Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Iran puts forward an agreement with one hand and drafts legislation with the other—the market is watching “whether it gets signed,” while smart money is watching “whether it can be implemented after it is signed”

On August 5, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said:

“The agreement between Iran and Oman on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing finalization.”

The coordinates of the new route have already been determined. Both the northern and southern routes will be closed. The strait is expected to reopen to navigation in 2 to 4 months. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson also said that the joint statement between the two countries has entered the final review stage.

The whole world breathed a sigh of relief—oil prices were going to fall, inflation was going to decline, and U.S. stocks were going to rise.

Then came the next day.

On August 6, Salimi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s presiding board, publicly released a preliminary draft of a bill.

Its content: ships from the United States, Israel, and other hostile countries would be prohibited from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Violators would face a fine of up to **20% of the cargo’s value**.

People in the same camp issued completely different statements one after another.

This is Iran’s dual-track strategy—

The agreement is for the world to see.

The proposed new route between Iran and Oman would give Iran control over ships entering the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. This has never happened in the past 60 years. It is viewed as “one of the biggest concessions the Middle East has made to Iran to date.”

Iran holds up the agreement and tells the world: I can cooperate.

The bill is for the United States to see.

The parliamentary draft bans U.S. and Israeli ships from passing through and prohibits Israel-linked cargo from transiting the area. Any country that has “caused harm to Iran” would be denied navigation permits.

Iran holds up the bill and tells the United States: if you do not give me what I want, the law will take effect.

The market has already answered with prices.

Brent crude fell to $79.36 on August 4 amid expectations of a ceasefire and the resumption of navigation. By August 7, it had recovered to $83.48 due to disputes over the conditions for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and security incidents. It rose more than 4% in a single day.

Bitcoin fell toward $64k intraday, down more than 1% from the day’s high. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower for the first time this week.

“The agreement is about to be signed”—oil prices fall. “The bill is about to pass”—oil prices rise.

The market is being led around by the nose by Iran, slapped back and forth.

But the truly fatal question is not yet “whether it gets signed.”

It is “whether it can be implemented after it is signed.”

The shipping industry has already issued a stern warning.

What is the problem?

The United States has already sanctioned Iran’s newly established “Persian Gulf Strait Administration.” Any payment made to the agency could result in the payer’s assets being frozen.

At the same time, the Lloyd’s Market Association has introduced a clause stipulating that if a vessel pays a transit fee for the Strait of Hormuz, its insurance will be terminated.

Do not pay—Iran will not let it pass. Pay—the payer’s assets may be frozen by the United States, and insurers will cancel the policy.

Shipping companies are caught in a dilemma.

Here is the painful truth:

Iran puts forward an agreement with one hand and drafts legislation with the other.

The market is watching “whether it gets signed.” Smart money is watching “whether it can be implemented after it is signed.”

The agreement is diplomatic rhetoric. The bill is a bargaining chip. Implementation is where the real money is.

Next, watch three things:

👉 Will the United States lift the blockade on Iranian ports?

👉 Will shipping companies choose to “pay Iran” or “listen to the United States”?

👉 Will the insurance terms loosen?

The answers to these three questions matter more than any statement that an “agreement is nearing completion.”

An agreement can be repudiated after it is signed. A bill can be amended after it passes. But whether oil tankers can actually pass through the strait—that is where the real money is.#MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 $BTC $BZ $CL

A lovely little surprise this morning—received CoinAnk’s first autumn milk tea 🥤 I’ve been using this tool for quite a while, and now I can’t do my daily checks of US stock market quotes without it. Whether it’s detailed asset liquidation data or overall fund flows, everything is clear at a glance, making it easy and reassuring to use.

During Bitcoin’s rebound from $60,000 to $83k, I said that $HYPE was leading Bitcoin’s transition from a bear market to a bull market. In plain English, Bitcoin is currently in the process of bottoming out in a bear market, while HYPE is undergoing a correction within a bull market. Technical analysis: 1. Since 2026, HYPE has formed a five-wave upward impulse from the bottom and is currently undergoing a correction of this rise;

A 14% drop on Wednesday was called an “earnings disaster,” while a 6% rise on Thursday was called “all the bad news being priced in”—the same SpaceX, but two different groups at work

On Wednesday night, you saw SpaceX’s first earnings report—

Revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and exceeding market expectations.

Net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $540 million.

But AI capital expenditures surged 550% year over year to $18.37 billion, nearly 40% above analysts’ expectations.

The stock plunged directly after hours, falling 14% the next day.

The market’s verdict was: “It’s burning money too aggressively and doesn’t deserve this valuation.”

On Thursday, 911.5 million locked-up shares were unlocked.

What does that mean? Tradable shares surged from 639 million to 1.55 billion, creating nearly $100 billion in potential selling pressure.

The media was flooded with headlines—“A $200M Unlock Flood Is Coming,” “SpaceX’s Most Dangerous Day.”

And then?

The stock rose 6.14% to close at $114.92. Full-day trading volume reached 255 million shares, the highest in a month and a half.

The same company that fell 14% on Wednesday rose 6% on Thursday.

What exactly happened?

First, Wednesday’s 14% plunge was itself the “unlock.”

Two hundred million shares traded in a single day, already flushing out everyone who wanted to run. Market participants had figured it out long ago—the shorts weren’t betting on a collapse in fundamentals; they were betting on insiders selling heavily after the unlock.

But insiders barely sold, leaving the shorts stunned.

Second, short positioning was too crowded, and a short squeeze was ready to erupt.

As of Wednesday’s close, short positions accounted for 36% of the float, with more than $9 billion in unrealized profits.

When the market didn’t fall at Thursday’s open, were the shorts panicking? Of course. Covering means buying, and buying pushes the stock price higher.

Third, Wall Street is voting with real money.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its $300 price target, while JPMorgan raised its target from $225 to $240. At least six brokerages maintained buy ratings.

The Morgan Stanley analyst’s exact words were: “SpaceX is a rare generational compounder.”

Even the options market is betting that the bottom is in—one institutional trader sold $90 puts while buying $220 calls, betting that over the next ten months the stock will not fall 20% and may even double.

But don’t celebrate too soon.

This is not the end.

SpaceX has adopted a nine-stage staggered unlock mechanism. August was only the first wave, with multiple additional batches of shares to be unlocked over time.

The biggest landmine comes in June 2027—6.4 billion shares held by Musk will be unlocked then.

The stock is still below its $135 IPO offering price.

The fact that the unlock did not trigger a decline does not mean it won’t fall later. The supply shock has merely been delayed, not eliminated.

To be frank—

Are the people who criticized AI spending on Wednesday the same people who shouted “all the bad news is priced in” on Thursday?

No.

Short-term capital sold on Wednesday, while long-term believers bought on Thursday.

Retail investors made net purchases of $22.7 million during the first hour of Wednesday’s plunge—in their eyes, aggressive investment in AI is not negative news but a signal that the probability of becoming a long-term winner is rising.

Institutions became cautious because of the surge in capital expenditures, while retail investors viewed heavy investment as the upfront cost of future dominance.

The same earnings report, interpreted in two different ways.

How should SPCX be viewed from here?

In the short term, the negative impact of the unlock has temporarily landed, and relatively strong marginal buying support emerged around $105–$110.

But over the long term, three things will truly determine the stock price:

Whether Starlink can continue generating cash—Starlink revenue was $4.3 billion in the second quarter, making it the only profitable segment, while its user base doubled to 12 million.

Whether AI investment can be converted into revenue—AI business revenue surged 247% year over year to $2.56 billion, but it is still losing $1.26 billion. More than half of Morgan Stanley’s price target comes from its valuation of the AI business.

Whether Starship can progress on schedule—the space business is still losing $540 million, while R&D investment continues to rise.

You panicked during Wednesday’s 14% plunge and experienced FOMO during Thursday’s 6% rise. But the people who truly make money are those who see signals of a bottom during panic and identify the location of the next landmine during the celebration.#MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 $BTC $ETH $SPCX

Life is impossible to predict
Li Yapeng had been surrounded by negativity for so many years; it felt like there was no hope for him in this lifetime
Then the hospital owed him rent and was forced to relocate, and that’s how he turned things around
And it was a complete turnaround
Han Hong had done charity work for so many years, and her reputation was untouchable
Just one “go through the motions,” and she is now being attacked from all sides
You could calculate your fate ten thousand times and still never see life’s twists and turns coming

$MSX launched yesterday. Since I’m the kind of person who’s relatively slow to react in the moment, my personal trading habit is to first watch when a new coin launches; with a platform token like this, I’m neither afraid of it being pumped nor dumped—I’m only afraid of there being no reaction. I looked at the market and browsed X yesterday, and it was pretty good—the reaction was quite strong. A strong reaction is a good thing, as it shows there’s interest. Remember the two points mentioned in the quote: 1. Born in a crypto bear market; 2. A strong market-maker coin.

If you’re currently long on $take , this volatile coin
please be careful
Don’t just look at its gains over the past few days
Remember, this project was suddenly dumped when it was previously at a high
The same thing
could very well happen again!

The market is losing confidence in the CLARITY Act passing this year.
Polymarket odds have dropped to just 15%, showing traders now expect more political delays than progress.
GM.

The Hyperliquid development team HyperLabs' address received the 433k HYPE ($24.25 million) redeemed from staking one week ago early yesterday morning.
Early this morning, the 433k redeemed HYPE was distributed and transferred to 9 wallets.
Based on previous unstaking transfer records, these HYPE tokens are expected to flow into CEXs through market maker Flowdesk.
Address:

The zeroed-out coins I’ve bought over the years wouldn’t even fit on two pages. These coins once carried my dreams of getting rich overnight, but looking back now, I’ve forgotten when I bought most of them. The only one I remember is LUNC: I bought it after it dropped 10x, hoping to catch a rebound, but it ended up dropping another 100x.🥲🥲

Gold explodes, BTC plays dead: Why did the same macro script produce two different shows?

The moment the ADP data came out, gold went wild.

On August 5, spot gold surged rapidly, with its intraday gain reaching 4.48% at one point and breaking through the 4100 and 4200 levels in succession. On August 6, it continued higher, reclaiming $4300 and hitting a new seven-week high.

The market is betting real money on one thing: weak employment → cooling rate hike expectations → bullish for non-yielding assets.

The logic is sound, and the script is clear.

What about BTC?

It hasn't budged, still stuck around $64k.

On August 7, Bitcoin fell toward $64k intraday, down more than 1% from the daily high. ETH fell below $1900, while total market capitalization stood at $2.285 trillion, down 0.3% over 24 hours.

The macro script is the same, yet gold went on a major bull run while BTC remained range-bound.

Why?

Some say: Because the employment data wasn't that bad.

Indeed. ADP came in at just 44k, far below the expected 75k. But initial jobless claims remained below 200k for the third consecutive week, at just 199k. The labor market is weak, but it isn't collapsing.

Some say: Because the Federal Reserve remains hawkish.

That's also true. CME data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September is still around 55%. Fed Governor Cook said she is prepared to take policy action if she does not see inflation continuing to cool.

Bullish and bearish factors are offsetting each other, leaving BTC without direction.

But that's only the surface.

The real reason is hidden in three disconnects.

Disconnect one: The Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days.

From May 19 until now, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative territory for 80 consecutive days, setting the longest consecutive negative streak since the indicator was launched.

What does that mean?

U.S. institutions are selling, while Asia is buying. One is dumping, the other is absorbing the selling pressure.

Net result = no result.

Disconnect two: ETF buying has arrived, but it hasn't pushed prices higher.

On August 3, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs recovered to $170 million. On August 6, single-day net inflows reached $243 million, with cumulative net inflows over seven days totaling $582 million.

The money came in, but the price didn't move.

Because ETF marginal buyers aren't true “all-the-way bulls”—they are arbitrageurs, short-term traders, and people who rush in when they see a premium, take their profits, and leave. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounts for more than 60%, making market concentration dangerously high.

Disconnect three: Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve.

Three people want a rate hike, while three want to wait and see. Rate cut expectations versus rate hike risks are offsetting each other.

Cook said she was prepared to raise rates, while Williams said he might support a hike if necessary. On the other side, the ADP data is supplying ammunition to the rate-cut camp.

The market is being pulled between two directions, while BTC is being ground flat between two expectations.

The wind has started blowing.

Rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and risk-aversion sentiment—all are in place.

But BTC's sails have yet to be unfurled.

$65k is the signal to “set sail.”

A high-volume move above $65k would show that the macro logic has finally transmitted into the crypto market.

If it cannot break above it, BTC will continue grinding away in the script of good news that has already been priced in.#MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #Gate首发上线10只A股合约 #CLARITY法案投票窗口即将关闭 $BTC $ETH $XAU

$SPCX , what happened to the promised unlock crash below 100? How is it up 6% instead?!
These shareholders are really greedy—surely they’re not planning to wait until 10 trillion to sell?!

$RIVER Did it hear me calling out these past few days?
It’s actually starting to pump. Did it realize that 2.3U was indeed too low?
That’s equivalent to a 36% increase.
Should I chase the pump?
@River4fun @RiverdotInc

Registration link:

What is the biggest barrier to making money in U.S. stocks? Most people would say stock selection and market timing. But sometimes I find that what really holds people back is whether their funds can arrive quickly. Your analysis can be completely right, but funding takes five days; major news breaks after hours, but your broker only supports regular trading hours; you have U on hand, but your funds must pass through three hurdles—currency conversion, remittance, and settlement. They are all the same kind of problem: the speed at which funds reach the market cannot keep up with the speed of the market.

$FLOW ‌ (1H)

Bias: 🟢 Bullish

FLOW is holding a clean uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Price is trading above the Supertrend, showing buyers still have control. The only thing to watch is the 0.02838 resistance, where some profit-taking could kick in.

Entry: 0.02710–0.02730 (ideal)
SL: 0.02670
TP1: 0.02840
TP2: 0.02920
TP3: 0.03000

My take: I wouldn't chase the current green candle. A small pullback into the entry zone offers a much cleaner risk-to-reward setup. As long as FLOW stays above 0.0270, the bullish structure remains intact.

#MoonshotAIPreIPOsOpen #GateLaunches10AShareContracts

Western Digital says AI storage should not bet entirely on flash? Flash handles the present, while HDD handles the entire lifecycle? The bigger AI gets, the more cold data there is, and the stronger demand for HDD becomes instead? The previous post discussed Roundhill betting on optical communications, wagering that the bottleneck in AI infrastructure would move further down the stack. This one says that storage itself is also becoming differentiated internally. Western Digital’s chief product officer published a lengthy article, with the core view that AI storage should not bet entirely on flash. He sees AI

After launching DRAM, the ETF that became the fastest in history to surpass $10 billion is making another move today! This time, it is betting on optical communications and optoelectronics! Why optical communications, and why now?
The name Roundhill should sound familiar. In April, it launched a storage ETF, ticker DRAM, which quickly surpassed $10 billion in assets after listing—the first in financial history.
After the adjustment, its assets still stand at nearly $25 billion. 70% of its holdings are concentrated in HBM.

$WDC pre-market -20, now -10; $SNDK pre-market -10, now -5. Intel is fluctuating around 100 within a 5% range; the battle between bulls and bears is really intense! My previous view has consistently been that the rebound is not over, but the slight change in my view today is that Western Digital hit a new low, so I want to be a bit more cautious.

Excited to announce my partnership with @Gate 🤝
To start this collaboration, my community can trade selected U.S. stocks on Gate with 0% commission during the campaign period.
Complete KYC, reach 1,000 USDT in cumulative stock trading volume, and receive a 5 USDT cash voucher.
Campaign period: July 31 – August 31, 2026 Rewards are limited to the first 50 eligible participants.
Join through my exclusive referral link:
I’m looking forward to creating useful content, exploring Gate’s stock products, and bringing more opportunities to my community through this partnership.
Always review the full campaign terms before participating.