Last week, Bitcoin posted five consecutive bullish candles, surging from $62k all the way to $79k, up more than 23% for the week. Spot gold climbed above $4,600, hitting a three-month high. And then? A flash crash on Saturday liquidated 179.2k traders, wiping out $882 million. Long positions accounted for 80%.
Why?
The aftershocks of the nonfarm payrolls report have yet to fade, and geopolitical conflicts have taken over.
U.S. nonfarm employment fell by 23k in July, while the May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103k. The labor market is cooling. But what about inflation? July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, while the energy index surged 14.7%.
Weak employment + high inflation = the Fed’s biggest headache.
The July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged by a 9:3 vote, with three officials wanting to raise rates. The probability of a September rate hike fell from 70% to 40%, but the shadow of “higher rates for longer” remains.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly climbed to its highest level since 2007.
Borrowing is getting more expensive, while inflation is still not coming down.
Then Trump announced “the most devastating economic action in history” against Iran, which Treasury Secretary Bessent called an “economic Normandy landing.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the “toughest-ever” sanctions on Iran, directly targeting efforts to “bring down the Iranian regime.”
Iran’s response? “Any country participating in the sanctions will be considered to have declared war on Iran.” It also threatened that if the economic war continued, not a single drop of oil would pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping data showed that only five vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on August 15, compared with more than 130 vessels per day before the conflict.
Brent crude rose 6.4% last week, closing at $94.39 per barrel. It briefly touched $94.81 intraday. The diesel crack spread broke above $100 per barrel—the cost of transportation is rising, meaning inflation could climb even higher.
Bessent is set to officially announce the sanction details at 2 p.m. today (6 p.m. Beijing time).
Gold has already climbed above $4,600, a three-month high. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 4.7%. What about Bitcoin? It fell below $76,000 yesterday. Over the weekend, it briefly plunged from $77k to around $75.8k.
So what should we do this week? Two scenario plans—compare them yourself.
Scenario A: Mild sanctions, oil prices retreat, BTC rebounds (approximately 40% probability)
If Bessent’s sanctions are merely “more of the same”—with no secondary sanctions and no direct targeting of China, Iran’s largest buyer accounting for more than 80% of its oil exports—oil prices will most likely spike and then retreat.
Brent will fall back from around $93. Inflation expectations will cool. Treasury yields will stabilize.
BTC could see a short-term rebound. After all, Bitcoin surged from $63k to $77k, and a short squeeze at one point wiped out billions of dollars in short positions. If the geopolitical premium fades, bulls may retake the $77,000-$79,000 range.
Strategy: Take a small position to trade the rebound and watch for support confirmation around $76,000. If it breaks above $77,000, cautiously try a long position, with a stop-loss at $74,500.
Scenario B: Sanctions escalate, shipping remains restricted, BTC undergoes a deep correction (approximately 60% probability)
If the sanctions involve secondary sanctions—punishing foreign entities that conduct transactions with Iran—or explicitly target China.
If shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue or expand.
If oil prices break above their previous high, sending Brent above $100.
Then inflation expectations will surge again. Treasury yields will continue rising. Expectations of a Fed rate hike will return.
As a risk asset, Bitcoin could face a deep 5%-8% correction. If $76,000 fails to hold, the next support is at $72,500. Below that comes the psychological threshold of $70,000.
But this would be a highly attractive “panic-buying opportunity” for the medium to long term.
Why? Because Bitcoin is gaining a new form of “geopolitical utility.” Iran has already launched a Bitcoin-settled maritime insurance platform called “Hormuz Safe.” For Iran, which has long been excluded from the SWIFT system, Bitcoin is a financial lifeline.
A risk asset in the short term, a censorship-resistant asset in the long term.
The more intense the geopolitical conflict, the stronger this narrative becomes.
Short-term traders: Watch how much BTC falls each time oil prices surge sharply. If there is “falling with oil but not rising with it”—oil rises while BTC does not follow, and oil falls while BTC plunges—then short-term weakness is confirmed. Keep your hands off and do not buy the dip.
Medium- and long-term holders: Treat this geopolitical shock as a “stress test.” Gradually build positions when the market mistakenly sells off amid inflation panic. Around $72,500 is the first level, while below $70,000 is a golden opportunity.
The “tail risk” of geopolitical events is enormous. The content of Bessent’s press conference today could send oil prices soaring 5% instantly, or send them plunging 3%. You cannot predict it.
Controlling position size is more important than predicting direction.
Keep cash on hand and wait for panic. Buy during panic and sell during greed. Ninety-nine percent of people cannot follow this old saying, but those who do take 99% of the profits.
The Jackson Hole global central bank symposium is also scheduled for this week (August 27-29), where Fed Chair Walsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office. PCE inflation data will also be released.
Nonfarm payrolls, geopolitics, inflation, and central banks—four cards being played at once mean this week is bound to be anything but calm.#ETH突破2400美元 #GateBTC现货交易全网第二 $BTC $XAU $CL
Why?
The aftershocks of the nonfarm payrolls report have yet to fade, and geopolitical conflicts have taken over.
U.S. nonfarm employment fell by 23k in July, while the May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103k. The labor market is cooling. But what about inflation? July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, while the energy index surged 14.7%.
Weak employment + high inflation = the Fed’s biggest headache.
The July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged by a 9:3 vote, with three officials wanting to raise rates. The probability of a September rate hike fell from 70% to 40%, but the shadow of “higher rates for longer” remains.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly climbed to its highest level since 2007.
Borrowing is getting more expensive, while inflation is still not coming down.
Then Trump announced “the most devastating economic action in history” against Iran, which Treasury Secretary Bessent called an “economic Normandy landing.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the “toughest-ever” sanctions on Iran, directly targeting efforts to “bring down the Iranian regime.”
Iran’s response? “Any country participating in the sanctions will be considered to have declared war on Iran.” It also threatened that if the economic war continued, not a single drop of oil would pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping data showed that only five vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on August 15, compared with more than 130 vessels per day before the conflict.
Brent crude rose 6.4% last week, closing at $94.39 per barrel. It briefly touched $94.81 intraday. The diesel crack spread broke above $100 per barrel—the cost of transportation is rising, meaning inflation could climb even higher.
Bessent is set to officially announce the sanction details at 2 p.m. today (6 p.m. Beijing time).
Gold has already climbed above $4,600, a three-month high. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 4.7%. What about Bitcoin? It fell below $76,000 yesterday. Over the weekend, it briefly plunged from $77k to around $75.8k.
So what should we do this week? Two scenario plans—compare them yourself.
Scenario A: Mild sanctions, oil prices retreat, BTC rebounds (approximately 40% probability)
If Bessent’s sanctions are merely “more of the same”—with no secondary sanctions and no direct targeting of China, Iran’s largest buyer accounting for more than 80% of its oil exports—oil prices will most likely spike and then retreat.
Brent will fall back from around $93. Inflation expectations will cool. Treasury yields will stabilize.
BTC could see a short-term rebound. After all, Bitcoin surged from $63k to $77k, and a short squeeze at one point wiped out billions of dollars in short positions. If the geopolitical premium fades, bulls may retake the $77,000-$79,000 range.
Strategy: Take a small position to trade the rebound and watch for support confirmation around $76,000. If it breaks above $77,000, cautiously try a long position, with a stop-loss at $74,500.
Scenario B: Sanctions escalate, shipping remains restricted, BTC undergoes a deep correction (approximately 60% probability)
If the sanctions involve secondary sanctions—punishing foreign entities that conduct transactions with Iran—or explicitly target China.
If shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz continue or expand.
If oil prices break above their previous high, sending Brent above $100.
Then inflation expectations will surge again. Treasury yields will continue rising. Expectations of a Fed rate hike will return.
As a risk asset, Bitcoin could face a deep 5%-8% correction. If $76,000 fails to hold, the next support is at $72,500. Below that comes the psychological threshold of $70,000.
But this would be a highly attractive “panic-buying opportunity” for the medium to long term.
Why? Because Bitcoin is gaining a new form of “geopolitical utility.” Iran has already launched a Bitcoin-settled maritime insurance platform called “Hormuz Safe.” For Iran, which has long been excluded from the SWIFT system, Bitcoin is a financial lifeline.
A risk asset in the short term, a censorship-resistant asset in the long term.
The more intense the geopolitical conflict, the stronger this narrative becomes.
Short-term traders: Watch how much BTC falls each time oil prices surge sharply. If there is “falling with oil but not rising with it”—oil rises while BTC does not follow, and oil falls while BTC plunges—then short-term weakness is confirmed. Keep your hands off and do not buy the dip.
Medium- and long-term holders: Treat this geopolitical shock as a “stress test.” Gradually build positions when the market mistakenly sells off amid inflation panic. Around $72,500 is the first level, while below $70,000 is a golden opportunity.
The “tail risk” of geopolitical events is enormous. The content of Bessent’s press conference today could send oil prices soaring 5% instantly, or send them plunging 3%. You cannot predict it.
Controlling position size is more important than predicting direction.
Keep cash on hand and wait for panic. Buy during panic and sell during greed. Ninety-nine percent of people cannot follow this old saying, but those who do take 99% of the profits.
The Jackson Hole global central bank symposium is also scheduled for this week (August 27-29), where Fed Chair Walsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office. PCE inflation data will also be released.
Nonfarm payrolls, geopolitics, inflation, and central banks—four cards being played at once mean this week is bound to be anything but calm.#ETH突破2400美元 #GateBTC现货交易全网第二 $BTC $XAU $CL
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