Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

The Fed kept rates at 3.50%–3.75% at its July meeting, but three officials called for a 25-basis-point hike; the official statement still emphasized that inflation remains above target.
As of August 3, the expectation of a rate hike on September 17 was 73.6%.
Today’s latest expectation is 64.7%.
This shows that market expectations for a September rate hike are getting higher and higher (with expectations this high, it will be difficult for the market to turn bullish in the near term).
August’s data will be crucial. Nonfarm payrolls data on the 7th is expected to come in above 80k, while the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3%.
The actual data release will be crucial.
The pressure is on Warsh! If all the data strongly favor a rate hike, can Warsh withstand the pressure and keep rates unchanged?
$XAU $CL
{future}(XAUUSDT)

Lost $57.2 million, yet its stock rose 5%

Something interesting happened yesterday.

American Bitcoin, the mining company owned by the Trump family, released its Q2 financial report.

It posted a net loss of $57.2 million, marking its third consecutive quarter of losses.

Normally, a financial report like this should send the stock crashing.

But what happened? The stock rose more than 5% after the report was released.

Has the market gone crazy?

No. The market is more clear-headed than anyone.

Let's look at the numbers:

In Q2, the company's Bitcoin reserves rose from 7,021 BTC to 8,002 BTC, an increase of 14% for the quarter.

It mined 932 BTC during the same period, a company record.

Mining revenue was $67 million, up 8% quarter over quarter.

Where did the $57.2 million loss come from?

A $71.2 million fair-value impairment on its Bitcoin holdings.

Translation:

BTC prices fell, so the value of its holdings on the books was revalued at market prices, resulting in a $71.2 million reduction. This was not a cash outflow, but an accounting exercise.

The company did not sell a single BTC.

All 932 BTC it mined were added to its reserves.

The loss is a figure on paper; the increased holdings are real assets.

What were Eric Trump's exact words?

“Bitcoin never moves in a straight line, and we never assumed it would when we built this company.”

“Our advantage is that we do not buy at market prices; our mining costs are roughly half the market price.”

The mining cost per BTC is approximately $36,500.

The BTC price that day was $63,150.

Each BTC mined generated a profit of $26,650.

Would you do this business?

More interestingly—

That same week, Trump Media transferred BTC worth $165 million (approximately 2,628 BTC) to Crypto com.

The company said, “It wasn't sold; it was merely transferred into custody.”

But the on-chain data is crystal clear—the BTC holdings fell to approximately 4,261 BTC, exactly matching the amount pledged as collateral for convertible bonds.

One company is aggressively accumulating, while the other is quietly pledging.

The same family, the same coin price, and completely opposite allocation choices.

The American Bitcoin CEO said, “Our view of the world is simple: Bitcoin is a growing capital asset, and we believe its long-term compounded growth will exceed our cost of capital.”

What about Trump Media? It is using BTC as collateral to borrow money.

One treats it like a son; the other uses it as a tool.

Which one do you believe?

Finally, a few practical points:

The stock has fallen 95% from its peak and was forced to conduct a 1-for-15 reverse stock split to retain its Nasdaq listing.

But the market still responded with a 5% gain.

Because everyone understood:

This is not a company that is losing money.

It is a machine that continuously accumulates BTC using mining cash flow.

The accounting loss is on paper; the 8,002 BTC are real.

At the current price of approximately $63.5k each, the reserves alone are worth more than $63.5k.

Is “mining company losses under fair-value accounting” a warning sign to worry about, or a threshold that must be crossed?

My answer is the latter.

If you believe BTC will rise over the long term, then the current book loss is simply the cost of holding it.

If you don't, you should not be looking at this company in the first place.

The market has already answered that question with a 5% gain.#Gate储备金率117% #Gate资产规模位列全球Top6 #Strategy再售1637枚BTC并回购STRC $BTC $ETH

Invincible Star has launched its membership registration feature.
After registering an account, it will be more convenient to use and manage, and new users can first test the speed and stability for free.
🎁 Redemption code: WOHK 🌐 💬 #无敌星星 #Membership registration #VPN #Free trial.

9 PM Claim 550 QUID token airdrop!
243Alpha points, first come, first served
Pre-market price: 40U Hope everyone can grab it.

U.S. stock indexes are surging strongly, once again getting back on the elevator of the uptrend. The day before yesterday it was software, yesterday it was cloud, and today it’s optics again, with sector rotation happening faster than an electric fan. In this situation, the easiest trade may still be to go straight into the S&P 500 and S&P 100.

#AIW3WarmStories In a bull market, everyone is caught up in the excitement, surrounded by stories of sudden wealth and positive market news, with crowds bustling everywhere. Now that the bear market has arrived, most people have quietly left, the excitement has faded, communities have grown quiet, and so much persistence and effort seem to have suddenly become soundless. I myself have had countless moments when I wanted to give up.

Manufacturing at its strongest in four years, yet the bond market chickened out—what is the market afraid of?

Something truly surreal happened yesterday.

The U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6, its highest level since May 2022 and marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion.

The three key indicators—new orders, production, and employment—all strengthened across the board.

CME data shows the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in September has surged to 67.2%.

The data points to one clear conclusion: The economy is too hot—it is time to raise rates.

But what happened?

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell, and so did the 30-year yield.

Manufacturing data hit a four-year high, yet bond yields moved lower instead.

Tell me, does that make sense?

First, let’s discuss why the “thing that shouldn’t have happened” happened.

On Monday, Trump announced the cancellation of a military strike against Iran, and U.S.-Iran negotiations resumed. Brent crude fell 5.2% in a single day, while WTI fell 6.2%.

When oil prices fall, inflation expectations cool. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.674%, while the 30-year yield fell to 5.225%. Just last week, the 30-year yield had briefly surged to its highest level since 2007.

So the situation now is:

On one hand—the ISM data says, “The economy is too strong; rates need to go up.”

On the other hand—oil prices say, “Inflation is about to cool; don’t raise rates.”

The bond market chose to trust oil prices, not the data.

But that’s not all. There is another, more subtle force supporting the bond market.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent made a rare move last week, joining Japan to intervene in the yen exchange rate—the two countries’ first joint intervention in 15 years.

More importantly, he publicly called on the Federal Reserve to expand the size of the FIMA repo facility.

What is FIMA? Simply put, it allows Japan to use the U.S. Treasuries it holds as collateral to borrow money, rather than selling those Treasuries directly for cash.

Japan holds $1.14 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, making it the world’s largest foreign holder of U.S. debt.

If Japan were to dump U.S. Treasuries on a large scale to save the yen—wouldn’t the 30-year yield go through the roof?

Bessent’s move was about defusing the bomb in advance.

So, do you see it now?

The ISM data is shouting, “Raise rates,” while oil prices and FIMA are shouting, “Don’t let yields rise too quickly.”

The bond market is currently being pulled in three directions by three forces.

Bitcoin briefly fell to $62,250 yesterday before rebounding past $64,000.

The reason for the rebound? U.S.-Iran negotiations + the plunge in oil prices + falling U.S. Treasury yields—risk appetite briefly recovered.

But you need to understand one thing:

BTC’s pricing logic is no longer simply that of “digital gold.”

It increasingly resembles a high-beta technology stock—far more sensitive to liquidity expectations than to inflation itself.

And the current macro environment is:

Economic data supports rate hikes → expectations of tighter liquidity

Falling oil prices ease inflation → a brief window for respite

U.S.-Japan intervention supports Treasuries → long-term rates are being artificially suppressed

These three variables contradict one another, making it impossible for the market to form a unified expectation.

That is why BTC is swinging sideways between $62,000 and $65,000—it is not directionless; all the directions are fighting one another.

The ISM data tells you the economy is doing well, while the 67% rate-hike probability tells you liquidity is about to tighten.

But the bond market tells you—don’t rush; geopolitics and central-bank intervention could tear up and rewrite the script at any moment.

The current market is one where data and policy are fighting, while retail investors foot the bill.

What you need to do is not guess the direction—it is figure out who is lying, who is providing support, and who is quietly defusing the bombs.

Someone is buying BTC below $63,000. Someone is selling BTC above $65,000.

Trading sideways is the most expensive strategy, but it is still better than moving recklessly. #Gate储备金率117% #Gate资产规模位列全球Top6 #Strategy再售1637枚BTC并回购STRC $BTC $ETH $SOL

Let me talk about several spot positions I hold: 1, $BTC $ETH $CRCL Bitcoin represents the most basic respect for the risks of the crypto market and my own positions: lower volatility compared with altcoins, higher returns compared with non-cyclical assets, and the legendary steady happiness;

The first step to making money is to stop working for others
Working for others will never make you rich
As the ancients said, if you want to get rich, open a shop; to do business, travel far and wide; people must venture out, and horses must be set free.
For ordinary people like us, it is difficult to change our fate through anything other than entrepreneurship, business, or investment; the money earned working for others will never be enough to pay for what you want.

This is absolutely heartbreaking.

The Coldcard hack has now drained 2,055 $BTC ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌worth approximately $130M, from more than 7,700 addresses.

Many of those affected believed they were taking every precaution to keep their Bitcoin safe.

A reminder that security is only as strong as its weakest link.

#GateReserveRatio117%
#StrategySells1637BTCAndBuysBackSTRC
#GateStocksZeroFees

Palantir Soars 12% After Hours—What Does It Have to Do with Crypto? A Lot

Palantir reported earnings last night, with revenue surging 93% year over year and the stock briefly jumping nearly 15% after hours. The U.S. stock market exploded.

You might think: Why should I care? I don't trade U.S. stocks.

Wrong.

The earnings reports from the three companies this week—AMD, SpaceX, and Circle—are each directly rewriting the valuation logic behind your holdings.

First up is AMD, reporting after hours tonight.

The market expects Q2 revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year over year, and earnings per share of $1.05. But what really matters isn't the total—it's the data center business.

The data center segment already generated $5.8 billion in Q1, up 57% year over year. This time, the market expects data center revenue to break $6 billion. Server CPU revenue is expected to grow by more than 70%.

Why should crypto traders be watching AMD?

If demand for AI chips falls short of expectations—GPU computing rental prices loosen—the “computing cost narrative” supporting AI-themed coins will collapse outright.

Those coins you hold that rely on “AI computing power” to stay afloat will depend on whether AMD delivers tonight.

The options market shows traders are betting on a 10% move in AMD's stock after earnings. Up or down? We'll find out tonight.

Next is SpaceX, also reporting after hours tonight in its first earnings report as a public company.

The market expects revenue of $6.88 billion and a loss of $0.23 per share.

Starlink is the core business—expected to contribute $3.83 billion in revenue, accounting for the bulk. AI business revenue is expected to surge from $800 million in Q1 to nearly $2.2 billion.

But the real bombshell comes on August 6.

Up to 911.5 million insider lockup shares will be released. At the current stock price, they represent a market value of approximately $109.2 billion. The freely tradable share ratio will jump directly from around 5% to approximately 12%.

Nearly $110 billion in selling pressure.

SpaceX's stock has already fallen from its post-listing high of $225 to below $110, halving from its peak.

Musk-themed coins—DOGE and various “space-themed” tokens—will have their risk appetite determined entirely by this blow.

If the earnings are good, the unlock may be absorbed. If the earnings are bad, the unlock could trigger a stampede.

Finally, there's Circle, reporting before Wednesday's market open.

The market expects revenue of approximately $714 million and earnings per share of $0.16.

But the real core issue is this: USDC's circulating supply fell from $77 billion at the end of Q1 to approximately $73 billion at the end of Q2.

Circle's business model, put simply, is this—earning interest on USDC reserves. The larger the circulating supply and the higher the interest rate, the more it earns.

USDC is shrinking now, but interest rates have risen due to the Iran war pushing up short-term rates. With one factor down and the other up, how much can they offset each other?

Morgan Stanley directly slashed Circle's price target from $106 to $38. On the other hand, TD Cowen set its target at $82. The price targets differ by more than twofold.

Wall Street itself is already deeply divided.

Can the stablecoin business model really support a high valuation? Circle's earnings will provide the answer.

Palantir's 12% after-hours gain validated one rule—“the current quarter's numbers are merely the entry ticket; guidance is what sets the price.”

The three remaining earnings reports this week will set AI computing costs through AMD, risk appetite for Musk-themed assets through SpaceX, and stablecoin fundamentals through Circle.

You think you're watching U.S. stock earnings?

In reality, you're watching where institutional capital flows next.

Can AMD and SpaceX replicate Palantir's surge tonight?#Gate储备金率117%持续领先 #Gate资产规模位列全球Top6 #美伊举行谈判油价显著下跌 $BTC $AMD $SPCX

$PUMP is Living Up to Its Name!

The bulls are back in full force! PUMP/USDT is flexing some serious upward momentum, currently trading at $0.002228 (+4.35% today) after brushing against a peak of 0.002256.

Check out that steady climb on the 15-minute chart!

The long-term trend looks just as healthy, boasting an impressive +36.68% gain over the last 30 days with massive 24-hour volume reaching 3.06B PUMP.

Are we looking at the start of another major breakout, or are we just warming up for the next leg up?#GateReserveRatio117% #StrategySells1637BTCAndBuysBackSTRC #GateRanksTop6GlobalCEX

72-hour countdown. The bill still isn’t on the table.

August 3rd, Monday.

The Senate released this week’s agenda.

The CLARITY bill is not on it.

Instead, there’s H.R.6500—a continuing resolution that has nothing to do with crypto.

August 7th, the Senate is in recess.

Today is August 4th. With less than 72 hours left before the deadline to file a motion to terminate debate.

But the issue is—

Not even at the starting line.

You think 72 hours is long?

Come on, let me break down that inhumane Senate procedure for you:

First hurdle: To file for cloture (to end debate), you need 16 senators’ signatures.

16 people. Sounds like not many?

But this is a cloture request—which means you have to persuade 16 senators to agree, “Stop talking. Vote now.”

Second hurdle: The cloture vote requires 60 votes.

Out of 100 senators, that’s three-fifths.

Even if all Republicans vote in favor—53 seats—you still need at least 7 Democrats.

7 people.

Those 7 are what’s been blocking the bill for two months.

Third hurdle: Even if cloture passes, there’s still another 30 hours of debate.

30 hours. After the debate ends, the vote is only on whether to move into consideration—not on the bill itself.

Even if it turns green all the way, the fastest cloture vote could be on Friday (August 7).

Then what? They recess.

The bill itself? They haven’t even started considering it.

Now do you see where the problem is?

Wednesday (August 5th) is the final chance to file for cloture.

Thursday? Too late. Friday? Recess.

So—if those 16 signatures aren’t in by Wednesday, this bill doesn’t even have the chance to be voted down.

It dies in the womb.

Even more painful is the vote count.

With 53 seats in the Republican Party, even if everyone supports it, you still need 7 Democrats.

But what are Democrats arguing about?

Ethics provisions.

Specifically: Trump’s family made $1.2 billion from crypto, and Democrats say, “You made too much. We don’t believe this bill.”

Republicans are not clean either—Josh Hawley and Rand Paul have already publicly announced their opposition.

Republicans can’t even gather their own votes—so you expect them to pull in Democrats?

Both sides are acting.

Who gets hurt? You, holding positions.

How does the market see it?

On Polymarket, the probability the bill passes in 2026 is 28%.

Earlier this year, this number was 74%.

Galaxy Research—cut it straight from 50% to 30%.

Bernstein warns: If the bill is delayed, it will trigger an “anticipatory” sell-off in the crypto market.

BTC is trading in a range around $63,500 today.

But don’t let the numbers fool you—trading volume has dropped 71% overnight.

Neither bulls nor bears want to move.

Everyone is waiting for one signal: whether the bill still has a chance.

Let’s be blunt—

Last week, Grayscale was still urging the Senate to push for a vote.

The Treasury Secretary, Bessent, publicly called out.

Industry representatives have cumulatively contacted Congress more than one million times.

Does it help?

Once the Monday agenda came out—there was nothing.

A 616-page bill gets stuck on a few words.

Even if procedural votes begin this week, at most it can only leave a “lingering hope” after the Senate reconvenes in September.

Recess in September? There are still two months until the midterm elections.

By then, who will have time to manage your crypto bill?

If you’re still holding a lot of altcoins, betting that after the bill passes there will be the next wave of a pump—

You’re betting on something with a 72% probability of not happening.

Before August 5th, if those 16 signatures don’t happen—

This bill ends this year. #Gate储备金率117%持续领先 #Gate资产规模位列全球Top6 #美伊举行谈判油价显著下跌 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Stop wasting time.
Stop messing around.
Hurry up with the waterfall.
My short position in one hand (BTC and gold),
except $SPCX

Today I’m continuing to share my 2️⃣nd idea with everyone: how to make holders be willing to stick around and support a Meme as it grows?
I’ve observed for many years, and most memes have a common problem: early holders don’t have an advantage.
There’s almost no difference between what you buy today and what someone who believed in it three years ago did.
This leads to:
Everyone is looking for the next hot trend, and very few people are willing to stay and support an ecosystem’s growth.
So I designed a:

What I say goes in this regard~~~ hoping it can keep holding until the close and turn to a rise—don’t slap me in the face, hahaha~

US stocks opened lower yesterday, but then rallied strongly—really impressive. However, this morning the moment things got going, the “Korean dad” quickly dropped some inside intel on them. The market opened higher and then turned lower, though the downturn has eased a bit now. Let’s wait and see—if Korean stocks can also flip back to rising, then that would be the best possible outcome!

Gate’s latest issue data shows the overall reserve coverage ratio is still 117%, and the stablecoin reserve ratio is 118.97%.
I also took a closer look at the reserves for BTC and ETH.
BTC user assets are about 21,557 coins, and the platform reserves are 26,775 coins—excess of about 24%; ETH user assets are about 370,000 coins, and the platform reserves have already reached 456.8k coins—excess of about 22%.
BTC and ETH are the most core assets for everyone, and the reserve size continues to grow, which shows the platform is not only aiming to “just cover,” but has been keeping ample redundancy. On the other hand, users are willing to continue placing BTC and ETH on the platform as well, which in itself is a form of long-term trust. When a platform is willing to disclose its data and let everyone verify it, that is what makes it convincing for users.
When a platform is willing to disclose its data and let everyone verify it, that is what makes it convincing for users.
So now I always look more closely at the reserve reports; only then do I know which exchange is better prepared.