ETH at $2,400, upgrade delayed—can you still hold?
Everyone waited three months for the Glamsterdam upgrade, and now it’s been postponed. The reason: “13 contract risks were discovered.” ETH keeps rubbing up against the $2,400 level, ETFs saw $1 billion flow out in a month—but just as everyone was getting ready to sell at a loss, staking quietly hit a new all-time high. Is this the final shakeout before the good news is fully priced in, or the start of an accelerated bear-market decline?
First, the surface picture: bad news is hitting, but the price hasn’t collapsed.
ETH is trading between $2,380 and $2,405, so the $2,400 you’re seeing is basically the live price. It’s fallen from $2,500, and the overall trend has been weak over the past 30 days. It’s still nowhere near its August 2025 ATH of $4,950. The daily RSI is at 40, neutral to weak, not oversold. Price is below the short-term moving averages, and the 4-hour chart is bearish, but the daily chart shows signs of support around the 100-day EMA at $2,355–$2,362. All the indicators are saying one thing: the direction isn’t clear yet, so don’t rush to place a bet.
But wait.
Are you sure the upgrade delay is just a “technical issue”? Are you sure ETF outflows mean “institutions aren’t bullish”?
First: Is the upgrade delay bearish, or is it “risk removal”?
Glamsterdam, originally scheduled to activate on the Hoodi testnet on October 26, was halted by groups including ChainSecurity—the gas rule changes in EIP-8037/8038 could affect at least 13 real smart contracts. There’s no new date, and the early-December mainnet schedule is also in jeopardy.
Sounds scary?
But look at it another way: if they pushed ahead with vulnerabilities, it wouldn’t just be the price that blew up—it would be trust in the entire ecosystem.
The upgrade can be delayed, but your principal won’t wait for you. What the market fears most isn’t bad news; it’s not knowing when the next piece of bad news will come.
The delay is clearly bearish for upgrade expectations in the short term. But the “find a problem → delay → fix it” process shows that Ethereum’s core developers aren’t an amateur outfit making decisions on a whim.
Second: ETFs are selling, but staking is quietly hitting new all-time highs
U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $1 billion in October, one of the largest this year. Leading products such as IBIT are seeing outflows, and institutions are cautious in the short term. That’s the most direct reason for the price pressure.
But on the other hand—
About 43.8 million ETH is staked, representing 35.9% of the circulating supply, with net inflows for multiple consecutive quarters. BitMine continues to accumulate and stake, with total holdings of about 6 million ETH, close to its target of 5% of supply.
In plain English:
ETFs are selling, but corporate treasuries are buying, and locking their purchases into staking rather than selling.
The yield has fallen to 2.63%, which is indeed low. But think about it—
With Fed rates at 3.75%–4.00% and 10-year Treasury yields at 5%+, people are still willing to lock up ETH for a 2.63% yield. What does that tell you?
It means they’re betting not on the yield, but on ETH’s future price.
Retail traders are staring at the charts and cursing, while institutions quietly lock up supply. I don’t need to tell you who understands this market better.
Third: The macro backdrop is the biggest threat hanging over the market
September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, above expectations, with core inflation also elevated. The Fed raised rates in September, bringing them to 3.75%–4.00%, and 10-year Treasury yields are at 5.0%–5.13%.
High real yields = risk-free returns outperforming every risky asset.
How are institutions supposed to choose? Buy Treasuries and lock in 5%, or buy ETH and bet on a double?
More importantly, the FOMC meeting is on October 27–28.
The market is leaning toward rates being held steady, but the risk of further hikes or rates staying high remains. Geopolitics in the Middle East, oil prices, fluctuations in AI capital spending, and the link between stocks and crypto—all mean that as a high-beta asset, ETH falls harder than BTC when macro conditions tighten.
Key levels
Resistance above: $2,420–$2,440 → $2,480–$2,500 (20/50-day EMAs converge; a make-or-break level for bulls) → $2,520
Support below: $2,355–$2,380 (100-day EMA) → $2,320–$2,350 → $2,200–$2,300 (demand zone)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If volume-backed consolidation, a hammer, or an engulfing signal appears around $2,350–$2,380, go long with a small position, target $2,420–$2,450, stop below $2,350, and aim for a risk/reward ratio above 1.5.
If a bounce to $2,440–$2,480 meets resistance (especially at the EMAs), go short with a small position, target a retest of $2,350–$2,380, and stop above $2,500.
Don’t guess the direction in the middle around $2,400. Wait for a high-volume breakout above $2,480 before chasing, or short after a break below $2,320.
Swing traders:
This isn’t the time to take a large directional position. Macro uncertainty and the upgrade delay are weighing on sentiment. Wait for the FOMC decision, a confirmed new upgrade date, or three consecutive days of ETF net inflows before considering adding to your position. The medium-term fundamentals (high staking and institutional accumulation) provide support, but a bullish trend needs a catalyst.
Long-term believers:
The $2,200–$2,300 range is a good area for dollar-cost averaging. With 35.9% of supply locked in staking, the supply-side selling pressure is easing. But don’t expect a V-shaped reversal—it’ll be a slow recovery, not a raging bull market.
ETH right now is like October 2023—
Everyone was saying, “ETH is trash; it can’t outperform BTC,” ETFs hadn’t arrived, there was no sign of an upgrade, and the price was flat.
And then?
Six months later, the ETFs were approved, and ETH shot straight from $2,000 to $4,000.
In a bear market, the three most expensive words aren’t “I sold at a loss,” but “wait for the upgrade.” Because the upgrade will come, but your principal might not survive the wait.
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