Global TradFi & Macroeconomics

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 lowered its annual inflation rate to 0.85%, for the first time below gold’s 1.5–2%. Bitcoin’s scarcity comes from code rules: supply will gradually decrease, and another halving is expected again in 2028. This halving cycle witnessed increased participation from institutional investors, strengthening Bitcoin’s position as digital gold.

Bank of America releases a report, adjusting its global economic outlook due to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East. The U.S. growth forecast for 2026 is lowered to 2.3%, and inflation is raised to 3.1%. The eurozone growth forecast is cut, with inflation raised to 3.3%. The report emphasizes that the impact of the shocks is uneven.

Macro investor Jordi Visser believes that if Bitcoin and Ethereum break through $76,000 and $2,400 respectively, it will kick off a sustainable uptrend. He expects high inflation to push investors to seek profitable assets, and notes that the probability of an economic recession has fallen to 24%. This view contrasts with the current bearish expectations in the crypto industry.

The breakdown of the nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. caused Bitcoin to surge and then pull back, with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and macroeconomic data becoming the focus. This article will explain the logic behind volatility in the crypto market amid geopolitical conflict and the movement of on-chain capital.

Gate News message: On April 12, according to Israeli media reports, after negotiations between the United States and Iran failed to reach an agreement, Israel assessed that a U.S.-Iran ceasefire could be extended so both sides can continue to stay in contact.

Gate News message: On April 12, U.S. President Trump reposted an article with the headline "If Iran Doesn’t Capitulate, the President Holds a 'Trump Ace': A Naval Blockade" and copied and posted that headline. The article states that if Iran refuses to accept the final agreement proposed by the United States on Saturday, Trump can choose to blow Iran back to the "Stone Age," as he vowed, or once again adopt the naval blockade strategy that had previously been successfully implemented in Venezuela.

The U.S. vice president, Vance, did not reach an agreement in the US-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad. The core dispute is that Iran refused the U.S. demand for a nuclear weapons commitment. The breakdown of the talks has increased geopolitical risk, affecting financial markets—especially crude oil and Bitcoin prices. Even though the negotiations were unsuccessful, both sides may still continue discussions, and the market will watch for further developments.

Morgan Stanley’s head of digital asset strategy, Amy Oldenburg, said the firm will expand its cryptocurrency allocation, including bitcoin ETFs and tokenized assets. The plan is to explore crypto tax harvesting through its subsidiary, Parametric, while it has already launched a spot bitcoin ETF and plans to offer crypto trading services. This move shows that Wall Street’s stance toward the crypto market has changed significantly.

Gate News message. On April 12, according to on-chain data monitoring, Sky (formerly MakerDAO) co-founder Rune’s 7x leveraged Nasdaq 100 short positions have all been closed. He currently still holds 20x leveraged WTI crude oil futures long positions, 7x leveraged Brent crude oil long positions, and 20x leveraged S&P 500 short positions, and all of them are in a loss position. His overall position value has now fallen to about $680k, with an unrealized loss of about $60k, and the return on investment is -21.78%.

The Ether Machine treasury company, The Ether Machine, and Dynamix Corporation’s $1.6 billion SPAC merger agreement was terminated due to unfavorable market conditions. The merger aimed to list The Ether Machine on Nasdaq; after the termination, Dynamix will receive a $50 million termination fee.

President Javier Milei reveals that Argentina's dollarization efforts face resistance from citizens who prefer using the peso. Despite allowing currency competition, adoption remains low, complicating Milei's economic reforms.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies has uplisted to the New York Stock Exchange and increased its share buyback from $1 billion to $4 billion. The company now holds approximately 4.8 million ETH, nearing its goal of 5% of the total supply, amid a challenging stock performance.

Morgan Stanley’s head of digital asset strategy, Amy Oldenburg, said the firm will treat tokenized money market funds as a future direction, while also considering tax-loss harvesting services and Bitcoin-related products. The firm has filed ETF applications for Ethereum and Solana, and manages $9.3 trillion in client assets.

Spot ETFs tied to Bitcoin saw a significant inflow of $240 million, indicating strong institutional demand and reflecting a trend of consistent accumulation. With over 721,000 BTC held by ETFs, supply pressure is rising, fundamentally supporting Bitcoin's integration into traditional finance.

Iran-U.S. third round of talks in Pakistan has ended. Iran says this is the “last chance” to reach a framework agreement. There are significant differences between the two sides on core issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue, and no substantive progress has been made. The negotiations are still ongoing; the situation is complex, and both military actions and diplomatic games are escalating in parallel.

Central banks are now holding more gold reserves than valuation-adjusted US dollar reserves for the first time, with a $140 billion gap favoring gold. This shift reflects growing geopolitical concerns and the unreliability of dollar reserves, as central banks increasingly prefer gold amidst uncertainty.

Gate News update: On April 12, according to Alternative Data, today’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index is 16 (15 yesterday), and market panic sentiment has eased slightly. The index runs on a threshold of 0-100 and is calculated from six indicators: volatility (25%), market trading volume (25%), social media buzz (15%), market survey (15%), Bitcoin’s share of the entire market (10%), and Google keyword trend analysis (10%).

Gate News update, April 12, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas disclosed that Bitwise has once again updated its Hyperliquid ETF application filings. The trading symbol is set to BHYP, and the management fee is 67 basis points (0.67%). Eric Balchunas said that this move typically means the ETF will be launched soon.