Gold at $4,670—what are you waiting for?
Look at the surface first: gold bounced from around $4,000, its July low, to $4,670, gaining 17% in two months.
Spot gold broke through $4,670 per ounce, up 1.43% intraday; New York gold futures broke through $4,700 in one move. It rose approximately 6-7% for the week and approximately 15% for the month, reaching a more-than-three-month high. In less than a week, gold successively broke through the $4,500 and $4,600 levels. The candlesticks are telling you: this is not a rebound—it is a trend reversal.
First: confidence in the U.S. dollar is collapsing, yet you are still watching CPI.
The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly announced last week that it would at least double the scale of its long-term Treasury buybacks.
Do you understand? Even the U.S. government is worried that its Treasuries cannot be sold, so it has started buying them back itself.
What was the result? The U.S. Dollar Index plunged, while gold surged more than 5% in a single week. More importantly, after briefly retreating, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield quickly rebounded back to 4.7%, reflecting continued heavy selling pressure on Treasuries as the debt ceiling draws near.
Nobody wants U.S. Treasuries, the dollar is losing value, and gold has become the only safe haven.
Second: Goldman Sachs changed its tune, saying “$4,900 is too conservative.”
Goldman Sachs previously forecast gold at $4,900 by the end of 2026, but has now changed its stance—the original target already appears conservative. Why?
Because gold has entered a “mechanical acceleration zone.” A “Gamma squeeze” has emerged in the options market: investors are frantically buying call options, forcing market makers to add hedges as gold rises, creating a self-reinforcing cycle in which “the higher the price, the heavier the buying.”
Third: two nuclear-level events will erupt this week.
The first: July PCE inflation data (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) is about to be released. The market expects core PCE to remain at 3.3% year over year. If the data comes in soft, rate-cut expectations will heat up and gold could take off.
The second: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first major speech at Jackson Hole (10:00 p.m. Beijing time on August 28). The market is paying extremely close attention to his policy signals.
You can judge the bull-bear battle for yourself
On one side:
Confidence in the dollar is collapsing, and the Treasury is buying back its own debt
Central banks around the world are aggressively buying gold, while China has increased its holdings for 21 consecutive months
Goldman Sachs changed its stance, saying $4,900 is “too conservative,” while institutional long positions account for 60%
The SPDR Gold ETF added nearly 50 tons in one month
On the other side:
RSI has entered overbought territory, creating a risk of a short-term pullback
If PCE comes in hot or Warsh takes a hawkish stance, profit-taking could be triggered
$4,670-$4,700 is a strong resistance zone, with three failed attempts to break through
Key levels
Resistance above: $4,700 → $4,720-$4,750 → $4,800 → $4,900-$5,000
Support below: $4,620-$4,600 → $4,550-$4,570 → $4,500
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Buy in batches on a pullback to $4,600-$4,620, with a stop-loss at $4,550 and a target of $4,720-$4,750. Go long on a volume-backed breakout above $4,700, with a stop-loss at $4,650, targeting $4,800-$4,900.
Swing traders:
Wait for the PCE data and Warsh’s speech to be released. If the signals are dovish, take a heavy long position, targeting $4,900-$5,000. If they are hawkish, wait for a pullback to $4,500-$4,550 before getting in.
Long-term believers:
Systematically buy below $4,500 with your eyes closed. Driven by central-bank gold purchases, weakening confidence in the dollar, and the U.S. debt crisis, gold’s long-term target is $5,000-$6,000+.
Gold now looks just like Bitcoin in 2023—
99% of people thought it had “risen too much,” yet it went all the way from $2,000 to $4,000.
When $4,700 breaks through, you will realize:
It was never that gold was not good enough—it was that every time, you thought it was “too high.”
What is your cost basis for gold?
At $4,670, are you willing to get in?
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