Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

After the ETH merge, the outlook for Pectra upgrade is expected to be launched early next year.
Vitalik Buterin believes that the merger is the most important event since the launch of Ethereum, which has been long-awaited and not easy to come by, transitioning from (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS). Now, as a Proof of Stake system, Ethereum has been running stably for nearly 2 years, but there are still some important areas that need improvement.
In Vitalik Buterin's view, one of the main goals for Ethereum in the future is to reduce the time it takes to complete transactions. Currently, it takes about 15 minutes for Ethereum to complete a transaction, which is a frustrating latency for Ethereum and may lead to network congestion.
Vitalik Buterin suggested exploring solutions like 'single slot finality' to significantly reduce transaction times, making Ethereum more competitive and improving the overall user experience. He has previously proposed the idea of single slot finality, pointing out that the current Ethereum blocks need 64 to 95 slots to 'finalize,' but there is a technology that can reduce the finalization time to a single slot (about 16 seconds).
Vitalik Buterin is also exploring the possibility of allowing more people to participate in staking on the Ethereum network. He pointed out that the current requirement of staking 32 ETH is too high for many individuals who want to participate in staking. He suggests lowering the minimum stake amount to 1 ETH to enable more people to contribute to the security and governance of the Ethereum network.
This will also help further decentralize Ethereum and reduce the risk of a single entity gaining excessive control.
For this, Vitalik Buterin proposed three possible solutions, including improving the signature aggregation protocol, introducing the Orbit committee mechanism, implementing a two-layer stake system, these improvements can enhance network efficiency, attract more independent validators, while balancing the Decentralization and security of the system.
On the other hand, Vitalik Buterin also emphasized that by implementing 'single secret leader election' encryption technology, Ethereum can be protected from attacks, which will make it more difficult for attackers to disrupt the Ethereum network.
In addition, Vitalik Buterin suggested that the resistance capability of the Ethereum protocol to quantum computing threats should be explored, which may pose a significant challenge in the future. Other areas to explore include increasing the statutory threshold and strengthening the recovery capability in the face of a 51% attack.
The upgrade of Pectra, which will be launched in the first quarter of 2025, has been confirmed by the core developers of Ethereum last month to be split into two phases to ensure a smoother launch and reduce the risk of errors or vulnerabilities during network operation. After the breakup with V, she also started to focus on the ETH ecosystem! It seems that women only affect the speed of drawing swords!
#BTC #ETH

encryption world, why hope for Trump to win
The upcoming US presidential election on November 5 has entered a white-hot stage. Former US President and Republican candidate Trump, who has publicly supported Crypto Assets many times this year, is believed by the market to bring a relaxed regulatory policy to the encryption industry and boost the market pump if he wins, thus gaining strong support from people in the crypto world.
Trump economic adviser: Trump may continue to support strong dollar policy
However, Scott Bessent, a top candidate for the position of Chief Economic Advisor and Treasury Secretary in the Trump administration, stated over the weekend in an interview with the Financial Times that if Trump ultimately wins, he may continue the 'strong dollar policy' that the United States has had for decades, which could limit dollar-denominated risk assets, including BTC.
Trump will not deliberately devalue the dollar; he will support the dollar as a reserve currency.
Reserve currencies can fluctuate or pump with the market, and I believe that as long as there are good economic policies, the US dollar will naturally be strong.
My overall view is that he is still a free trader. At the same time, Bessant also commented on Trump's earlier proposed plan to impose tariffs of up to 20% on imported goods, stating that the plan will eventually be weakened in discussions with US trade partners.
Trump's chances of winning have risen to 54.1%
Although Bessent believes that Trump's economic policies after taking office may to some extent restrict the pump of Cryptocurrency, according to the latest data from the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket, the market's bet on Trump's chances of winning has already opened up with the Democratic candidate Biden, with Trump's approval rating reaching 54.1%, while Biden/Harris has currently dropped to 45.2%.
#BTC

Crypto world heavyweight! FTX compensation is imminent, 5 key information you should pay attention to!
The compensation process of FTX has made a qualitative progress. FTX will use the assets recovered since the bankruptcy application, up to a maximum of 16.5 billion US dollars, to compensate the bondholders.
You must be clear about the following five points:
1. Contents of the bankruptcy plan
The team led by John J. Ray proposed it on May 7th this year and was approved for the voting stage on June 25th. It was officially passed on October 7th. The plan is to first use asset recovery to compensate customers, and then to pay potential competitive claims from government regulatory agencies.
2. The significance of the approved plan and the effective time
After approval, FTX will compensate 98% of users within 60 days of the plan taking effect. However, approval of the plan does not mean it will take effect. The expected effective date may be October 31, or it may be delayed until early 2025 due to the motion to establish a compensation reserve fund.
3. Advance compensation for users and related compensation funds
Advance compensation to users: 98% of users are covered in a retroactive manner, covering customers who held $50,000 or less in funds at the exchange when FTX went bankrupt.
Total Compensation Fund: The estimated recoverable, cash-equivalent, and distributable total asset value is between $14.5 billion and $16.3 billion.
Compensation method: It will not be paid in full at once. It is expected to compensate approximately 1.1 billion US dollars to 98% of users (users with debt amounts less than 50,000 US dollars) within the year, and the remaining amount is expected to be paid between the first quarter and second quarter of 2025.
Compensation Standard: According to the dollar value of the creditor's claim at the time of bankruptcy in November 2022, it will be compensated in cash. 98% of the creditors are expected to receive a compensation ratio of 118%; the remaining creditors will receive a compensation ratio of 100% and time value compensation.
4. Attitude of Creditors
Approximately 94.48% of the creditors voted in favor of the plan, with a total debt value of about 6.83 billion US dollars. However, some creditors, including representatives of the largest creditor group FTX, opposed it, hoping to compensate directly in coin, arguing that the coin price is pumping, and compensating in USD value would shrink and could face substantial tax payments.
5. Refund of Compensation Funds
Considering that FTX-related claims have already been circulating in the market and a large number of original claimants have traded their claims, it is expected that it will be difficult for the funds to flow back. Well-known claimants estimate that this proportion may reach about half, but even if some funds flow back, it may also boost the market sentiment.
#BTC

As scheduled, BTC pumped through 66000.
In the analysis of the past two days, we have been strongly bullish. After yesterday's article, we soon received good news, with a large bullish candle directly taking down the 64000 resistance level. It broke through the $66000 mark in the evening, reaching as high as 66600, and is currently experiencing a small pullback.
Before each presidential election in the United States, there is always a big wave of pump, coupled with the increasingly fierce shooting and preparedness competitions of various countries, as well as the global interest rate cuts indirectly driving the market pump. The future is promising, but also remember to take profits at high levels in time, let the profits continue to soar, and be fearless of any risks.
Today's market analysis: From the Candlestick perspective, BTC is on a downtrend on the hourly chart, while it is still pumping on the 4-hour chart (if it cannot maintain the pump or sideways trend at a high level, it will enter a downtrend at 16:00). The 12-hour and daily candlestick charts are both showing a pump trend (especially the pump on the daily candlestick chart just started 2 days ago, and there is a high probability of consolidation followed by a rise to 70,000). The intraday resistance level is 68,000, and the support level is 64,000 USD. A pullback after reaching a high is normal and is for a better pump.

In the last bull market, you should dream and believe that blockchain will change the world. The market gave you memes and hopes, like Myr0people, Pepe, Bome, dogs, Shiba Inu, etc., which have all experienced different degrees of pumps today, with Bome experiencing the largest pump.
Everyone must remember, when the wind comes, memes will definitely be at the forefront, and only a few VC coins can rise. Now everyone's Consensus is shifting towards memes, so don't go against the big trend.
The current situation in the Secondary Market is quite difficult! Many people's Spot are trapped at 50% or even more. If you want to quickly recover your cost, you can join the meme group to search for hundredfold meme coins and earn some USDT for a wealthy year!
#BTC

People are willing to gamble on meme for a simple reason, the on-chain meme, pepe is now 4 billion, neiro 800 million.
If the initial valuation is 1 million US dollars, pepe is 4000 times, 800 times.
The infrastructure for listing on the exchange, let's not talk about the continuous fall after listing. The online valuation is over 1 billion, even in the altcoin bull run, is there still a 10x increase?
Odds issue.
MEME is easy to rug, but can only be used with small capital.
Those infrastructure projects that have attracted large investments Slump by 50% can be even more damaging.
That's why people like to play small Market Cap memes.
Some brothers have also said that the industry relies solely on these things. Without a large market capitalization, how can we promote development and change the world?
As a sucker, you empathize too much with the project party.
When ETH's market capitalization grew 10,000 times in a few years, it didn't hinder it from changing the world.
If a project's Market Cap is low, it can't change the world, so don't expect it to really change the world.
#BTC

Reflections on the US election results and market
1. At present, it seems highly probable that Trump will eventually take office after the election.
2. The 50 basis point interest rate cut in September is a support from the Federal Reserve to the Democratic Party, which hinders Trump's path of promising interest rate cuts once he takes office. From the data and normal circumstances, a 25 basis point interest rate cut is already considered relatively aggressive.
3. According to the previous cycle, the US stock market will start to decline after a 3-week interest rate cut, but there is something different this time. The result of the next US presidential election will be announced on November 7th.
If Trump is elected, do you think the stock market will crash as soon as he takes office? Obviously, it probably won't.
4. Therefore, the US stock market will probably climb slowly, and there should be another wave in the stock market in the early days of Trump's presidency.
5. As long as the US stock market doesn't fall, the crypto world will slowly rise and pump.
#BTC

Brothers, To The Moon
I'm talking about #BTC

Analysis of the cryptocurrency market on October 14, 2024
1. Market Trend:
BTC oscillates downwards, altcoins generally fall. On-chain golden dog frequently emerges.
US stocks rise, strong US employment data eases concerns about economic downturn.
2. Market Focus:
1. The new public chain SUI has reached a new high, and APT follows the rise. SUI is similar to the previous SOL, with its market capitalization entering the top 10.
2. The fan coins CHZ, OG, PSG and others have risen. When fan coins rise, the overall market will usually adjust.
3. On-chain dogs such as spx, goat, mini, retardio, harrypotterbitcoin, etc., have soared to new highs. Spx is the flagship of the murad concept, with a Market Cap close to 1 billion USD. Mini is part of internet memes culture, retardio belongs to the milady community. Goat is an AI-generated meme similar to turbo, with investment from a16z, reaching a Market Cap of 100 million USD in just one or two days.
#BTC

Get ready to embrace exciting market trends in the coming months:
1. BTC pullback has ended, the monthly trend line has successfully touched the support, and it has stabilized, ready to welcome the second round of pump, with the goal of reaching a new all-time high.

2. Ethereum has entered the second half. With multiple positive factors such as ETF, ecological development, and positive deflation, its momentum will only increase. Just continue to wait patiently.
The main narrative of the 3. Bull Market remains AI, gaming, MEME, public chain, stake and RWA, and the rotation rhythm is still effective.
4. The overall market direction is still upward, stabilizing after a big rise, which is the best time to enter.
5. Avoid frequent portfolio turnover. Experience from previous bull runs tells me that abandoning chips bought at the bottom and chasing rising prices often results in the easiest losses during a bull run. Only when the wind comes can we dance gracefully.
#BTC

Do you understand the account of the crypto world? Many people don't understand Cryptocurrency Speculation even after half a lifetime.
1. If you have 1 million, rise 100%, then fall 50%, how much is left? The answer is 1 million.
2. If you have 1 million, fall 50% first, rise 50% later, how much is left? The answer is 750,000. If rise 50% first and then fall 50%, how much is left? The answer is 750,000.
If you have 1 million and earn a steady income of 30% per year, how much will you have left after 1 year? The answer is 1.3 million. How much will you have left after 2 years? The answer is 1.69 million.
What does the first two bills mean? It means that controlling the drawdown is always the first priority in stock trading. In real life, many people can achieve short-term profits of 100% or even 200%, but over a longer time period, as long as the drawdown exceeds 50%, they will eventually be drawn back to the original state. All efforts will be in vain!
What does the third bill indicate? It indicates that the stable Annual Percentage Rate is not inferior to the floating high yield, 30% per year is quite impressive! On this basis, with compound interest rise every year, the period is extended, and the returns are very considerable!
From the perspective of a stock market guru using data, why can Buffett become the God of Stocks?! It's not that he can double his money easily in the short term, but that he can consistently maintain a profit of over 20% over 47 years. Many people can achieve a profit of over 20% in the short term, but it's rare to maintain it for five or more years. So everyone should keep a calm mind, be down-to-earth, and always believe in the power of compound interest. How to follow compound interest, stay tuned for the next update!
The trend of the crypto world is full of uncertainty and challenges, but also contains potential opportunities. Investors should fully understand the relevant risks, keep calm and rational when participating in crypto world investments, and respond to market changes with a steady strategy!
#BTC

Several conclusions
① BTC will continue to pump, the next resistance is at 75000, and whether 75000 is the top or not depends on the pullback situation at that time.
② No matter how much BTC rises, there will be at least one significant pullback, at least exceeding 10,000 points (this marks the start of BTC's pullback), and then it will oscillate and pull back. The pullback position is unknown, but this major adjustment is a second opportunity to get on board and not miss out.
③ After the retracement ends, the last pump of this round's bull market will start (up to now, it can only be said that BTC has just entered the bull market, regained lost ground, and has not started a real bull market pump).
The future market of BTC is very clear. I always know the long-term follow on BTC, and I rarely go wrong in the long-term direction on BTC. I hope it helps you.
Alts market
Recently, the altcoin market has exploded as a meme in the AI L1 public chain zone.
Currently, Cross-Chain Interaction and RWA have not yet erupted, only needing lying in ambush.
Bull Market: You can riselying in ambush anything, and you can choose the one that has a banker, and holding it is the last word
#BTC

Zone rotation observation: the indices of various zones are currently fluctuating between 0.7 and 1.0, and there is no obvious zone effect as a whole. However, the market showed a general rise yesterday, and various currencies have strengthened. Especially, the currencies related to MEME and SOL ecology still have the most outstanding performance. Here are some recommended currencies worth following:
【MEME】zone: POPCAT, WIF, 1MBABYDOGE, NEIRO, MEW, BRETT
【RWA】Category: HIFI
【AI】zone: WLD, ARKM
【Oracle Machine】Sector: PHB
Blockchain Section: SUI, SAGA
【ETH Ecosystem】Section: CELO
【BTC ecosystem】Section: 1000RATS
【SOL Ecosystem】Section: WIF, POPCAT, NEIRO, 1MBABYDOGE, BRETT
【BNB Ecosystem】Section: BAKE
In terms of price comparison sorting, here are the Top 10 strong and weak currencies:
Strong currencies: AXL, ARKM, WIF, SAGA, REZ, SUI, PHB, ENA, HIFI, OP
Weak currencies: UNI, BNX, SUN, KEY, SUSHI, OM, CRV, MKR, TRX, UNFI
#BTC

Clearly, the pump signal has appeared, the final opportunity to get on board
$BTC has shown a very clear pump signal:
First of all, from the perspective of the relationship between volume and price, after $BTC fell below the low point of October 3 on October 10 and quickly recovered, it pumped with high volume yesterday, which is a typical spring effect and a clear signal of pump during the Bull Market period.
Secondly, from the perspective of Candlestick, the Candlestick formed a typical Morning Star pattern from October 9th to 11th, and the Bullish line on the right side is significantly larger than the Bearish line on the left side, both in terms of length and Trading Volume. This is also a clear pump signal.
Again, from the hourly Candlestick chart, $BTC easily broke through the resistance area and continued to trade at high volume during the pump, with very low Trading Volume during the pullback. This indicates that the previous Whipsaw was very thorough and there are very few floating chips in the market.
Long 2 $ETH , Long 3 $SOL also appeared morning star pattern.
In addition, a large number of alts have also emerged in the form of morning stars, including but not limited to $AVAX $SEI $OP $FET $ORDI $DYM etc.
This means a comprehensive market pump is coming, and now may be the last opportunity to get on board.

#本轮牛市将会是meme币大牛吗？ Three AltCoins can be configured for long term
meme tokens leading: $Neiro, the most eye-catching baby in the meme currently listed. Operation method: step-like pump, breaking the previous high each time and then pulling back to surge again, with heat, abundant Liquidity, high Volatility, pump again after each Sideways oscillation for a period of time.
The second coin: banana, one of the projects that can truly generate revenue in the crypto world, the officially announced reward is purchased from the Secondary Market, belonging to the TON ecosystem. A series of negative reactions brought about after the arrest of the TG founder, but there was no obvious follow-up decline.
Breaking through the consolidation range of several months in terms of form.
The third coin: Bigtime chain game zone leading, the bottom of the daily candlestick is rising, Market Cap is low, the technical pattern breaks through the bottom oscillation range, every time it leads the game zone to strengthen.
#BTC

How to identify blockchain Crypto Assets eyewash!
1. Some people say they will take you to Cryptocurrency Speculation for free, help you earn U, and ask you to download an unknown app for convenient communication, and then pump and dump (100% scam).
2. exchangeU contacted you, claiming to have insider information or promoting an unknown exchange, but immediately blocked you. 99% chance of being a scammer!!!
3, someone tells you, stakeBTC ETH SOL in some unknown Wallet or on-chain can make a fortune, stable pump, and reverse pump, 98% are scammers!!
4. Someone tells you that they are very accurate in watching the market and have a high winning rate in contract trading, but asks you to download an unknown APP for copy trading, or asks you to... Keep your eyes open! Contracts are only for gamblers, not for gods!!!
There are many more that I won't expose one by one. If you are uncertain in the crypto world, you can ask me. It's not troublesome or embarrassing, just ask if you don't understand. I will reply when I see it! Stay rational, what's often free is the most expensive!
#BTC

The non-farm and inflation data in the past two weeks, although not yet to the point of worrying about inflation, has already doomed half of the expectations of 'recession' and 'imminent rate cuts'.
Today's data on CME shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 84%, while the likelihood of no rate cut has actually decreased. Therefore, the market reaction last night was mediocre because the basic expectation didn't change much.
From a mid-term perspective, the expectations of recession and interest rate cuts have cooled down. The market now seems to be lost, unable to find a direction, waiting for a re-anchoring. The most crucial thing in the future is the direction after the interest rate cut, recession or rebound? The first interest rate cut is important, but the pace that follows is the key to determining whether the economy is improving.
Currently, concerns about recession have been temporarily eliminated, with inflation slightly exceeding expectations but not shaking the probability of a rate cut in November. The risk is small, and we can take a breather for now.
But don't forget, it's almost earnings season. Coupled with the uncertainty of the U.S. election, the stock market may have to wait for the financial reports to provide signals, to see whether it will perform strongly or weaken.
#BTC

The Federal Reserve is playing big this time.
1. As soon as it was announced that there would be no interest rate cut, the US dollar index skyrocketed, while the renminbi fell in response. This wave of exchange rate fluctuations has caused a lot of troubles for our foreign trade enterprises.
2. The decision of the Federal Reserve not only affects the Exchange Rate market, but also sends a chill through global stock markets. Investors are adjusting their strategies and risk aversion is rising, intensifying the volatility of global Capital Markets.
3. The decision not to lower interest rates means that the borrowing costs in the United States will remain high. This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to companies that rely on low-cost funds, as the increase in debt pressure and financing costs may curb corporate expansion.
4. The strong US dollar and the rise in import costs may result in Chinese consumers paying more for goods imported from the United States, increasing the cost of living and undoubtedly adding an additional burden to residents.
5. This move by the Federal Reserve also intensifies the depreciation pressure on the currencies of emerging market countries, increases the risk of capital outflows, and poses a new challenge to global financial stability.
6. In today's global economic integration, the policy direction of the Federal Reserve has a ripple effect on the whole body. Our policy makers need to closely follow and take timely measures to respond in order to ensure the smooth operation of our economy.
#BTC

Most professions and businesses in the world can be understood using trading strategies:
1. Work: The monthly trading success rate is extremely high, the profit-loss ratio is extremely low, similar to furrowing, the harder you work, the more you earn, luck has a very low impact on this field, and the choice is more important than effort;
2. Entrepreneurship: The success rate is very low, but the risk-reward ratio is very high, similar to borrowing money with 100X leverage to play MEME coins. If you lose, you may lose everything, but if you win (through acquisition or going public), you can achieve financial freedom directly. Luck carries a lot of weight in this field, and often hard work is not as important as choice.
3. Doing small business, self-media, KOL: the winning rate is moderate, the risk-reward ratio is very poor, but the benefit is the long tail, compound interest effect, similar to doing Arbitrage or OTC merchants. If you can persist for a long time, accumulate more and more word-of-mouth and users, then the risk-reward ratio and winning rate will slowly improve. Luck is equally important as effort in this field. You need to choose the right track and work doubly hard.
4. Trading: The win rate is unstable, the risk-reward ratio is unstable, and luck is far more important than hard work. Essentially, it is similar to starting a business with a small amount of money. If you trade with all your savings, then it is exactly the same as starting a business. It's 99 deaths and 1 survival. This field is where the "survivorship bias" is most evident.
Summary: Choosing to work, start a small business, engage in self-media, and become a KOL are suitable options for ordinary people. Even if luck is very bad, as long as they work hard and persist, they can obtain returns close to their efforts.
Choosing to start a business or trade full-time is a high-risk and unstable industry. If you can control the risk well, such as participating in the early stages of a startup but not going all in, or using a small amount of your own money to trade, then over time, the high-profit return will come to you one day, provided that you can tolerate multiple failures.
Looking back, some VCs only invest in angel rounds, and some traders go all in with only 1000u on a project. Essentially, they are all exchanging a large number of failed cases for a high return. Investing in 100 start-ups, 99 fail, but 1 successfully completes multiple rounds of financing and finally goes public. The 10% stake obtained by the early angel investors can bring more than 100 times the return.
And speculate MEME, dogecoin, each up to 1000U, even if 99 drop to zero, the loss is less than 100,000, but as long as there is a coin that increases by a hundred or a thousand times, wiping out 4-5 zeros in a row, it can bring 1-10 million in returns.
And in these processes, luck can greatly change the winning rate.
So, if you think you have been lucky, then control the risk and do something with a low winning rate but a very high risk-reward ratio, stick to it until you win. If you think you are always unlucky, then do something with a high winning rate, a very low risk-reward ratio but with cumulative effects, stick to it until it grows larger.
To achieve these successes, the only constant key quality is always:
Persist!
#BTC

Many people may have misconceptions about CPI data.
It is good if the inflation data is lower than expected. Its previous value is 2.5%. The expectation is 2.3%. The released value is 2.4%.
His current data. Is lower than the previous data. That is, inflation is being restrained. Overall, it is definitely Favourable Information. It just didn't meet people's expectations.
There's no need to worry, because after this CPI data, the Fed won't cut interest rates. It's impossible, don't be misled.
The Fed has already started the interest rate cut cycle. It will definitely cut rates several times within a year!! This is set in stone. Newbie, don't be misled.
How can the United States repay its debt of trillions of dollars without lowering interest rates here?
Most people's broad CPI, which is most followed, dropped, but it still increased slightly compared to market expectations, which is not considered a big issue. Personally, I think it's still decent. The monthly rate and core monthly rate of CPI are the same as last month, both slightly higher than expected. The core CPI annual rate has pumped a bit, but the magnitude of the pump is not high. Moreover, according to the recent inflation increase, it is the lowest in nearly three years. So fundamentally, the data is not too bad.
From the details of inflation, housing and food saw the highest increase in September, with food not being considered as core inflation. Moreover, the amount of inflation increase is not significant, and based on the current inflation data, the probability of the Fed changing its interest rate cut strategy in November is also low, with a 25 basis point rate cut in November being the most likely.
This inflation change is not enough to make the Fed change its established strategy, and a 25 basis point interest rate cut is already expected for November, so this inflation data and its results will not have a significant impact on the market.
#BTC