (hold steady + weaken hints of rate hikes), ETH will launch straight toward 1,950-2,000. If it’s hawkish, then it will probe 1,820-1,850—this is classic event-driven price action.

Third thing: The Glamsterdam upgrade has been pushed to Q3—but this is the real bullish signal!

A lot of people see the words “pushed back” and panic. I’ll tell you the truth: the delay is to increase the gas limit to a higher level, enable proposer-builder separation, and make MEV more fair. In plain terms, they’re holding back the big move.

The Lido staking module migration is progressing—30% of the supply has already been staked and locked, greatly reducing liquid selling pressure. EIP-1559 is burning coins every day.

Long vs short—judge for yourself

One side is:

ETF net inflows for five straight weeks, institutions continuously buying

BitMine holds 5.79 million ETH (4.8% of circulating supply), and giant whales are collectively sweeping the 1,700-1,970 range

30% of supply staked and locked, liquidity is scarce

A 60% discount versus ATH, but fundamentals are stronger than in 2025

The other side is:

Tonight’s FOMC decision—if hawkish, a short-term sell-off

If technicals break below 1,900, short-term MACD sell signals appear

The 200-day moving average is overhead resistance (2,100-2,200)

High-rate macro environment suppresses risk assets

Key levels

Resistance: 1,900-1,920 → 1,950-1,960 → 2,000 (psychological level) → 2,100-2,200

Support: 1,850 (first lifeline) → 1,820-1,830 → 1,800 (hard floor)

For short-term traders:

Before FOMC, either clear out or keep an ultra-small position and wait. After the decision: dovish—go long directly, target 1,950-2,000; hawkish—pick it up at 1,820-1,850, stop loss at 1,780.

For swing traders:

In the 1,850-1,880 range, build long positions in batches, stop loss below 1,820, target 1,950-2,000. If it breaks above 2,000, look for 2,100-2,200. Continuous ETF inflows are the biggest conviction.

For long-term believers:

DCA blindly from 1,800-1,880 and hold for 1-2 years. Target 3,500-4,000 (rate-cut cycle + ongoing ETF net inflows + Glamsterdam landing). But remember—if 1,850 can’t be held, get out first; don’t fight it. If it comes back, then re-enter.

ETH right now is like Bitcoin in March 2020—

Pandemic crash, everyone panicking, miners shutting down—then a few months later it goes straight from 38,000 to 65,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #夏日创作营 #长鑫今日上市成交901亿 #ETH重返1900美元

Robin Chain’s difficulty this week is at a hell-level. There are more platforms than people. Only Pons has relatively good platform traffic—but if the main funds are sent too early, then no one will be willing to rally around and build up the ecosystem zone. And since the main funds will only increase in line with the figures coming out of the battlefront, in this kind of environment, Robin Chain’s reputation with newcomers will keep getting worse. More and more people will only think of Noxa. By the time the flywheel is no longer enough to keep things moving, you’ll clearly see Pons’s bottleneck—Pons

Brought a smile after getting laughed at by a fruit stall sign at the supermarket!
Don’t ask whether the fruit is sweet
It’s like asking whether your boyfriend loves you
It doesn’t make sense
Which boss would say it’s not sweet?
Which man would say he doesn’t love you?
Be good! If you want to eat, just buy 🍍
Sure enough, girls have to please themselves first

2026 US stock super earnings season ultimate showdown! 72-hour key watch list:
Wednesday 7月29日
1. Nvidia $NVDA
has no earnings report this week, but as the leader in AI compute, giants such as Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon continue to expand AI capital expenditures. If earnings season validates that AI investment keeps growing, Nvidia as the leader in AI compute remains the most direct beneficiary for the market.
2. Meta Platform $META
releases after the close. Consensus is EPS around $7.13–7.23, revenue around $60.2–60.3B (YoY +26–27%), close to the upper end of its own guidance ($58–61B). The key is ad revenue, AI capital expenditures, and whether it has pushed surplus compute for external sales. If ad revenue beats expectations and spending is controllable, there is significant upside potential for profit expectations and the stock may sustain its strength (implied volatility around ±8%); if spending is revised up again but returns fall short, it could pull back.
3. Microsoft $MSFT
consensus is EPS around $4.21–4.24, revenue around $87.4–87.7B (YoY about +14–15%), within its own guidance range. The key metrics are Azure (management guidance remains constant in constant-currency growth of about 39–40%; the market focuses on whether it can hold steady or accelerate), Copilot commercialization, and gross margin versus AI investment returns. If Azure delivers and provides positive FY2027 guidance, it will strengthen the narrative of the AI business model and support the stock; if growth slows or concerns about capital expenditures intensify, near-term pressure is likely (implied volatility around ±7%). AI recurring revenue has already surged significantly—this is a key validation point.
4. SK Hynix $SKHY
market consensus revenue is about 84.1 trillion won, operating profit about 64.1 trillion won. Operating margin is expected to reach 75–77% (a record), driven by HBM (especially the dominant share led by HBM3E), DRAM/NAND price increases, and long-term agreements. Watch HBM order visibility, capacity expansion, and forward guidance. If it delivers high profit and provides a positive demand outlook, it will strengthen the narrative of an AI storage super-cycle and boost both the stock and the storage sector; if price or share signals are weak, volatility will increase.
5. Qualcomm $QCOM
consensus revenue is about $9.7B (its own guidance $9.2–10B). Beyond the smartphone business, the focus is validating the contribution and guidance from new growth curves in AI PCs, automotive, and data center/edge AI chips. If progress on diversification beats expectations, it helps with re-rating; if it remains highly dependent on the smartphone cycle, the reaction may be muted. Implied volatility about ±10%.
6. Arm Holdings $ARM
consensus is adjusted EPS of $0.41 and revenue of about $1.27B. Focus on licensing and royalty fees (especially data center/AI-related), orders for new architectures (such as AGI CPU), and longer-term ecosystem expansion. With a high valuation, if growth and guidance are strong it can hold up; otherwise it’s prone to a pullback (implied volatility is higher, about ±15%).
7. Robinhood $HOOD
consensus EPS is $0.41, revenue $1.23–1.27B. Focus on trading volume, active users, a rebound in crypto trading, the contribution from prediction markets, and growth in the Robinhood Gold subscription. If crypto and activity exceed expectations, the upside leverage is larger; after a miss earlier and subsequent pullback, the results and guidance will determine the near-term direction.
Thursday 7月30日
8. Apple $AAPL
consensus EPS is about $1.88–1.89, revenue about $108.9–110B (YoY about +15–16%). Focus on iPhone demand, services business (App Store, iCloud, Apple Intelligence, etc., potentially hitting a new high), gross margin (memory cost pressure and price increases offsetting), performance in China, and leadership transition (hardware leader taking over related responsibilities), as well as how AI features drive the hardware upgrade cycle. The company has often beaten expectations historically, but with the stock trading at elevated levels, any cautious guidance or cost concerns could trigger volatility (implied about ±4%). Services and AI deployment are the differentiated highlights.
9. Amazon $AMZN
consensus EPS is $1.81–1.82, revenue about $196–197B (guidance $194–199B). The core is AWS (previously accelerated to about 28%; the market expects it to continue or move further into the 30%+ range—AI workloads and backlog orders are key), advertising’s high-margin contribution, retail efficiency, and overall capital expenditures (AI-related scale is massive). If AWS accelerates and provides positive outlook, it could be “beat and raise,” boosting the cloud and AI segments; if growth or FCF is dragged by spending, it will face pressure (implied about ±7%).
10. Samsung Electronics $005930.KS
Market attention is on details of the Device Solutions semiconductor segment, HBM3E yield and HBM4 mass-production progress, the competitive landscape versus SK Hynix in the AI storage supply chain, and demand and pricing outlook. If HBM progress and profit structure exceed expectations, it will strengthen the storage super-cycle; otherwise it will intensify concerns about supply and competition.
Key macro focus this week
11. Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Probability of hold is about 60–70%+; rate-hike scenario implies a 25–40% range fluctuation. No SEP/dot plot. Watch the wording in the statement, dissenting votes (possibly 1–2 votes supporting a hike), and the Fed Chair’s press conference (Kevin Warsh) comments on the inflation path, employment, and the future path. If it tilts dovish (emphasizing data dependence and downplaying near-term hikes), growth stocks and the AI sector are likely to get a boost; if it tilts hawkish (setting up for hikes in September), valuations will face pressure. Oil prices and geopolitical factors remain upside risks to inflation.
12. Core PCE + GDP + initial jobless claims
GDP (Q2 advance): consensus around the 1.8–2.1% range.
Personal income and spending, PCE (June): core PCE consensus is about 0.2% QoQ and about 3.3% YoY (prior value about 3.4%); for overall PCE, watch whether YoY continues to cool.
Initial jobless claims: consensus around 200k.
A continued cooling of inflation plus a moderate slowdown in the economy is favorable for risk assets; if inflation persistence or growth is too strong, it reinforces hawkish pricing.
Who do you think will be the biggest winner of this earnings season?
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2026 US stock mega earnings week ultimate showdown! 72-hour key watchlist:
Wednesday July 29
1. NVIDIA $NVDA
has no earnings report this week, but as the leading AI compute power name, giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon continue to expand AI capital expenditure. If the earnings week validates that AI investment keeps rising, NVIDIA will remain the most directly beneficiary asset in the market.
2. Meta Platforms $META
will release after the close. Consensus is about EPS $7.13–7.23, revenue about $60.2–60.3B (YoY +26–27%), close to its own guidance upper end ($58–61B). The key is ad revenue, AI capital expenditure, and whether it moves excess compute capacity to external sales. If ads beat expectations and spending stays controllable, there is significant upside room for profit forecasts, and the stock may sustain its strength (implied volatility about ±8%); if spending is revised higher again but returns miss, it could pull back.
3. Microsoft $MSFT
consensus is about EPS $4.21–4.24, revenue about $87.4–87.7B (YoY about +14–15%), within its own guidance range. The key metrics are Azure (management guidance remains constant for growth of roughly 39–40% in constant currency; the market watches whether it can hold steady or accelerate), Copilot commercialization, and gross margin versus AI investment returns. If Azure delivers and provides positive FY2027 guidance, it will strengthen the AI business model narrative and support the stock price; if growth slows or concerns about capital expenditure rise, near-term pressure is likely (implied volatility about ±7%). AI recurring revenue has already expanded meaningfully—this is a key validation point.
4. SK Hynix $SKHY
market consensus revenue is about 84.1 trillion won, operating profit about 64.1 trillion won. Operating margin is expected to reach 75–77% (a record high), driven by HBM (especially HBM3E leading share), and DRAM/NAND price increases plus long-term agreements. Also, the share of AI data center customers is rising. Focus on HBM order visibility, capacity expansion, and forward guidance. If it delivers high profits and gives a positive demand outlook, it will reinforce the AI storage super-cycle narrative, boosting the stock price and the storage sector; if price or share signals are weak, volatility will increase.
5. Qualcomm $QCOM
consensus revenue is about $9.7B range (its own guidance $9.2–10B). Beyond the smartphone business, the focus is to validate the contribution and guidance from new growth curves in AI PCs, automobiles, and data center/edge AI chips. If progress on diversification beats expectations, it can support a re-rating; if it still relies heavily on the smartphone cycle, the reaction may be muted. Implied volatility about ±10%.
6. Arm Holdings $ARM
consensus is about adjusted EPS $0.41, revenue about $1.27B. Focus on licensing and royalty usage (especially data center/AI-related), orders for new architectures (such as an AGI CPU), and long-term ecosystem expansion. With a high valuation, if growth and guidance are strong it can hold up; otherwise it is prone to pullbacks (implied volatility higher, about ±15%).
7. Robinhood $HOOD
consensus is about EPS $0.41, revenue about $1.23–1.27B. Focus on trading volume, user activity, a rebound in crypto trading, contribution from prediction markets, and growth in Robinhood Gold subscriptions. If crypto and activity beat expectations, there is greater upside. After having missed earlier and then retraced, the results and guidance will determine the near-term direction.
Thursday July 30
8. Apple $AAPL
consensus is about EPS $1.88–1.89, revenue about $108.9–110B (YoY about +15–16%). Focus on iPhone demand, services business (App Store, iCloud, Apple Intelligence, etc., with potential for another record), gross margin (memory cost pressure and price hikes offsetting), performance in China, and leadership transition (hardware head taking over related responsibilities), plus how AI features push the hardware upgrade cycle. The company has historically often beaten, but when running at high levels, any cautious guidance or cost concerns could trigger volatility (implied about ±4%). Services plus AI rollout are the differentiation highlights.
9. Amazon $AMZN
consensus is about EPS $1.81–1.82, revenue about $196–197B (guidance $194–199B). The core is AWS (accelerated earlier to about 28%; the market expects it to sustain or move further into the 30%+ range—AI workloads and backlog orders are key), advertising high-margin contribution, retail efficiency, and overall capital expenditure (AI-related scale is large). If AWS accelerates and delivers a positive outlook, it could be “beat and raise,” boosting the cloud and AI segment; if growth or FCF is dragged down by spending, it will face pressure (implied volatility about ±7%).
10. Samsung Electronics $005930.KS
Market focuses on Device Solutions semiconductor segment details, HBM3E yield, and HBM4 mass production progress, as well as the competitive landscape with SK Hynix in the AI storage supply chain, along with demand and pricing outlook. If HBM progress and profit structure beat expectations, it will reinforce the storage super-cycle; otherwise it will heighten concerns about supply and competition.
This week’s macro focus
11. Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Probability of holding steady is about 60–70%+, with volatility around a 25–40% hike range. No SEP/dot plot. Focus on wording in the statement, dissenting votes (possibly 1–2 votes supporting a hike), and the chairman’s press conference (Kevin Warsh) on comments about the inflation path, jobs, and the future path. If it is dovish (emphasizing data dependence and downplaying near-term hikes), growth stocks and the AI sector are likely to get a boost; if it is hawkish (laying groundwork for hikes in September), valuations will face pressure. Oil prices and geopolitical factors remain upside risks for inflation.
12. Core PCE + GDP + initial jobless claims
GDP (Q2 advance): consensus about the 1.8–2.1% range.
Personal income and spending, PCE (June): core PCE consensus about 0.2% m/m and about 3.3% y/y (prior value about 3.4%); for overall PCE y/y, watch whether it continues to fall.
Initial jobless claims: consensus around 200K.
Cooling inflation plus moderate economic slowdown benefits risk assets; if inflation stickiness or growth is too strong, it will reinforce hawkish pricing.
Who do you think will be the biggest winner of this earnings week?
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About the trade that’s about to happen immediately:
1⃣️It’s betting on a rebound after an oversold drop. Right now, it’s still not certain that this leg of selling has finished yet;
2⃣️So the strategy uses a left-side entry approach. If the total rebound is 30% or 50%, then by the time you enter on the right side, the price may already have run to/advanced by about 20%;
3⃣️There’s nothing about “buying slowly.” This is inherently a speculative move, not like there are tens of millions of people all going all-in on AI hardware—so what’s the point of “buying slowly”?

When prices are rising, technical analysis and charts are useless, because empiricism can’t predict the irrational peak of leveraged sentiment.
When prices are falling, technical analysis and charts instead seem valuable, because the historical process of deleveraging is always strikingly similar.
This has been reflected multiple times in the BTC 120k to 60k path we experienced and in the leverage-cut (slash) trend. For this round, many of those around me who managed to avoid being caught in the leverage-cut (slash) were once burned during BTC 100k to 80k—learning from the experience—and then reused this experience from the downturn trend.