Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

$7 UNI: are you chasing the rally or sitting it out?
Look at the surface first: it has gone parabolic, but is starting to pull back.
From the $2.3-$3 lows in early June, UNI has produced a steep primary uptrend. It has risen 30-50% over the past week and more than 70% over the past month, touching an intraday high of $7.48 today before falling back to around $7. The weekly chart has just broken above and confirmed the upper boundary of the 4.90 mid-term range, and the mid-term target of 7.56 has already been reached. Daily RSI has surged to around 80, while MACD momentum is slowing—the trend is still bullish, but the short-term rise has indeed been too fast.
First: UNI is no longer a “governance token”; it has become a “money-printing machine.”
In December 2025, the UNIfication proposal passed, officially turning on the fee switch and permanently burning 100 million UNI from the treasury in one go. After that, protocol fees have continued to buy back and burn UNI through the TokenJar/Firepit mechanism.
In late July, daily burn funds jumped directly from $114k to $325k
In early September, single-day burns set a record: 184k UNI worth more than $1.15 million
Second: Robinhood Chain has launched, opening up the tokenized-asset sector.
Uniswap v4 has expanded to multiple chains, including Robinhood Chain. After launch, it quickly captured substantial tokenized stock trading volume—on-chain stocks of Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia are all trading on Uniswap.
In early September, Uniswap’s daily DEX trading volume surged to the $3 billion level, with an extremely high share.
Previously, Uniswap could only trade cryptocurrencies; now it can trade stocks, bonds, and RWAs
This is a brand-new trillion-dollar market
Every transaction generates fees, which buy back and burn UNI
Third: the price has risen, but institutions are still calling it cheap.
RWA and tokenized stocks offer the biggest incremental upside potential, and Robinhood Chain has already proven that this route can directly generate revenue. Uniswap’s DEX market share is not declining but rising, while TVL remains stable at $3-4 billion.
The institutional logic is simple: if Uniswap is DeFi’s “New York Stock Exchange,” then UNI is the exchange’s “equity,” and that “equity” is continuously being bought back and burned.
You can judge the bull-bear battle yourself
On one side:
Fee switch turned on, with the protocol continuously buying back and burning UNI and daily burns setting a record of 184k UNI
Robinhood Chain launched, opening up the tokenized stock/RWA sector
Standard Chartered targets $100, while Bitwise has included it in its tokenized basket
Weekly chart breaks above and confirms the 4.90 range, with the mid-term trend pointing upward
Daily DEX volume at $3 billion, with Uniswap holding an extremely high share
On the other side:
From $2.3-$3 to $7.48, the short-term gain is too large and profit-taking needs to be absorbed
Daily RSI has surged to 80, while MACD momentum is slowing
Strong resistance at 7.48-7.55; failure to break through after three attempts could trigger a pullback
Macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC, with rate-hike expectations suppressing risk assets
Resistance above: 7.48-7.55 → 7.8 → 8.18-8.2 → 11.5
Support below: 6.86 → 6.5 → 6.23-6.3 → 6.0-5.8
Trading strategy
Mid-term long position:
Wait for a pullback to the 6.23-6.50 range, then go long in batches after a high-volume stabilization. The first target is 7.50-7.55, with a break above targeting 8.00-8.20. Set the stop-loss below 5.80.
Aggressive short-term trading:
Sell high and buy low in the 7.00-7.20 range, though the room is limited. If it breaks below 6.86 and the rebound is weak, cautiously try a short position targeting 6.50, with a stop-loss at 7.2.
Long-term believers:
Blindly dollar-cost average below $6. Uniswap is one of the strongest assets in DeFi, and its fundamentals have changed completely after the fee switch. For 2027-2030, the target is $15-$30 or even higher—the bet is on tokenized assets plus the deflationary narrative.
UNI is now a classic case of “explosive fundamentals, but too much short-term upside”—
99% of people see a 70% rise and think “it’s too late,” but they fail to see the $1.15 million in daily burns, fail to see that Robinhood Chain has just launched, and fail to see Standard Chartered calling for $100.
The day UNI pulls back to $6.5 and holds, you will realize:
It wasn’t that UNI rose too fast—it’s that you always waited until after the rise was over before trying to chase it.
What is your UNI cost basis?
At $7, are you brave enough to chase or will you wait for a pullback? #美国8月非农超预期 #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 $BTC $ETH $UNI

Dear, Moonlight has been researching something pretty interesting these past two days:
the Agent from @MossAI_Official
Especially if you also often research trading strategies, you may have many ideas that seem perfectly clear in your head, but once you actually try to turn them into a program, you get stuck
You have to write code, adjust parameters, deploy...
In the end, all the time spent researching strategies goes into these things
Moss makes this whole process much simpler!
You can directly tell AI your trading logic
and have it organize everything into a strategy first
Then check the entry, exit, position sizing, and other parameters yourself
Once confirmed, you can create it as an Agent and let it run on its own
I think this is quite friendly for people who enjoy researching trading but do not really want to deal with code
And now there is also an Agent Marketplace
If you create an Agent yourself, you can tokenize it on-chain
If others like your strategy, they can also mint the corresponding Agent Share
Conversely, if you do not want to create a strategy yourself for now, you can go directly to the Marketplace to check out Agents created by others
I quite like this feeling of “looking first, researching first, and deciding later”
Especially since you can view an Agent’s strategy and execution records, rather than just looking at a single screenshot of its returns
For now, though, I am mainly focused on testing
When it comes to trading strategies, no matter how impressive their historical performance looks, you still need to make your own risk assessment
If you are also interested in the AI Agent + Trading direction, you can take a look
👉
I’m planning to test a few more Agents and share which ones are worth researching further with everyone later.

Interesting: 80.3% of the total $BTC supply is still untracked.
Even with ETFs, public companies, governments, and funds holding large amounts of Bitcoin, most of the supply still sits outside clearly identified wallets.
The institutional Bitcoin story is growing, but it still represents only part of the full picture.

Exactly. Damn, cat coins are popular across the entire universe. Robinhood launched cashcat, 200m. Base launched Basecat, 80m. Sol launched Cate, 80m. Didn’t BSC launch Hakimi a long time ago? BSC was one season ahead. Hakimi Hakimi, Hakimi mung beans from north to south.

ZEC at $1,160—are you chasing it?
Look past the surface first: it has gone crazy, but do you dare get in?
It rose 13-16% in 24 hours, touching an intraday high of 1,195, with its market cap nearing $20 billion and breaking into the market's top ten. From the August low, this rally has nearly doubled. The EMAs are in a bullish alignment, ADX has reached 50, and trend strength is maxed out—a strong trend, but already scorching hot.
First: Grayscale's ETF has been live for two weeks, and institutions are buying with real money.
On August 25, the first U.S. spot ETF for a privacy coin—the Grayscale ZCSH—officially launched. In two weeks, its AUM climbed from $300 million to $414 million, with net inflows exceeding $100 million.
Institutions previously couldn't buy ZEC due to compliance issues, but now they can allocate with one click. Money from pension funds, hedge funds, and family offices is pouring in through the ETF channel.
Bitwise's Matt Hougan and Alliance DAO's Qiao Wang have publicly endorsed it, placing ZEC alongside BTC as a core holding.
Second: $34.5 million in short positions were liquidated, and the squeeze has only just begun.
On September 4, ZEC broke above $1,000, sustainably holding four digits for the first time since its 2016 launch. About $34.5 million in short positions across the market were liquidated that day, creating a textbook short-squeeze rally.
Arthur Hayes previously called ZEC a “5x potential coin.” Now that the price is actually rising, FOMO money is starting to chase it. As long as shorts aren't dead, the bulls won't stop.
Third: the June vulnerability has already been forgotten by the market.
In June, a soundness vulnerability emerged in the Orchard pool, sending ZEC crashing from $680 straight to $250, a 60% drop. The entire market cried, “Privacy coins are going to zero.”
And then? An emergency patch went live within 48 hours, the Ironwood upgrade was completed in July, and developers confirmed there was no evidence of actual exploitation. The market bounced from $250 to $400, then from $400 to $680, and now to $1,160.
The bulls and bears face off—you decide
On one side:
Grayscale's ETF attracted more than $100 million in two weeks, opening the institutional channel
Arthur Hayes, Bitwise executives, and Alliance DAO have publicly endorsed it
Broke above $1,000 on September 4, liquidating $34.5 million in shorts, with the squeeze continuing
Market cap nearing $20 billion, with liquidity rising rapidly
On the other side:
Daily RSI has surged to 84-87, historically overbought
An intraday range of $170 makes chasing the price prone to getting shaken out
CPI on September 10 and FOMC on September 16 create major macro uncertainty
Potential EU MiCA restrictions on privacy coins have not been eliminated
Resistance above: 1,180-1,200 → 1,250-1,300 → 1,400
Support below: 1,080-1,100 → 1,000-1,025 (strong support) → 850-880
Trading strategies
For conservative bulls:
Wait for a pullback to 1,000-1,025 or 1,080-1,100 before entering, with a stop-loss at 980 and a first target of 1,250-1,300.
For aggressive short-term traders:
If the price stalls and volume contracts around 1,160, try a small short position to capture a pullback, targeting 1,100-1,050, with a stop-loss at 1,200.
For long-term believers:
ZEC is the only privacy coin with a U.S. spot ETF, combining regulatory cleanliness, institutional access, and the halving narrative (November 2028). Pullbacks are opportunities to add.
ZEC is now seeing a three-way convergence of “narrative + capital + technicals”—
99% of people see a daily RSI of 87 and think “it's about to crash,” but they don't see that Grayscale's ETF is still attracting money, institutional heavyweights are still calling for it, and the shorts haven't been fully cleared out.
The day $1,200 breaks through, you'll realize:
It wasn't that ZEC was no good—it was that you got off before every breakout.
What is your cost basis for ZEC?
At $1,160, do you dare chase it?#美国8月非农超预期 #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 $ETH $BTC $ZEC

If you understand this tweet, you can ride today’s green candle.

A whale called out a $100,000 target for $ZEC ,
At first, everyone thought it was just a joke...

A lot of the time, it’s not that I can’t see the long-term value—I’m just not very willing to spend time waiting for it.
After doing too much short-term trading, I always want to see results faster. I’ve gotten used to entering today and checking the price movement tomorrow, and as a result, I’m becoming increasingly impatient when it comes to researching whether something is truly worth holding for the long term.
Put simply, it’s not that I don’t know how to invest based on value—I’ve just been spoiled by the pace of short-term trading.
This is a habit I genuinely want to change gradually.
From now on, I’ll spend less time watching whether prices rise today and more time looking at the project itself, its fundamentals, and its long-term rationale.
After all, money can be earned gradually. If I never change my investment habits, switching between however many assets will ultimately make no difference.

It’s really competitive now to open a blue check for others on X. Just to keep track: as of yesterday, I’ve made RMB 1,200 from this service so far this month, mainly from private traffic converted through Xianyu before. I really can’t compete with you all on X…
It’s also completely transparent now. Everyone knows the cost of opening one, and you can find tutorials all over X with a quick search.

Just one week ago, the suspected institution with the largest HYPE holdings linked to a16z spent 66.4 million USDC to purchase 816,000 HYPE at an average price of $81.3, $HYPE and has started buying again today: 8 hours ago, it transferred 13.05 million USDC into Hyperliquid to purchase HYPE via TWAP. Their current purchased and staked HYPE holdings have reached 5.201 million ($445 million), with an average purchase price of approximately $67.2. Their unrealized profit is approximately $95.18 million.

Six-Year High Correlation—Bitcoin’s “Digital Gold” Narrative Has Data Behind It for the First Time
Bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation with gold—+0.50.
What was that number at the beginning of 2026? Barely above zero.
Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100—-0.30, a one-year low.
Put in plain English: Over the past three months, Bitcoin and gold have been on the same boat, while tech stocks have been on another.
These are data from Bitwise Asset Management and Bloomberg. A research report from Grayscale also confirmed the same conclusion.
The “digital gold” narrative has been repeated for over a decade, but this is the first time it has statistical data supporting it.
Why now?
Three words—the dollar is rotting.
On August 18, the U.S. federal government’s total outstanding public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time.
The average American is carrying $116,000 in debt. The national debt is increasing by approximately $7.9 billion every day.
On the same day, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would increase the size of its long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion, more than doubling it.
How did the market react?
The dollar fell, gold rose, and Bitcoin rose.
Bitwise Head of Research André Dragosch put it this way: “When macro forces truly come into play, investors are increasingly making less of a distinction between Bitcoin and gold. In these situations, Bitcoin has recently looked like an amplified version of gold.”
Grayscale put it even more directly: Bitcoin is behaving more like a hedge against debasement than like a tech stock.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has risen from zero at the beginning of the year to 0.50 now, more than doubling.
When was the last time correlation was this high?
2020.
That was the year global central banks went on a money-printing spree after the COVID-19 pandemic.
The two correlation peaks—2020 and 2026—happen to coincide with periods when governments massively intervened in the macro landscape.
This is not a coincidence.
It is capital voting with real money: confidence in the dollar is deteriorating, while hard assets are rising.
But—
Fidelity Digital Assets warned in a research report: The four-year cycle theory is still in effect.
Based on historical patterns, if the cycle remains valid, the bottom of the next bear market could arrive around November 2026.
Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn’s base case: a bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000.
On one hand, the “digital gold” narrative is being validated by data; on the other, the four-year cycle is sounding an alarm.
Which one should we believe?
Bitwise’s conclusion is quite interesting: “Bitcoin was priced as a risk asset throughout its first fifteen years. If this correlation trend continues, the next fifteen years could be very different.”
Translation: In the past, Bitcoin was tech stocks’ sidekick. In the future, it could be an amplified version of gold.
A 0.50 correlation is not high—but the direction is right.
When gold rises, BTC follows. When gold falls, BTC follows too. But BTC’s volatility is 1.43 times that of gold.
When gold rises 5%, BTC rises 22%. When gold falls 7%, BTC actually falls less.
That is what “amplified version of gold” means—same direction, but greater elasticity.
It rises more fiercely, but does not necessarily fall as badly.
Isn’t this exactly the kind of script you imagined when you bought BTC back then?
The phrase “digital gold” used to be a slogan, a belief, and something the community used to promote trades.
Now it is 0.50—statistically significant correlation, the highest in six years.
The narrative has data behind it for the first time.
The rest is up to time. #美国8月非农超预期 #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 $BTC $XAU $XAUT

The quiet period is the loudest moment—whether rates are hiked in September will be decided next Friday
The September 11 CPI may be the single most important data point for the crypto market in 2026.
Bar none.
On August 27, the probability of a rate hike was 36.5%.
On August 28, Waller spoke at Jackson Hole, and the probability surged from 35% to 70% within a single day.
On September 3, Waller came out and said he “leans toward keeping rates unchanged,” sending the probability back down to 50%.
On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls were released—162k jobs were added, triple expectations. The probability climbed above 60%.
Within one week, the market ran back and forth between “hike” and “no hike.”
Ridiculous? Absolutely.
Even more ridiculous—the decision is due next week, and the market is still guessing.
Why is this CPI so important?
Because the Federal Reserve has entered its quiet period.
Starting September 5, all officials will fall silent. No one will give you any more signals or hints.
Only the data itself remains.
An investment manager at IFM Investors put it bluntly: If inflation has not shown a convincing decline, the Fed must act—otherwise, the credibility Waller just established at Jackson Hole will be damaged.
You heard that right.
Whether rates are hiked in September is no longer an economic question. It is a test of whether Waller’s credibility will be upheld.
What did Waller say at Jackson Hole?
Eight words: “There’s still work to do.”
He made it clear: The 2% inflation target is “steadfast and non-negotiable.” Current financial conditions are not restrictive. The underlying trend in inflation has not materially improved.
How did the market translate this?
“I’m going to hike rates—get ready.”
The probability surged from 35% to 70%.
What answer will the CPI ultimately give?
Wall Street started fighting among itself.
BofA Securities: Core CPI rose 0.22% month over month in August, with the annual rate climbing to 3.4%—hot enough to support a rate hike.
Citigroup: Core CPI rose just 0.184% month over month, with the annual rate falling to 2.3%—cool enough to keep rates unchanged.
The two forecasts differ by just 0.036 percentage points.
0.036 percentage points.
That is like the difference between cutting a pizza into 12 slices and cutting it into 13.
But one of these figures points to a rate hike, while the other points to continued patience.
The Fed’s September 15–16 meeting is riding on this 0.036.
BTC is now hovering around $80k.
September has historically been unfriendly to BTC—since 2013, BTC has fallen in 8 of 13 Septembers, with an average return of -3%.
But this time is different.
Soft CPI + no rate hike → BTC surges to $85k+.
Hot CPI + confirmed rate hike → BTC retests $76k or even $72k.
The two directions differ by $10k.
At Jackson Hole, Waller said he was committing to “discipline,” not a specific decision.
But the market has already placed everything on next Friday.
Discipline? The market wants an answer.
And only the CPI can provide it.
The quiet period is the loudest moment.
When everyone stops talking, the numbers start screaming.
September 11, CPI is released.
September 15–16, the FOMC decision is revealed.
Will BTC surge to $85k or fall back to $72k?
Next week, everything will be revealed.#美国8月非农超预期 #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 $BTC $ETH $SOL

15 years ago today, Bitcoin was $8
Me 15 years ago :

The market reaction was still pretty strong after yesterday’s nonfarm payrolls data came out. But looking at things this morning, the probability of a rate hike has actually fallen, because Trump is pressuring the Fed: “If you don’t cut rates, I’ll come after you.” So have the positive and negative effects canceled each other out?
Waller also said before that nonfarm payrolls are not the deciding factor. The biggest impact will still depend on the August CPI release. That will be the most important factor.

A heavy liquidity pocket is building below $BTC .
The biggest clusters on this map sit around the $60K–$50K zone, which makes that area worth watching if volatility picks up.
Now the real question is what catalyst could trigger the next major move.
For me, the next big news event matters just as much as the chart.

A meme community from Japan has officially entered PHASE II. Developed by the original team behind Ethereum’s 114514, RH114514 ($114514) has relaunched on Robinhood Chain and is now beginning its journey into the global market.🏹🔥 114514 originated in Japanese internet meme culture, and this time, the community is bringing that culture on-chain. FROM JAPAN TO THE WORLD. 🌏 🔗 Official RH114514

The top five European leagues have recently kicked off, and exciting matches really are coming one after another. Those who understand the joy of watching soccer know exactly what I mean⚽ I believe many friends are like me, following competitions such as the Premier League, La Liga, and Serie A, but unable to find a place to watch live scores or enjoy some match-viewing perks. If you want to see live match updates and real-time scores, you can check out👇 ⁠ F88 Star:⁠ ⁠

ARB at $0.134: Are you fearful or greedy?
Look at the surface first: bullish catalysts are piled high, yet the price hasn’t surged.
It rose 45%-55% over the past 7 days and 60%-70% over the past month, rebounding 85%+ from the absolute bottom of 0.0707 in late June—but after the H1 report was released in early September, the price fell from 0.142 to 0.134 and has stalled.
Once bullish catalysts are priced in, they can become bearish. Short-term profit-taking is underway, and the major September 16 unlock is still ahead.
First: The H1 report is impressive, but the price has already priced it in ahead of time.
The Arbitrum Foundation released its H1 2026 progress report, and the data is indeed solid:
The DAO generated $6.19 million in revenue over six months, with a gross margin of over 97%
Processed 478 million transactions
Average monthly stablecoin transfers exceeded $70 billion
RWA market capitalization in the Arbitrum ecosystem reached $1 billion
But ARB rose from 0.07 to 0.142, gaining 100%+—haven’t these bullish catalysts already been fully priced in by the market?
Second: Robinhood Chain is a real catalyst, but the September 16 unlock is also a real risk.
Robinhood Chain is based on Arbitrum Orbit, and licensing fees in July already accounted for 35% of the DAO’s monthly revenue. This is the strongest narrative behind ARB’s current rebound—from an “ordinary L2” into infrastructure for bringing TradFi on-chain.
But the problem is—on September 16, 92.63 million ARB will be unlocked.
At 0.134, that is worth approximately $12.4 million, equivalent to 1.4% of the circulating supply.
The September 11 CPI data, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, plus the ARB unlock—three events stacked together. If CPI comes in hot, the FOMC is hawkish, and the unlock triggers selling, ARB will most likely fall back to 0.10-0.11.
Third: The macro window has entered a “high-risk period,” and altcoins are always cannon fodder.
BTC is currently oscillating around $79.6k, having just fallen back from $82k. Nonfarm payrolls were relatively strong, rate-cut expectations have cooled, and the probability of a September rate hike is fluctuating between 40% and 60%.
September 11 CPI + September 15 FOMC
If inflation remains sticky and employment stays strong: the dollar will strengthen, and high-beta altcoins like ARB will be hit directly.
If the data weakens and rate-cut expectations rise: BTC will rebound, and ARB will benefit as well.
The bulls and bears are facing off—you decide
On one side:
H1 revenue of $6.19 million, with a 97% gross margin and solid data
Robinhood Chain contributes 35% of revenue, with real adoption growing
RWA market capitalization of $1 billion+, with TradFi partners continuing to increase
An 85% rebound from the 0.07 bottom, with the trend having turned bullish
On the other side:
The September 16 unlock of 92.63 million ARB will add another 1.4% of selling pressure to the circulating supply
The price has fallen back from 0.142, meaning the bullish catalysts were priced in ahead of time
The September 11-16 macro window is high-risk, with CPI and the FOMC clustered together
Low weekend liquidity, with futures volume far exceeding spot volume, making cascading stop-losses more likely during a pullback
Resistance above: 0.138-0.142 (recent high) → 0.145-0.155
Support below: 0.128-0.13 → 0.12-0.122 → 0.105-0.11
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If a long upper wick or stalled momentum appears around 0.138-0.142, consider a short position targeting 0.130-0.128, with a stop-loss at 0.145. Wait for 0.128-0.130 to stabilize on a pullback—holding above it on the 4H timeframe, followed by a contraction in volume and then a bullish candle with expanding volume—before going lightly long, with a stop-loss below 0.122.
Accumulate in two batches at 0.128-0.130, and reduce positions in two batches at 0.138-0.142. Reduce positions and stay on the sidelines before September 11-16; don’t gamble on the CPI+FOMC direction.
Long-term believers:
Use 0.10-0.11 as an extreme level for regular accumulation. The Orbit+RWA narrative is real, but tokenomics (continuous unlocks) mean ARB is destined not to be the kind of low-float asset that can casually double.
ARB is currently in a state where “the narrative is improving, but the price is high”—
99% of people see the 45% gain and shout, “The reversal is here,” yet fail to see the 92.63 million ARB unlock at the end of the month, with the FOMC still ahead.
The day ARB breaks above 0.142 may mark a real reversal.
But what if it fails to break out?
What is your ARB cost basis?
At 0.134, are you buying or selling?#美国8月非农超预期 #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 $BTC $ARB $HOOD

If you understand “on-chain assets” as a list, then gold, government bonds, and real estate are of course all on it But what I really want to talk about is another category: things many people can’t see, yet that have been making money for you, explaining things for you, and vouching for you all along—the fan base, personal reputation, industry influence, and the kind of trust built up year after year

ETH at $2,450—are you chasing?
Look at the surface: the medium-term structure has turned bullish, but the short term is grinding inside a range.
In mid-to-late August, ETH broke through the descending trendline on heavy volume from $1,900 and moved above Fib 0.618 ($2,438), setting a new higher high for this cycle. Spot ETFs have maintained net inflows, totaling approximately $1.85 billion in August, and institutional allocation shows no sign of stopping.
But then what happened? It stalled at $2,546 and pulled back to oscillate around $2,450. Macro rate-hike expectations are weighing on it, keeping it stuck between up and down.
First: this breakout is different from all the previous fake breakouts.
The descending trendline from the 2025 high was decisively broken by a high-volume bullish candle in August. The 50-day moving average is at $2,089 and the 200-day moving average at $2,036, with price far above the long-term averages—this is not a short-term rebound, but a signal of a medium-term trend reversal.
The staking rate is 30%-34%, with over 2 million ETH queued to enter and a wait of approximately 36 days, while exits are nearly zero.
Staking ETFs such as BlackRock's ETHB have launched and distribute yield, addressing the spot ETFs' lack of interest income.
Second: macro conditions are capping the upside, but you need to recognize one fact.
CPI is due on September 11, and the FOMC meets on September 16. Rate-hike odds have been pushed to 60%, with the market shifting from “possibly pausing” back to “higher for longer.” This is the entire reason ETH became timid after reaching $2,546.
August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162k, above expectations, sending rate-hike odds higher—ETH bounced from $2,370 back to $2,450 instead of falling. The same negative catalyst three months ago would have sent ETH below $2,000. The fact that it is no longer falling on bad news shows that macro data can only affect the pace, not change the trend.
Third: the technical picture has reached the point where a direction must be chosen.
On the daily chart, a symmetrical triangle/wedge is compressing, with a descending upper boundary and ascending lower boundary, while volatility contracts. This is a classic pre-breakout pattern.
Daily RSI is at 61-63, not overbought. MACD is above the zero line, but the histogram is shrinking—momentum is slowing, but this is not a reversal.
Key levels for bulls and bears:
Upside: $2,540-$2,550 (range top + supply zone); a breakout targets $2,650, followed by $2,920.
Downside: $2,438-$2,440 (Fib 0.618, the weekly bullish baseline); losing it targets $2,380-$2,400, followed by $2,300.
Trading strategy
Bullish approach:
Lightly enter longs on a pullback to $2,380-$2,420, with a stop below $2,350 and a target of $2,540-$2,550.
Breakout long:
Go long if the daily candle holds above $2,550 on heavy volume, with a stop if price falls back into the range, targeting $2,650 and then $2,920.
Bearish/hedging:
Only take a light short if $2,540-$2,550 is clearly rejected amid negative macro news, with a stop at $2,565-$2,580 and targets of $2,438-$2,400.
What does ETH look like now?
Like BTC in October 2023—the structure has already turned bullish, and everyone is waiting for the final negative catalyst to land before flooring the gas.
On the day $2,550 breaks, you will see price head straight toward $2,650-$2,920. While you are still wondering whether to chase, the whales will already be counting their money.
Retail traders are debating the direction at $2,450, while institutions have placed 500k buy orders below $2,400.
What is your ETH cost basis?
At $2,450, are you adding or reducing your position? #美国8月非农超预期 #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 $BTC $ETH $SOL