BTC at $77k—did you miss the move?
Look at the surface first: up 23% in a week, its biggest weekly gain in recent years.
Breaking violently out of the $64k range, it successively broke through the key resistances at $70K, $74K, and $75K. Short liquidations exceeded $4 billion, while daily BTC short liquidations often surpassed $1 billion. Daily RSI surged to 80–85, indicating severe overbought conditions, and the price has moved far away from all moving averages. The rally is accelerating toward a top, and a pullback is imminent.
First: The Treasury is handing out money, while you are panicking.
The U.S. Treasury announced that the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks would at least double, from a maximum of $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 through early November, lowering long-term yields and easing liquidity pressure.
The market interprets this as a “quasi-Operation Twist”—effectively, the Federal Reserve is not cutting rates, while the Treasury is stepping in to inject liquidity itself.
The dollar weakened, gold surged, and BTC took off directly.
Second: Shorts have lost $4 billion, and you are still shorting?
Over the past week, short liquidations across the entire market exceeded $4 billion. Daily BTC short liquidations often reached over $1 billion.
The corpses of shorts have paved a road upward: from $64K to $77K, every short seller has added fuel to the rocket.
The positive feedback loop of a short squeeze: price rises → shorts are liquidated → they are forced to buy back to close positions → price rises further → more shorts are liquidated.
This is the most brutal form of wealth transfer in the market—taking money from shorts and stuffing it directly into the pockets of longs.
Third: A signal has appeared on the technical chart that must be watched carefully.
A 23% weekly gain has put all EMAs into bullish alignment, while daily RSI has climbed above 80–85, indicating severe overbought conditions. MACD has formed a strong golden cross, but the histogram may be showing signs of weakening.
With consolidation around $77k and thin weekend liquidity, a false breakout or a rapid wick is likely.
Those who have not entered should wait for a pullback; those already in should not get greedy.
The trend is bullish, but the overbought condition is also real.
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
Treasury buybacks doubling, with liquidity support underway
Consistent large ETF inflows, with BlackRock leading accumulation
Over $4 billion in short liquidations, with positive buying feedback continuing
Trump supporting the CLARITY Act, with the regulatory environment warming
On the other side:
Daily RSI at 80–85, indicating severe overbought conditions
Thin weekend liquidity, making rapid wicks likely
Price far above all moving averages, with an extremely high deviation
Jackson Hole (August 27–29) may trigger volatility
Key levels
Resistance above: $78,000–$80,000 → $82,000–$85,000
Support below: $76,500–$77,000 → $75k → $72,000–$73,000
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Test longs with a small position, with a stop-loss below $74,800. Take half off at $78,500–$80,000 and exit fully above $82,000.
For swing traders:
Wait for a pullback to $72,000–$75,000 to stabilize before taking a heavy position (daily EMA confirmation + declining volume), targeting $80,000–$85,000.
Short positions:
Only cautiously test shorts with a small position if clear bearish divergence, long upper wicks, and an extremely positive funding rate appear at $79,000–$80,000, with a stop-loss at $81,000.
Core risk management:
Leverage ≤5–10x (with low weekend liquidity, 3–5x is safer)
Risk per trade ≤1–3% of the account
Monitor the funding rate (a positive bias indicates crowded longs and high holding costs)
If $75,000 breaks on heavy volume, switch to observation mode
You missed BTC at $77K. Now you have two choices:
A. Chase the rally out of FOMO, then get trapped at a short-term top
B. Wait for a pullback to confirm support and enter at the right level
Over the past week, your mistake was not failing to buy BTC.
It was having a strategy that could not match your ambition.
$77,000 is not the end, and $80,000 is not either.
But if you want to survive in this market, be timid when chasing strength and be aggressive when buying dips.
At $77,000, do you dare get on board?
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