Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

#十月上涨行情能如期而至吗？ said a summary of the next Favourable Information currencies
1: The general election is on November 8th, and the hype should start 2.3 weeks before the $Peopel hype below 0.058, and it is expected to be 20% or more.
2: $Avax will hold its annual summit on the 16th and update to avax 9000. Follow short-term and enter a position below 24. Expected increase is more than 10%.
3: $OM will launch on Mainnet at the end of the month, the strongest currency of rwa, lying in ambush below 1.2, with an expected increase of 20%.
4: $Wld will launch an expanded version at the end of the month, and Nvidia will release a new generation of 50 series graphics cards at the end of the year. Ai leading $FET can be configured first-hand, with both expected to increase by more than 20%.
#BTC

This may just be a manifestation of human nature...
The decline of the Bull Market is more painful because of profit withdrawal, while the decline of the Bear Market is more indifferent, mainly because hope has already been lost.
The emotional intensity generated by the loss of something that has been obtained may even exceed that of just obtaining it;
For example:
1. A person who is completely destitute and ignorant usually has an emotional level between 10~30 points;
2. After suddenly earning 10 million, the emotional level will soar to 90-100 points despite being originally poor and blank.
3. After earning money and losing it all, the emotional level will drop to -100;
Simply put, the pleasure brought by sudden wealth is only 70-90 points, while the emotional impact of losing all the wealth gained is 190-200 points.
This also explains why it is more uncomfortable when the profit is withdrawn than when trapped...
The most powerful thing about the bull market is that there will always be people who get whipsawed out of positions by this emotional mechanism, and if they enter the bear market early, everyone will be in a tied up state, and market makers will not only be unable to complete the dump, but also unable to make these people surrender their chips at the bottom...
So, some people prefer to be trapped rather than suffer from profit drawdown. In the long run, they even develop a habit and feel uncomfortable if not trapped.
After all, profit drawdown is a gradual process of losing hope, while being Tied Up is a process of waiting for hope to emerge. The former has high expectations, while the latter has no high expectations. Compared to the former, the latter is more comfortable and easier to lose money.
In the trading world, there are no comfortable Holdings. If you find yourself feeling comfortable when Holdings, then the distance to profit withdrawal is not far.
#BTC

When will the BTC bull market start this time, and what are the time predictions for the BTC bull market? According to the discussions you found on X, the following different views can be summarized:
Possible signs of a bull run in the short term: Some users pointed out that if BTC breaks through $68,000 and stabilizes, it may initiate a new round of market. However, the market sentiment is fluctuating significantly at the moment, with many believing that breaking through $73,000 is truly entering a bull run, and the probability of a bull run is low.
Forecast based on historical cycles: According to the analysis of BTC's halving cycle, the latest information indicates that the crazy cycle after halving will start 170 days after halving, and October 6, 2024 is the key node. This suggests that the bull run may have already begun or is about to begin.
Long-term perspective of Bull Market prediction: Some comments believe that the period between 2022 and 2024 is not a true Bull Market, but a transition phase from Bear Market to Bull Market. The real Bull Market will come between 2025-2026. This view holds that BTC's brief breakthrough of the high point in 2021 is mainly due to the ETF application, rather than the true Bull Market momentum of the market.
Analysis on interest rate cuts and capital inflows: Some analysts believe that BTC may not have a significant reaction after the first interest rate cut, but with multiple rate cuts, large funds may start to buy risk assets, and it is predicted that a large amount of capital will flow in this quarter, driving the Bull Market.
#BTC

October 4, 2024 | 4:00 PM (UTC), see you then

Two reasons for the decline in the opening of #十月上涨行情能如期而至吗？ 10.
1: Iran attacked Israel,
2: The old Powell of the Federal Reserve has come out to hawk again
The Fed's interest rate cut policy helps to alleviate market tension, and the market will not continue to decline. If you already hold some Spot assets and are Tied Up, the current suggestion is to be patient, adjust your mentality, and wait for the market to recover.
From a macro perspective, unless the war situation deteriorates further, the Cryptocurrency market is highly likely to return to its original longs trend. For investors holding Spot, a diversified investment is a prudent strategy. Investors using leverage or Contract Trading should be more cautious, consider cautiously buying long positions on a small scale, and closely follow the situation changes, adjusting Position timely.
If the war does not escalate, it is expected that there will be a short-term Rebound in the market, providing investors with an opportunity to adjust their Position. follow official statements from relevant parties to stay informed of the latest developments. Although war may bring short-term Fluctuation, the trend of the Bull Market is not expected to change as a result in the long run. Overall, under the premise of no war escalation, the market's recovery will be dominated by long positions.
#BTC

Which of the following four strategies do you prefer?
1. Zero leverage or risk-free leverage. For example, 2x for BTC and 1.5x for ETH, there is basically no risk of getting liquidated. Too high leverage may make money quickly, but as long as you maintain high leverage, getting liquidated is only a matter of time.
2. Bull Market Buy the Dips, and slowly Coin Hoarding in a Bear Market. In a Bull Market, any dip is a buying opportunity. For example, in this Bull Market, buying when BTC drops by around 20%, even with Spot purchases, has already doubled. However, it's different in a Bear Market where one can only slowly hoard Spot and wait for the arrival of a Bull Market. What stage are we in now? I think we are still in a Bull Market, and it is also the easiest stage to make money.
3. Set a stop loss in time. This is not accepting losses, but waiting for more opportunities. Because once you hold a losing position, you may miss many trading opportunities, and earn less money. After all, opportunity cost is also a cost.
4. Only play mainstream, don't play altcoin. Altcoin is indeed very tempting, a pump may be several times or even tens of times. But it also means that there is no chance of turning over once it falls. And altcoin is basically illogical, more of a speculation, with great uncertainty. Mainstream Token may rise slowly, but fortunately, there is a wide range of information. You can do enough analysis and make more rational judgments.
#BTC

Every rebound of BTC can reveal the powerlessness of 99% of altcoins in the market after the exhaustion of liquidity. The correlation between BTC and altcoins is gradually disappearing. If the A-share market continues to gain momentum after the holiday, the liquidity of the altcoin market will definitely be further exacerbated, with BTC being supported by the Americans while alts are not.
I often tell everyone a truth, especially for altcoins that have gone through a round of bull market. If the market maker leaves, it basically becomes decentralized. There is rarely a possibility of changing hands in the altcoin market because it only takes a few seconds to issue a coin. Who would use real money to dumb buying for you? Isn't it better for me to launch my own coin? After 10 years of blockchain, the stories are basically exhausted. That's why the meme market is hot, because smart money understands this. I release a meme, control 99% of the chips, release 1% of the chips for advertising, and then make a profit. No matter how I play, I can't lose money. According to this logic, the only thing you can hold is BTC. ETH also follows the altcoin logic. Do you understand?
The currency itself has no value, it is just speculative value, so playing with currency is like playing with plates, you must choose the right trading, you must use stop loss, or it will kill you;
To put it bluntly, it is basically impossible for AltCoins, especially older ones, to have the possibility of a Bull Market. There may be a few exceptions that you cannot predict, but this is how absolute it is, and you must recognize the current situation.
And those altcoins that can be followed, new coins, and sub-new coins, that is to say, there may be opportunities to go up in 23 years, but remember to do the right side with stop loss, don't stubbornly adhere to it.
#BTC

Yesterday, on October 1st, there was a major pullback on the first day of October, which has caused panic once again,
Many rumors have started to emerge again, saying that all funds have flowed into the A-share market, and that the situation in the Middle East has worsened, leading to a decline. Everyone is starting to worry that there will be a further major drop.
There are all kinds of reasons for the fall, and all kinds of reasons can be made up.
A-shares are our Chinese stock market, crypto world is the global financial market, and completely unrelated things can be associated with each other,
I can only say: Market Maker goes to great lengths to shake off retail investor get out of positions, making retail investor dare not enter the market, it's really painstaking.
The monthly trend line for September has closed, and the market is now very clear.
No matter how the market falls at the beginning of October, it will not affect the final trend of October.
Just like when it fell in early September, I reminded that September would eventually pump.
At this time, the shorter the time frame, the easier it is to be deceived by Market Makers. The shorter the time frame, such as daily candlestick, 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute, the easier it is for Market Makers to manipulate.
But the only thing Market Maker cannot control is the trend, the weekly and monthly charts are the overall direction, which Market Maker cannot influence.
So, many people are now looking at the daily candlestick and 4-hour chart, thinking that there will be a big dump.
This is often the time when you fall into the bear trap of the Market Maker.
The trend of short-term market changes is just a momentary thing. Don't be fooled by yesterday's fall of 7-8 points. It fell more than ten points in the past few days.
Once the bear trap is completed, one night, while everyone is sound asleep, a big bullish candle will emerge, and the army will come to meet.
But once you Miss Out and miss the opportunity to enter a position, you will hesitate to get on board, only to wait constantly and watch the price pump along the way.
#BTC

If you understand the points, it's clearly an order that has already made a profit. However, often due to psychological factors, you may miss good opportunities. You can take a look at the following content:
In the process of selling, there are only three situations:
1、close all positions，兑现到手的利润，但要接受卖飞
2. Walk half, leave half, realize half the profits, and the other half may have greater gains or losses.
3. Setting a principal-protected product may potentially earn more, but one must also accept the reality of reduced profits.
This is the weakness of human nature, and the solution is simple. Establish a trading plan, strictly execute it, and use the plan to replace the greed and fear of human nature.
For example, as I mentioned earlier, the short-term position should not exceed 10% of the overall position. In terms of profit, the short-term should be around 10% to 15%, the medium-term around 30%, and the long-term should double the initial investment.
Using a trading plan instead of being 'at will' can avoid the psychological dilemma of being afraid to buy at a certain point and reluctant to sell at the target.
#BTC

#你最看好的meme币种是？ the market has turned positive at this point. Don't be anxious, there's no need to enter a position here, that one didn't enter a position, remember a few points, bookmark + follow for easy reference
1. Look for strong buys, you can see what is strong, shib is strong, pepe is strong, sats is strong;
2. Find the position, buy on pullback;
3. Do not focus on so many coins. Most people mainly buy too many scattered coins. They want to hold everything, but only need to buy 2-3 types of coins. If the variety is too scattered, it will definitely be overwhelming, like a monkey breaking corn cobs, and in the end, it will end in chaos.
4. Once the market reverses, it is a long-term hold at a higher level, at least a 4-hour hold, without breaking the trend line or closing above the EMA30 moving average, you can confidently hold.
5. To look at the big and do the small, find buying points in the small cycle, and hold in the large cycle.
6. Dare to chase the market, if the key level is broken, you must dare to chase in, especially the key resistance level that has been consolidating for a long time. There is a saying that in a bull market, those who are afraid to chase the market are doomed.
7. Remember to withdraw the principal in batches when the profit exceeds 50%, and do not believe in the hype of 10 times, 100 times, and the like.
#BTC

#BTC在10月份能否突破历史新高？ Grayscale announced its bullish Top20 by the end of 2024.
Q4 quarter additions: SUI, TAO, OP, HNT, CELO, UMA
No change: BTC, ETH, SOL, TON, LINK, Near, UNI, STX, AAVE, AR, MKR (sky), LDO, AKT, AERO
Remove: Render, Mantle, ThorChain, PENDLE, Illuvium, Raydium
Grayscale's classification is very simple, classification + theme + Market Cap + Volatility, you can learn.
AR has been dumping recently, so the Bull Market has been quiet.
HNT: The weekly income of helium offload traffic has already caught up with half of the incentive release of mobile Token, and it is still exponentially increasing. It is expected to fully catch up with the Token incentive release in a week.
This means that helium has a great chance to break away from the early mining rig flywheel and the old path of token incentive acquisition.
Greatness needs no words.
#BTC

What you need to know in a bull run~

1. In a bull market, the more popular the coin, the faster and more fierce the decline.
2. True Promising Crypto and 100x coins will never be widely promoted in the market. On the contrary, they are only occasionally mentioned by a few people in the early stage (when the traffic is still low).
3. Market Cap, the number of listed exchanges, the amount held, investment institutions, etc., cannot be used as reliable criteria for coin selection.
4. There are always predators in the market who closely monitor the market data.
5. During a longer Rebound period, AltCoins will also have similar ways of rising.
6. For newly launched coins, don't touch those that experience big pump first and then big dump.
7. Similarly, there have always been predators in the market who chase rising pricessell with bearish market.
8. Buy and it falls, sell and it rises, just like the rules and system of society, which are difficult to change (because you represent 99% of suckers mindset).
9. After buying, not only did it not fall but rose, when the profit is between 5% and 20%, it suddenly began to decline, which means that the coin is about to start collecting money for Be Played for Suckers.
10. The most violent Rebound is definitely not a Promising Crypto.
In a Bull Market, betting on Rebound, you should choose currencies with larger price increases and current hot topics.
12. Holding a direction contrary to the majority's viewpoint often helps to break the deadlock.
13. In the Bull Market, the coins that closely follow the rise and fall of BTC, and have the most significant Fluctuation, are definitely the most promising coins in this Bull Market.

After the Fed started cutting interest rates in September, coupled with global Liquidity moving towards easing, the current season of the Bull Market's altcoin is just beginning to kick off, coinciding with the fifth wave of BTC eruption.
Don't worry about the brothers who are Miss Out now, don't hesitate to do it if there is a small meeting in the next few days, because this round of Bull Market will definitely last until February and March next year.
In this wave of market, Meme tokens have performed the best, but now the prices are already high, and in the Meme field, it is usually about playing with the new rather than the old, and the market is constantly rotating.
With the arrival of October, the Crypto Assets market is quietly brewing an unprecedented revolution. We firmly believe that the fourth quarter will be a key moment for the official launch of the Bull Market, and are you ready for the upcoming wave?
Recently, the encryption market has shown a stable and upward trend, with overall market data being healthy and vibrant. Despite occasional fluctuations in market sentiment, every pullback is a good opportunity to get on board.
It is important to stay rational and avoid blindly following the trend (FOMO), and move steadily in the pump trend.
#BTC

GraFun Day 1: Over 5800 Tokens were launched, costing $96,000, and the market capitalization of a TokenMarket Cap on the platform has already reached $120 million!

Let's talk about a strategy method for Margin Replenishment during a decline!
"DropHoldings" strategy is one way to drop the cost of holdings, but there are also many risks to consider.
1️⃣ Fund Management: Margin Replenishment requires sufficient funds. If the market continues to decline, Margin Replenishment will quickly deplete the funds. Without enough fund support, it may not be possible to continue Margin Replenishment, thus unable to effectively dilute the cost.
2️⃣ Market trend: In a Bear Market or continuous decline, Margin Replenishment may lead to greater losses. Accurate judgment of market trends is required, otherwise Margin Replenishment may only increase losses.
3️⃣Risk Tolerance: Investors need to have a strong risk tolerance. Margin Replenishment is a high-risk strategy that requires investors to be able to withstand potential further declines.
4️⃣ Psychological pressure: Continued decline and Margin Replenishment will bring great psychological pressure to investors, affecting decision-making and mentality.
5️⃣Investment goal: Investors need to consider long-term investment goals, not just short-term cost averaging.
Summary: The idea of earning 1% profit per day may seem simple, but it is difficult to achieve in reality. The market is full of uncertainty, and wrong decisions can lead to rapid losses. Successful investment requires careful strategies and thoughtful considerations, not just relying on mathematical calculations or luck. Even with a 60% success rate, it does not guarantee the absence of 40% failures in the long term.
#BTC

Will the rise of A shares have an impact on the currency circle?
I personally think there will indeed be some impact. Nowadays, China's global influence is evident, and in the face of the current environment, China has taken exemplary measures.
Recently, A-shares have continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of up to 400 points. Although the US stock market has also risen, the increase is relatively small. So far, the United States has only taken interest rate cuts measures without other significant performance.
In such a global economic environment, the resurgence of the US economy is bound to attract foreign capital inflows, which is not what the US wants to see. Therefore, the US may be forced to introduce a series of policies to stimulate the economy, which is Favourable Information for both the US economy and the cryptocurrency market.
Friends in the cryptocurrency circle, this time you must seize the opportunity.
I personally believe that October may be the beginning of creating wealth again, the key is whether you are willing to seize this opportunity.
#BTC

Only by personally experiencing and persevering through the most agonizing time in the early stage of the Bull Market, can we embrace future opportunities more robustly.
Over the past six months, the market's Fluctuation and pullback have posed a dual test for investors:
First of all, the test is whether investors can discern market trends and make wise decisions. From the market pullback since April until recently, many investors have been confused about the bull-bear transition because they cannot accurately grasp the market pulse. They blindly increase the position when the market initially pulls back, but unfortunately, they get trapped at high levels. And when the market falls to September, fear makes them dump at low levels, ultimately missing the opportunity and causing the value of the account to stagnate.
Secondly, this is a severe test for investors' selected investment projects. Many people, when choosing investment products, blindly pursue the so-called "the strong get stronger" based solely on its market performance and public opinion heat, but lack in-depth understanding of the project itself. They do not care about the actual usage of the project, the strength of the founding team and researchers, the financial situation of the project party, and the relevance of the project to the development of blockchain. This behavior, which judges value solely based on price performance and blindly chases the market, leads to heavy losses for them when the market pulls back, even if the market warms up recently, the account still faces substantial losses.
#BTC

A round of sharp rise.
The streets and alleys are all discussing the story of the A-share market reaching 6000 points. Close all positions quickly!
Investing, the most important thing---stay away from idiots.
They will ask you to increase the position and get on board during a pump, and they will also guide you to cut loss during a Bear Market.
Seeing some tables and data experts in the crypto world, Cryptocurrency Trading, predicting next year's bull run.
Do you remember, he in 21, predicted the eternal Bull Market... Unfortunately, the witnesses have all left the crypto world.
According to the dot plot, the Fed is expected to cut 100 basis points within the year, which means there are still 50 basis points to be cut. The expected rate cut next year is 100 basis points. If it comes true, the bull is highly likely to come.
The Fed cuts interest rates, the dollar weakens, funds will flow into other assets, Favourable Information gold, Bitcoin and other assets, of course, some assets are definitely not Favourable Information, it's simple, who would do things that don't make money?
Stay awake, don't be silly, and don't be swayed by the mainstream voices. Your money, your call, others won't pick up the tab for your losses.
Whether next year will be a bull market or not is not important. The core issue is whether you have already gotten on board or not.
Ignore all kinds of chaotic voices online.
Information is not unimportant, but the cost of spreading rumors is too low, there are too many scammers, and ordinary people simply cannot identify them, so they don’t bother to look and just hold onto the coins.
#BTC

BTC is retracing the previous Bull Market trend, will this big Bull Market rise to 100K?
The reason for the start of this bull market:
1. Fed rate cut
On the early morning of September 19th Beijing time, the Fed started a radical interest rate cut, the first one in four years, and directly dropped 50BP, which exceeded the expectations of many. BTC quickly surged and broke through the $62,000 mark.
2. Gold big pump
After the Fed's rate cut, Bitcoin also experienced a big pump, breaking through $2600 and gaining $540 so far this year, the best performance since 1979. Investors' risk aversion is high, and digital gold BTC is also pumping alongside gold.
3.Ethereum Rebound
Recently, Ethereum has rebounded, which has brought vitality to the entire ecosystem and improved market sentiment. All sectors are pumping, which also plays an important role in maintaining Bitcoin prices.
4. Harris publicly announced support for the encryption industry for the first time
Harris stated at a fundraising event in New York yesterday that if elected, he will encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets, while protecting our consumers and investors. This is the first time Harris, as a Democratic presidential candidate, has commented on cryptocurrency. The encryption industry has always praised Harris.
The world's second largest economies collectively announced interest rate cuts.
A certain Eastern country announced a series of loose economic policies on September 24, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and a reduction in the Interest Rate of existing home loans. At the same time, innovative policy tools were introduced to support the development of the stock market, with the aim of stimulating economic growth and boosting market confidence.
Specifically, a certain eastern country announced a 2-point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. In addition, a 500 billion yuan funding plan has been launched to support stock market investments, causing the Shanghai Composite Index to pump by 4.15% on the same day and boosting global market sentiment.
The BTC market responded positively to the news, but the increase was limited.
After the interest rate cut, the market's sensitivity to macro policies has dropped a lot, but in fact, there are still several important events this week that will have an impact on the market.
One is the speeches of various officials of the Federal Reserve, which have been throughout this week and can directly affect the market's expectations for subsequent interest rate cuts.
Second, Thursday night's final second-quarter GDP data, as well as speeches by Powell and ECB President Lagarde.
Lastly, there is Friday's PCE inflation data. Although inflation is no longer the main factor affecting the magnitude of rate cuts, this is still the first inflation data released after the rate cut. The market has not completely forgotten the risk of inflation rebound, so we should follow this.
On the whole, the macro events of this week have had a mild impact on the market, which is also the reason why I expect the cryptocurrency market to maintain a rising trend after the interest rate cut. I am still hopeful for BTC to break through 65,000 this week.
BTC is retracing the previous Bull Market trend, hold on!
#BTC

"AltCoin peak season is coming, and four major Favourable Information are coming!"

In the world of Crypto Assets, new opportunities are quietly emerging.

First of all, CZ's release is like a stabilizer, injecting strong confidence into the entire crypto market. Like a beacon in the dark, it illuminates the way forward and makes everything move in a positive direction.

Secondly, Harris openly supports Crypto Assets, which is undoubtedly a shot in the arm. The industry is instantly jubilant, as if seeing a bright future and full of expectation for the development of Crypto Assets.

Thirdly, the Federal Reserve has announced a major plan to drop 50 basis points in interest rates in November. This move has created an excellent environment for the rise of altcoins, like a breath of spring, bringing new vitality to the market.

Fourthly, FTX launched a billion-dollar reflux plan. A large amount of funds is expected to flow into the market, providing strong impetus for the rise of AltCoins.
#BTC