Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

When the short end rises instead of falling, why have crypto assets become the optimal solution?
Last night, the U.S. Treasury announced that it may use nearly $1 trillion from the TGA account to buy long-term U.S. Treasuries.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell in response, briefly dropping below 4.7%. Gold climbed above $4,670. Bitcoin touched $80,000 again for the first time in 101 days.
Everything looked beautiful.
But did you notice the strangest part this time?
Short-term yields rose instead of falling.
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell to 4.2188%, but unbelievably rebounded to 4.238% by the close.
This makes no sense at all under the traditional logic of “Operation Twist.”
Normally, the Treasury buys long-term bonds and sells short-term bonds—the long-end yield falls and the short-end yield rises. This is called “twisting the curve.”
But the logic behind this TGA buyback is to directly use cash to buy long-term bonds, without needing to increase short-term bond supply at the same time.
Long-term Treasuries rose (yields fell) because someone was stepping in to buy.
Short-term Treasuries fell (yields rose) because the market suddenly realized that once the TGA funds are spent, short-term liquidity will be drained.
Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White hit the nail on the head: This operation is no longer strictly “Operation Twist,” but is closer to a “net liquidity injection.”
In plain English: The Treasury is adding liquidity at the long end while draining it at the short end.
Expectations for short-term liquidity within the banking system are deteriorating.
Traders are telling Bessent: “The problem is no longer whether you have money, but whether we believe you.”
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell below 4.70%, reaching 4.68%, before quickly bouncing back above 4.70%.
Bessent has put the gun on the table, but the traders have not yet left the poker table.
Now, let’s look at how the various assets performed—
Stocks: The S&P 500 fell 0.28%, the Nasdaq fell 0.76%, and Nvidia posted its seventh consecutive decline. Tightening at the short end directly suppressed risk appetite.
Bonds: Fighting internally. The long end fell while the short end rose—the market itself is tearing apart.
Gold: Climbed above $4,670. No counterparty risk, and no fear of a short-end liquidity squeeze.
Bitcoin: Rose nearly 30% in 8 days, breaking above $80,000.
Ethereum: Climbed above $2,500, with a weekly gain of over 31%
See it?
Gold and Bitcoin have become the greatest common denominators amid this chaos.
Why?
Because they have no counterparty risk—they are not vulnerable to a chain reaction of blowups caused by the drying up of interbank liquidity;
And they also directly benefit from expectations of monetary easing brought about by falling long-term yields.
This is not a coincidence.
Global macro hedge funds have discovered this structural loophole and are collectively pouring into Bitcoin as the preferred vehicle for a “QE-like trade.”
A 30% weekly gain is not an oversold rebound.
This is a structural repricing.
Traditional assets are fighting—short-term and long-term assets are fighting, stocks and bonds are fighting, and the market and the Treasury are fighting.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, has jumped straight out of this battlefield.
It stands with neither the short end nor the long end. It is the biggest beneficiary of this internal contradiction.
The key date ahead is September 9, when the first buyback operation will take place.
If short-term liquidity is further drained at that point while the long end continues to fall—
Then the decoupling between BTC and the Nasdaq will be officially established.
The independent macro bull market in crypto will officially begin.
But conversely—if the scale of the buyback operation falls short of expectations, or if the funds actually drawn from the TGA are far below the “nearly $1 trillion” imagined by the market (realistic estimates may be only $100-200 billion)—
Then this 30% rally could simply be a liquidity illusion.
The answer will be revealed on September 9.
If the actual operation on September 9 falls short of expectations, the market will reverse instantly.
A senior Treasury official said that “there are nearly three weeks of preparation time before the first operation.” These three weeks will be the window for the bulls and bears to battle.
There may be volatility in the short term, but the direction is already clear—
When structural cracks appear in the pricing logic of traditional markets, assets without counterparty risk are the ultimate safe haven. #BTC三天大涨20% #Gate储备金规模升至82亿美元 #质押ALIGN瓜分千万代币 $BTC $ETH $XAU

Let me play “crypto guru”:
This bitcoin:native rally probably won’t end until it reaches 95-97K
72-73K along the way will be a pullback low

Let me make a bold prediction:
The high for this run of $BTC should reach 95-97K
72-73K will be a pullback low along the way
{spot}(BTCUSDT)

The next market launch or turning point will come from Federal Reserve Waller’s speech at Jackson Hole this week:
The focus is not whether he emphasizes a dovish or hawkish stance
but whether the meeting will reveal if the Federal Reserve will change its inflation strategy to help the fiscal side.
If so, it will be the next catalyst for a bullish move
If not, the market will experience a turning point and pullback
bitcoin:native

The next market launch or turning point will be determined by the Fed’s Warsh speech at Jackson Hole this week:
The key is not whether he emphasizes a dovish or hawkish stance
but whether the meeting will address the following: Will the Fed change its inflation strategy to help the fiscal authorities?
If so, it will be a bullish catalyst for another upward move
If not, the market will see a turning point and pullback
$BTC
$XAU

Hahaha🤣

What’s going on? Even the Alpha Gold Standard tokens are flash-crashing. People in the group said it was the bottom, so I bought the dip with 20u and made a few days’ worth of meal money. But this is seriously ridiculous. What’s happening with the market now? Several coins have crashed today already.

Chinese people who can access Twitter really do have a higher level of awareness. When Unitree evaporated 200 billion, no one here believed it from day one. You only need to scroll through a couple of tweets to know what happened.
But when I looked through the comments, I found that most people didn’t know that the crypto exchanges they use every day allow them to short Unitree.
If retail investors in China lost money because of an information gap, then those of you on Twitter didn’t lose money, but you only watched it fall.
The information gap isn’t a wall. It has layer upon layer.

$215B entered #altcoins in just 3 days, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.
#Altseason signals are starting to show 👀🔥

Memory is king. In the short term, computing power is in short supply; in the medium term, chips are in short supply; storage is always in short supply. 😂 The above is just kidding around. One genuine takeaway is that I once again realized the market is always, always, always more patient than we imagine.

Since Bitcoin’s recent strong rebound, the long-dormant altcoin market has regained attention, with both market size and trading activity showing a significant recovery. As market risk appetite has returned, many altcoins have recently begun to post notable gains, with some tokens even outperforming the broader market.

After taking a look at $DOS ’s market performance, there are two things to consider: whether the project itself will make substantial progress going forward, and whether the AI + Crypto narrative can stay hot. After all, during this market cycle, the AI Agent sector has continued to attract significant capital and attention. Based on the current situation, $DOS is still generating buzz, and personally, I think the opportunity for a second wave is still worth anticipating. As it happens, Ave is currently running a trading event with $DOS , featuring a 50,000 U prize pool and a relatively low participation threshold:

Projects with real long-term value ultimately come down to product adoption and ecosystem development. Recently, keep an eye on $DOS . One key focus is enabling AI Agents to connect with Web3 applications more efficiently. $DOS has already attracted attention from multiple platforms, while liquidity and community interest continue to grow. Compared with simply hyping a concept, the ability to create real use cases is the key to a project’s long-term development. Ave × $DOS

I took a look at Sl8’s recent updates, and the pace feels quite pragmatic to me. CST is about to enter its window, with the token’s value tied to the company’s valuation rather than being purely speculative. Multichain integration is nearly 95% complete, and cross-chain interoperability is progressing steadily.

Bitcoin chose an invisible line between the black and green lines. This kind of move is called a straight-up pump, and it’s downright brutal: it gives you no time to think and no chance to hesitate. You didn’t get on board, did you? Fine, then you don’t need to.
If you review the market, you’ll find that this kind of move—quickly breaking away from the cost basis and never looking back—often appeared during the latter half of the 2023–2025 bull market.

Treasury Operations Update for Last Week:
◎ Last week was a week of explosive growth, and MicroStrategy did not sell any BTC. They went from a floating loss of $10 billion to a floating profit of $2.5 billion, recovering $12.5 billion in one week.
◎ Bitmine, meanwhile, continued purchasing 32,447 ETH ($68.75 million) last week. Their floating loss also narrowed from $8.5 billion to $5.1 billion, recovering $3.4 billion in one week.

After trying a bunch of VPNs, I finally settled on Xingchi VPN. It’s rock-solid—once connected, it runs at full speed, and even 4K videos play without buffering❤️ Couldn’t be more hassle-free. I’ve already recommended it to the entire group. Free to use:

A whale transferred 8 million USDC into Hyperliquid half an hour ago, then opened long positions worth $71.8 million in BTC and ETH. ◎600 BTC ($46.94 million), entry price: $78,032; ◎10,000 ETH ($24.89 million), entry price: $2,479. --------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold at $4,670—what are you waiting for?
Look at the surface first: gold bounced from around $4,000, its July low, to $4,670, gaining 17% in two months.
Spot gold broke through $4,670 per ounce, up 1.43% intraday; New York gold futures broke through $4,700 in one move. It rose approximately 6-7% for the week and approximately 15% for the month, reaching a more-than-three-month high. In less than a week, gold successively broke through the $4,500 and $4,600 levels. The candlesticks are telling you: this is not a rebound—it is a trend reversal.
First: confidence in the U.S. dollar is collapsing, yet you are still watching CPI.
The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly announced last week that it would at least double the scale of its long-term Treasury buybacks.
Do you understand? Even the U.S. government is worried that its Treasuries cannot be sold, so it has started buying them back itself.
What was the result? The U.S. Dollar Index plunged, while gold surged more than 5% in a single week. More importantly, after briefly retreating, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield quickly rebounded back to 4.7%, reflecting continued heavy selling pressure on Treasuries as the debt ceiling draws near.
Nobody wants U.S. Treasuries, the dollar is losing value, and gold has become the only safe haven.
Second: Goldman Sachs changed its tune, saying “$4,900 is too conservative.”
Goldman Sachs previously forecast gold at $4,900 by the end of 2026, but has now changed its stance—the original target already appears conservative. Why?
Because gold has entered a “mechanical acceleration zone.” A “Gamma squeeze” has emerged in the options market: investors are frantically buying call options, forcing market makers to add hedges as gold rises, creating a self-reinforcing cycle in which “the higher the price, the heavier the buying.”
Third: two nuclear-level events will erupt this week.
The first: July PCE inflation data (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) is about to be released. The market expects core PCE to remain at 3.3% year over year. If the data comes in soft, rate-cut expectations will heat up and gold could take off.
The second: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first major speech at Jackson Hole (10:00 p.m. Beijing time on August 28). The market is paying extremely close attention to his policy signals.
You can judge the bull-bear battle for yourself
On one side:
Confidence in the dollar is collapsing, and the Treasury is buying back its own debt
Central banks around the world are aggressively buying gold, while China has increased its holdings for 21 consecutive months
Goldman Sachs changed its stance, saying $4,900 is “too conservative,” while institutional long positions account for 60%
The SPDR Gold ETF added nearly 50 tons in one month
On the other side:
RSI has entered overbought territory, creating a risk of a short-term pullback
If PCE comes in hot or Warsh takes a hawkish stance, profit-taking could be triggered
$4,670-$4,700 is a strong resistance zone, with three failed attempts to break through
Key levels
Resistance above: $4,700 → $4,720-$4,750 → $4,800 → $4,900-$5,000
Support below: $4,620-$4,600 → $4,550-$4,570 → $4,500
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Buy in batches on a pullback to $4,600-$4,620, with a stop-loss at $4,550 and a target of $4,720-$4,750. Go long on a volume-backed breakout above $4,700, with a stop-loss at $4,650, targeting $4,800-$4,900.
Swing traders:
Wait for the PCE data and Warsh’s speech to be released. If the signals are dovish, take a heavy long position, targeting $4,900-$5,000. If they are hawkish, wait for a pullback to $4,500-$4,550 before getting in.
Long-term believers:
Systematically buy below $4,500 with your eyes closed. Driven by central-bank gold purchases, weakening confidence in the dollar, and the U.S. debt crisis, gold’s long-term target is $5,000-$6,000+.
Gold now looks just like Bitcoin in 2023—
99% of people thought it had “risen too much,” yet it went all the way from $2,000 to $4,000.
When $4,700 breaks through, you will realize:
It was never that gold was not good enough—it was that every time, you thought it was “too high.”
What is your cost basis for gold?
At $4,670, are you willing to get in? #BTC三天大涨20% #Gate储备金规模升至82亿美元 #质押ALIGN瓜分千万代币 $BTC $XAU $XAUT

When I made that post that day, my thinking was still relatively unclear, but I had already done it. Now my thinking is a bit clearer. Press it twice, put it in the middle, and proactively lower the difficulty.