BTC at $79,300—would you dare get in?
Look at the surface first: bullish catalysts are piled high, but the price simply cannot break past 82k.
BTC surged from 63k to 82k in August, gaining over 20% in a single month with unstoppable momentum. But after hitting 82,200 on September 3, it lost steam and pulled back to 79,00 in three days, as if someone had grabbed it by the throat.
The daily moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, but the MACD histogram is weakening, RSI has fallen from overbought levels to 60, and trading volume is shrinking. The trend has not broken, but the market is waiting for a direction.
First: ETF inflows reached $1 billion, and Strategy is buying again, yet the price is not rising.
Spot BTC ETF net inflows were close to $1 billion last week, led by BlackRock IBIT. Strategy restarted purchases at the end of August, spending $370 million.
Sounds powerful, right? But the price fell nearly $3,000 from 82,200. When bullish news arrives but the price does not follow, that is called “bullish catalyst fatigue.”
Second: FOMC is coming—that is the biggest “uncertainty.”
The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for September 15–16, and CME FedWatch shows a 58–60% probability of a 25-bp rate hike. August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000, far above expectations, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, Chair Warsh is hawkish, and oil prices have risen to $97—the inflation problem simply cannot be brought under control.
If rates rise → BTC will most likely retest 76k–77k
If rates remain unchanged → the previous high at 82k could be pierced directly
Third: there is a signal that most people have overlooked.
Abnormal withdrawals appeared on Blockstream’s sidechain Liquid Network, with 4,000 BTC (approximately $320 million) withdrawn, prompting the network to suspend some functions. In addition, early miner wallets from around 2010 suddenly came back to life, moving 600 BTC.
No need to understand all of it—the long-dormant Bitcoin holdings have started moving. Either whales are changing wallets, or someone is preparing to dump.
Short-term sentiment has been disrupted, but Bitcoin’s mainnet has not been affected. The market is simply on edge now, and any abnormality will be amplified.
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
ETF net inflows were nearly $1 billion last week, and institutional buying is continuing
Strategy restarted purchases worth $370 million, and the corporate Bitcoin accumulation narrative remains intact
The daily moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, and the medium-term trend is unbroken
BTC rose from 63k to 82k in August, showing strong rebound momentum
On the other side:
82,200 has rejected the price three times, confirming effective resistance
The probability of an FOMC rate hike is 60%, with hawkish risks looming
Oil is at $97, and inflation could rebound
Trading volume is shrinking, indicating consolidation at elevated levels rather than a breakout
Resistance above: 80,000–80,500 → 82,300 (previous high) → 85,000
Support below: 78,800–79,000 (today’s low) → 76,700–77,000 → 75,500–76,000
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Wait for a retest of 78,800–79,000 to stabilize before cautiously going long, with a stop-loss at 78,200 and a target of 80,300–80,500. Take half off first when it gets there. If 78,800 breaks on heavy volume, cautiously go short, with a target of 77,000 and a stop-loss at 79,500.
For swing traders:
Remain bullish over the medium term, but reduce leverage before FOMC. If BTC retests 77,000–78,000 and recovers 80,000 on heavy volume, add to your position and target 82,300–85,000.
For long-term believers:
Continue dollar-cost averaging at 76k–77k. The three-part logic of the halving, ETFs, and institutional allocation remains unchanged, with a year-end target of 90k–100k. But 79,400 is not a comfortable level for adding; wait for a pullback or confirmation of a breakout before taking action.
BTC rose 30% from 63k to 82k in August, and you did not sell,
but now that it has pulled back less than 4%, you are panicking instead?
What do you call this? You cannot hold through gains and dare not buy the dip.
On the day 82,300 breaks, you will realize:
It is not that BTC is no longer in a bull market—you keep dying from panic on the eve of every FOMC meeting.
What is your BTC cost basis?
Before FOMC, will you reduce or add to your position?
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