Would you dare chase BTC at $78,100?
First, on the surface: up 25% in August, with retail traders shouting “new highs” out of FOMO.
Starting from around 62,000 at the end of June, it rose almost vertically to 81,000+, gaining 21%-25% in a single month, its strongest month since November 2024. Spot ETFs saw net inflows for nine consecutive days, with a weekly peak of $1.9 billion, while shorts were liquidated in a cascade.
And then? Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh made a hawkish debut at Jackson Hole, sending it back to 78,200.
First: Rate hike expectations have resurfaced, but BTC did not collapse.
What did Kevin Warsh say at Jackson Hole? PCE was up 3.7% year-on-year and annualized at 4.1% over the past six months. “The Fed still has work to do before inflation returns to 2%.”
The market raised the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 55%-60%. Crypto derivatives liquidations reached $480-$490 million, while BTC plunged from 81,000 to 76,880.
Sounds scary?
But how much did BTC fall? From 81,000 to 76,880, just 5%.
Second: The nine-day ETF inflow streak was interrupted, but the cumulative $54.5 billion remains.
On August 28, spot ETFs recorded $202 million in net outflows, with relatively heavy redemptions from ARKB, interrupting the nine-day inflow streak.
Retail traders panicked: “Institutions are fleeing! Run!”
Cumulative inflows in August exceeded $3 billion, while AUM at one point approached $100 billion. Cumulative net inflows remain around $54.5 billion.
One interruption to a nine-day inflow streak means “institutions are fleeing”? Then why didn’t you shout “institutions are going crazy” during the nine-day inflow streak?
If inflows turn positive again over the next two weeks, the area below 78,000 will be quickly bought up
If outflows continue, 78,000 will only then turn from support into a ceiling
Third: A signal has emerged on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.
The daily chart touched the upper boundary of the descending channel at 81,300 before retreating with a long upper wick, a typical “failed first test of the trendline.” But Friday’s low at 76,880 held, indicating genuine buying below 77k.
RSI has retreated from overbought levels above 80 into the upper range, indicating a strong pullback rather than a death-cross collapse. Short-term holders’ cost basis is around 70,100, with approximately 15% in unrealized profit—the rebound has made short-term holdings heavier, requiring rotation.
The bulls and bears are fighting; you decide
On one side:
Up 25% in August, with the 200-day moving average already broken above, strengthening the medium-term structure
Cumulative ETF net inflows of $54.5 billion, with institutional channels now open
The fiscal deficit + dollar depreciation narrative remains in place, and the digital gold thesis is still alive
Genuine buying absorbed Friday’s low at 76,880
The RSI pullback is not a collapse, perpetual funding is moderate, and longs are not yet overcrowded
On the other side:
Two failed tests of the upper boundary of the descending channel at 81,300
Warsh is hawkish, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to 55%-60%
The spot ETF nine-day inflow streak was interrupted, with $202 million in outflows
A long upper wick on the daily chart + high-level consolidation mean short-term digestion is needed
Resistance above: 80,000 → 81,300 (upper channel boundary + previous high) → 83,000-86,000
Support below: 77,380 → 76,880 → 76,500 → 75,300 → 70,100 (short-term holders’ cost basis)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
At 78,200, stay sidelined or use an extremely light position. Wait for a pullback to 76,880-77,400 to go long, with a stop-loss at 74,800, a first target of 79,600-80,000, and a second target of 81,300.
Swing traders:
Wait for a daily close firmly above 81,300 before chasing longs on the right side, with a target of 83,000-86,000. If 76,500 breaks, acknowledge that August’s primary uptrend has ended and wait to buy at 75,300 or 70,100.
Long-term believers:
Make staggered purchases below 75,000. At the current price of 78,200, there is still 38% upside to the ATH at 126,200. The medium- and long-term logic remains unchanged—halving, ETFs, and the rate-cut cycle. A break above the previous high will come sooner or later.
BTC now looks just like gold in 2023—
99% of people thought “rate hikes mean a drop,” but the fiscal deficit + de-dollarization narrative drove gold and BTC higher together.
On the day 81,300 breaks through, you will realize:
It wasn’t that BTC was incapable—it was that you sold every time during a pullback.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At 78,100, would you dare chase it?
#Gate7天净流入全球Top3 #BTC重返81000美元 #Strategy股价突破135美元 $BTC $SOL $ETH 
