Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

1. On the macro front, everything has been bearish these past few days (long-term bond yields); 2. The U.S.-Iran war has also been entirely bearish these past few days. Then, when you look at the market’s performance in light of the bearish news, you’ll find that Intel has remained relatively strong at this level. 1. The area enclosed by the rectangle is the top area; 2. During the first rebound, it touched the top area, encountered resistance, and continued to pull back;

Carving a mark on a moving boat to look for a sword: The previous cycle’s Bitcoin high was 126,000, compared with 69,000 in the cycle before that, reaching 182%; the previous cycle’s Ethereum high was 4,950, compared with 4,100 in the cycle before that, reaching 120%. If Ethereum and Bitcoin had risen by the same 182%, Ethereum’s high in the previous cycle should have reached around 9,000.
That’s why I’m saying we need to look at the connections.

Long-held view: If we only consider the crypto market itself, Bitcoin:native led the last cycle. If we have to choose an asset from within the crypto market to lead this cycle, then it is highly likely to be $ETH . From this rally, we can see that whether around 1900 or at the current level, E has been using very strong sideways consolidation to digest overbought and divergence indicators.

War broke out, yet BTC fell below 77k: the “digital gold” safe-haven narrative has been completely shattered
The US military conducted an airstrike against targets inside Iran.
Brent crude surged 4.6%, reaching $94.65 per barrel.
Textbooks tell you: war → safe havens → gold rises, Bitcoin rises.
Reality: Bitcoin fell below $77k, hitting a low of $76,762.
What happened?
At noon on September 1, the US Central Command ordered strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets inside Iran. Explosions were reported in multiple locations across southern Iran, including Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, and Chabahar.
Trump declared that the strikes were “large-scale and powerful.” If Iran retaliates, the next round will be “more intense and at a higher level.”
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard immediately struck back: missiles were launched at a US military base in Jordan, and a US MQ-9 drone was shot down. Iran declared: “The gift is on its way.”
This is not a drill. This is a real fight.
And then?
Bitcoin plunged from its intraday high of $79,166.
It fell to a low of $76,762.
Within one hour, approximately $115 million in crypto long positions were forcibly liquidated.
Crypto-related stocks were drenched in blood: Strategy fell 6.06%, Coinbase fell 6.01%, and Circle fell 6.35%.
All three major US stock indexes fell, with the Dow down 0.79% and the Nasdaq down 1.03%.
War broke out, and risk assets are all falling. That is not surprising.
What is truly devastating is—
Gold is also falling.
Spot gold closed down 2.48% at $4,327 per ounce. It briefly fell below the $4,300 mark during the session. From last week’s high of nearly $4,700, it has fallen almost 7%.
War broke out. Oil prices surged. Gold, the safe-haven asset—is falling.
So where did the safe-haven money go?
Into the dollar. The US Dollar Index rebounded, approaching a two-week high.
Into US Treasuries. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.798%, its highest level since January 2025.
The word “safe haven” has nothing to do with Bitcoin, nor with gold. It only applies to the dollar and US Treasuries.
Consider this logic chain—
War → oil prices surge → inflation expectations heat up → rate-hike expectations strengthen → non-yielding assets are sold off.
Oil prices rose 4.6%, with Brent climbing above $94. Energy prices directly pushed up inflation.
Fed Chair Warsh said at Jackson Hole just last week: “The fight against inflation is not over.”
The market immediately priced it in: CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike soaring from around one-third a week earlier to above 65%. Some data even put it at 68%.
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.798%—what does Bitcoin, which generates no interest, have to compete with it?
Bitcoin is not a hedge against geopolitical risk.
It is a thermometer for global liquidity.
When war arrives, the funds’ first reaction is not “buy Bitcoin as a safe haven”—but rather “oil prices will rise, inflation will rise, rate hikes are coming, and liquidity will tighten.”
When liquidity tightens, BTC falls.
It is that simple.
Some will say: “But BTC has risen during wars before.”
That is true. But you need to distinguish between them—BTC rises when the market expects war to force central banks to inject liquidity. It falls when the market believes war will push up inflation and force central banks to withdraw liquidity.
The same geopolitical crisis can produce completely opposite asset reactions under different macroeconomic conditions.
BTC has never possessed an “innate safe-haven” attribute. It is sensitive to only one thing: whether liquidity is loose or tight.
The “digital gold” narrative that everyone enthusiastically promoted over the past few years was essentially an illusion nurtured in a special environment of zero interest rates and unlimited QE.
When liquidity is abundant, everything can rise. Bitcoin can rise, memes can rise, and worthless coins can rise too. That is not “safe-haven buying”; it is simply everything rising with the tide.
What about now? The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.8%, the probability of a rate hike is 65%, and inflation has remained above 2% for N consecutive years.
The tide has gone out. Who is swimming naked is plain to see.
In this conflict:
Brent crude rose 4.6% → up
The US Dollar Index rebounded → up
The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.798% → up
Gold fell 2.48% → down
Bitcoin fell to $76.7k → down
Crypto-related stocks fell 6%+ → down
Safe-haven assets are not providing safety. Risk assets are even riskier.
“Bitcoin is digital gold”—this claim helped convince quite a few people to get on board over the past few years.
But it has never been a fact. It is merely a marketing slogan.
Gold has a 5,000-year history as a store of value. What does Bitcoin have? A 14-year price chart and a pile of “to the moon” memes.
That is not to say Bitcoin has no value. Its value lies in scarcity, decentralization, and the convenience of cross-border transfers.
But its price movement has always followed liquidity, not geopolitical risk.
Understand this, and you can survive in this market.
The US military conducted an airstrike against Iran, and Bitcoin fell below $77k.
This is not the first time, nor will it be the last. #Gate用户突破6000万 #Anthropic再签350亿美元算力协议 #GateFutures完成CFTC注册并加入NFA $BTC $XAU $CL

$POL ‌ 1H 📊
POL is holding a decent recovery structure after the sharp drop to $0.08634. The Supertrend has flipped green at $0.08875, and the price is still above it.
That said, momentum has cooled around $0.0928, so I’d wait for either a clean breakout or a better retest.
Trade Setup
Entry: $0.08980–$0.09030
SL: $0.08850
TP1: $0.09280
TP2: $0.09500
TP3: $0.09900
What I’m watching 👀
The $0.0898–$0.0903 zone is the key near-term support area. If buyers keep defending it, the current higher-low structure stays intact.
The first real hurdle is $0.0928. POL has already been rejected around that area a few times, so a clean 1H close above $0.0928 would be the confirmation I’d want for continuation.
Above that, $0.095 → $0.099 becomes interesting.
If POL loses $0.0885, I’d leave the long setup alone. A deeper move toward the $0.0863 low could come back into play.
Clean play: I like the structure, but I wouldn’t chase at $0.0906. Let it retest support or wait for the $0.0928 breakout.
#Gate60MillionUsers #AnthropicSigns35BCloudDeal
$MU ‌

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Bitcoin falls under $77,000 and $ETH falls under $2,400 as US and Iran exchange strikes.
$100,000,000 liquidated from the crypto market in the past 60 minutes.#AnthropicSigns35BCloudDeal #GateEventContractTradeSharingChallenge #RobinhoodChainDailyRevenueSurpassesEthereum $BTC

$fone got hit hard.
And honestly?
It's starting to look juicy down here. 👀

1⃣Machi Big Brother launched a meme on the Robinhood chain early this morning called $TAIWAN . 2⃣Tonight, he personally spent 16,700 USDC to purchase 27.56 million tokens, meaning he bought in at a market cap of $0.6M. PS: Participation in Machi Big Brother’s projects is not recommended. His scythe swings even faster than the losses he suffered from going long on ETH on Hyperliquid. He has launched at least eight, if not ten, tokens. His previous project was in 2024

When I have funds I don't need temporarily but don't want to lock up for too long, I first look at the short-term options. In the current Sl8 campaign, these two options are relatively easy to get started with:
Lock for 30 days, 28% APR
Lock for 90 days, 38% APR
Note: The 28% and 38% rates are annualized rates. You won't earn 28% just by locking your funds for 30 days. The actual amount you earn depends on how many days you lock your funds for.

Tom Lee's BitMine bought $126 Million worth of $ETH today.#Gate60MillionUsers #GateFuturesRegistersWithCFTCJoinsNFA

The Bitcoin bull has no balls

MemeFi MemeFi MemeFi Meme financialization is the most important trend of 2026. The old guard will age, and the young guard will grow up. One advantage the young guard has over the old guard is that they are better at playing with memes. They understand the attention economy of the social media era better than the old guard, spotting opportunities faster and more accurately. As the era of the young guard arrives, this advantage will bring crypto and memes into the financial world as a legitimate force! MemeFi!

✨ MGBX Officially Enters a New Brand Phase
From its brand image to the product experience, MGBX is moving toward its next chapter in a new way. Behind this new expression is the platform’s long-term direction of continuously expanding the boundaries of its products and markets.
🎁 During the brand refresh, I’ve prepared 5 MGBX mystery brand-upgrade merchandise gift packages for everyone. Repost + like + comment on this post, and leave your MGBX UID to enter the giveaway.
⏰ 48

Bitcoin is currently at $78,000, but I’m still bearish. What do you guys think? Vote and let’s see. 👀

SOL at $102—are you going to miss out?
Look at the surface first: it has risen too much, a normal pullback, and retail investors are panicking.
From $70-$75 in August, it climbed all the way to $110, up 40%+, marking the first strong monthly candle in nearly 10 months. It has now pulled back to $101, down less than 10%. After breaking above $96, it pulled back to confirm the breakout—this is textbook healthy consolidation. The structure is intact, so don’t scare yourself.
First: the inflation halving has passed, and supply is set to contract.
The SGP-0002 proposal passed with 67% support, raising the annual inflation decay from 15% to 30% and reducing new issuance by 18.9 million SOL over the next six years. Staking yields will gradually decline, while the long-term floor remains 1.5%.
SOL’s “money-printing speed” has been cut drastically, and fewer and fewer new coins will be issued going forward.
Second: ETFs are attracting capital aggressively, and institutions are accelerating their entry.
Bitwise BSOL’s assets surpassed $1 billion, with $154 million in net inflows last week, its strongest single week since launch. Charles Schwab is also planning to include SOL in its crypto trading products—one of the brokerages with the largest retail user bases in the US.
The door for institutions has been fully opened, from “can it be bought?” to “buy it freely.”
Cumulative net inflows into spot ETFs have already reached $1.2-$1.3 billion. Think about it: a coin with a market cap of only tens of billions has attracted more than $1 billion through ETFs alone. And this is just the beginning.
Third: the September 9 upgrade is coming, and Transaction V1 is on the way.
The per-transaction limit will rise from 1,232 bytes to 4,096 bytes, more than tripling. The Alpenglow consensus upgrade is still to come.
What does this mean? More complex applications can run on Solana, pushing throughput to another level.
After four years, OpenSea has relaunched Solana NFTs. Tokenized RWA stocks account for an extremely high share of trading volume, and daily active users on-chain exceed 2 million. Solana has evolved from a “meme chain” into “financial infrastructure.”
You decide in the bull-bear battle
On one side:
The inflation halving has passed, and supply contraction is being implemented
ETFs attracted $154 million in a single week, with institutions continuing to buy
The September 9 upgrade is imminent, with Transaction V1 benefiting throughput
August’s strong monthly candle rose 40%+, and the breakout above $96 confirmed a trend reversal
Exchange balances are declining, while whale addresses are increasing
On the other side:
The pullback from $110 to $101 means short-term profit-taking needs to be absorbed
The macro environment remains tight, with the probability of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting at 30%-60%
Nonfarm payrolls and CPI data are packed together, so volatility will increase
$110 has failed three times, creating significant psychological pressure
Resistance above: 105 → 108-110 (dense previous-high zone) → 112-116 → 125
Support below: 100 (psychological level) → 96 (breakout confirmation level) → 94-95 (strong support)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Lightly test long positions at 100-102, with a stop-loss below 96. Take some profit at 108-110 first, then watch 112-116.
Swing traders:
94-96 is a better mid-term accumulation zone. Build positions in batches if it reaches that range. Stop-loss at 90, with a target of 120-125. Volatility will likely expand around the September 9 upgrade. Don’t chase the rally; wait for a pullback.
Long-term believers:
Blindly dollar-cost average below 100. Solana fell from 294 to 70 and then climbed back to 101; the bottom has already been solidified. The target for 2027 is 150-200+, betting on continued ETF inflows, an RWA boom, and the rate-cut cycle.
Ironclad risk-management rules:
Keep leverage below 5-8x; you can’t withstand 10x leverage in this volatility
Limit the risk on each trade to 1-2% of your capital
Reduce positions or lock in profits three days before nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and the FOMC
If 96 breaks on heavy volume, get out first and ask questions later
SOL now looks just like ETH at the end of 2023—
99% of people think “it has risen too much and needs a pullback,” but it went from 70 to 110, and now after pulling back to 101, the next stop is 150.
The day 110 breaks, you’ll realize:
It wasn’t that Solana was no good—it’s that you sold at the lows and chased rallies at the highs every time.
What is your SOL cost basis?
At 101, do you dare add to your position?#Gate首发上线日股交易 #Anthropic再签350亿美元算力协议 #Gate闲钱宝自动生息享3%年化 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Bitcoin just had its BEST August since 2017.
August 2026: +24.95%
August 2017: +65.32%
But here's what happened after August 2017:
October: +47.81%
November: +53.48%
December: +38.89%
History doesn't have to repeat.
But when you see a setup like this, it's hard not to pay attention. 👀
#Gate60MillionUsers
#AnthropicSigns35BCloudDeal
#GateFuturesRegistersWithCFTCJoinsNFA

$BTC is approaching a key resistance zone at $80K–$80.5K, where the order block meets a strong Fibonacci level.
The reaction here could define the next short-term move. 👀

Bitcoin just had its BEST August since 2017.
August 2026: +24.95%
August 2017: +65.32%
But here's what happened after August 2017:
October: +47.81%
November: +53.48%
December: +38.89%
History doesn't have to repeat.
But when you see a setup like this, it's hard not to pay attention. 👀

ARB at $0.108—are you adding to your position?
First, the surface view: from $2.4 to $0.07, down 97%, with retail investors crying, “ARB is garbage.”
It was still barely holding on around $0.07 in mid-August. Then, from August 31 to September 1, one massive-volume bullish candle sent it straight to $0.12, breaking above the 200-day moving average. 24-hour trading volume surged, and FOMO was off the charts. But short-term RSI has already shot into the 70–80 overbought zone, while the upper wick tells you that everything above $0.12 is a zone full of trapped holders. The bullish catalyst is real, but chasing the rally could be deadly.
First: Robinhood Chain has transformed ARB from an “air coin” into a “rent-collecting stock.”
ARB used to be criticized for having only governance voting rights, with no value capture whatsoever. Now Robinhood—a licensed brokerage with tens of millions of users—has chosen to build its own dedicated chain based on Arbitrum Orbit. Less than a week after launch, protocol fees surged from tens of thousands of dollars in late August to $1–2 million, nearly 20 times higher.
More importantly, look at the rules: 10% of the dedicated chain’s net revenue flows back into the Arbitrum ecosystem—8% goes to the DAO treasury and 2% to the Developers Guild.
Second: The ArbOS Elara upgrade + ZK proofs are adding fuel on the technical side as well.
The Elara upgrade has just gone live, bringing compliance filtering, priority fee support, and a fourfold increase in Stylus contract capacity. Progress on ZK proofs is accelerating and could shorten settlement times from 7 days to several hours.
Stablecoin inflows, tokenized stocks, RWA, and trading volumes on perp DEXs such as Variational are all heating up. Arbitrum is transforming from an “altcoin L2” into “Wall Street’s L2.” Robinhood is just the first domino.
Third: A signal has emerged on the technical chart that demands attention.
The daily chart broke above the 200-day moving average ($0.101–$0.103) on heavy volume, while also breaking out of the previous descending channel. This is one of the few structurally strong signals seen since 2024.
A textbook double-bottom structure formed around $0.07. The second test of the lows in mid-August held above the previous low, immediately triggering a rebound. From $2.4 to $0.07, the token fell 97%; historically, declines of this magnitude often lay the groundwork for the largest rebounds.
Bulls vs. bears—you decide
On one side:
Robinhood Chain gives ARB real value capture, with annualized revenue of tens of millions of dollars
A regulated brokerage entering the arena itself, providing institutional-level endorsement
A violent rebound of 50%+ from $0.07, breaking above the 200-day moving average and descending channel
Ecosystem data: $1.4 billion TVL, $3.5 billion in stablecoins, $830 million in RWA, and daily perp trading volume above $1 billion
On the other side:
92.63 million ARB tokens unlocked on September 16 (approximately $8–9 million)
Short-term RSI is overbought, with heavy selling pressure above $0.12
The FOMC on September 15–16 could raise interest rates, while a hawkish macro environment weighs on altcoins
Some on-chain data shows net inflows to exchanges on September 1, indicating that profit-taking is underway
Resistance above: $0.115–$0.120 → $0.13 → $0.15+
Support below: $0.100–$0.105 → $0.095 → $0.085–$0.09 (the previous consolidation range)
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to $0.100–$0.105 and confirmation of support before going long with low leverage. Set a stop-loss at $0.095 and exit if it breaks down. Take profits in batches around $0.115–$0.12; if it breaks above and holds $0.12, $0.13 comes into view.
For swing traders:
Build a position in batches within the $0.095–$0.105 range (20–30% position size), with a stop-loss at $0.09 and an initial target of $0.13–$0.15. If Robinhood Chain fees remain elevated and the macro environment turns dovish, there could be more upside.
The September 15–16 FOMC meeting is the biggest variable—if a rate hike is delivered, altcoins could broadly pull back
The unlock is a known negative catalyst, but no one knows whether the market will price it in ahead of time
ARB’s story has changed—
From “the leading L2, but the token is useless” to “the ecosystem landlord of Wall Street’s L2—a rent-collecting asset.”
The day $0.12 establishes itself as support, you’ll realize:
It wasn’t that ARB was incapable—it was that you always panic-sold at the bottom and FOMO-chased at the top.
What is your cost basis for ARB?
At $0.108, do you dare add to your position? #Gate首发上线日股交易 #Anthropic再签350亿美元算力协议 #Gate闲钱宝自动生息享3%年化 $BTC $ETH $ARB