#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 Wall Street Reassesses Tesla: Robot Valuation at Least Dominates 20%, Worth Trillions, Buying Now Is Like Getting It Free
One of the best embodied intelligence investments right now might be investing in Musk. It’s important to know that in the secondary market, opportunities for non-institutional investors to get into embodied intelligence are still very rare. But if you buy Tesla stock now, you’re essentially getting the robot (potential stock) for free. This isn’t just my opinion; it’s the latest conclusion from Wall Street investment banks through detailed analysis.
Analysts believe that Tesla’s existing businesses, including electric vehicles, energy storage, FSD, Robotaxi, and others, are already enough to support the current stock price—around $400—but this figure does not include the robot. That’s not to say Tesla’s robot business has no value; on the contrary, they believe that this potentially world-changing business is incalculable in value.
This institution initially predicts that Tesla’s embodied intelligence valuation could, in the short term, dominate about 20% of the company’s total valuation—estimated at nearly one trillion yuan in market value. But looking further ahead, it could be worth more than all of Tesla’s other businesses combined.
Wall Street Reassesses Tesla
A Wall Street investment bank called Piper Sandler has released a new valuation report on Tesla, concluding that: if you buy Tesla stock at around $400–$420, it’s equivalent to obtaining the Tesla humanoid robot project Optimus (Bumblebee) at zero cost. Because just Tesla’s existing businesses are already worth $400 per share. What does that mean? Let’s break it down step by step.
Piper Sandler’s analyst Alexander Potter built a very detailed model. What’s special is that Potter considered many factors often overlooked by other analysts, such as detailed predictions for Tesla’s insurance business, Supercharger revenue, and even Tesla’s CEO compensation plan for 2025. According to this model, Potter ultimately broke Tesla’s business into 17 independent product lines, valued each using discounted cash flow models, and then summed them up. The final result is that Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, FSD software, insurance, charging network, Robotaxi, etc.—are valued at about $400 per share. Note that in this valuation, Optimus humanoid robot and its “Inference-as-a-Service” are given no value at all.
Potter’s words are, “At $400 per share, we believe investors can ‘get’ Optimus for free.” Tesla’s latest closing price is about $420, slightly above $400, which also indicates that the market’s valuation of existing businesses is basically reasonable. It’s like paying $400 for a product that is worth $400 itself. Meanwhile, the seller is also giving away a mysterious future-valued gift—Optimus robot—that is still in R&D. The value of this gift is uncertain now, but you’re not paying extra for it. However, this doesn’t mean the robot has no value. More accurately, analysts just can’t assign an exact value right now.
Potter revealed that this is because embodied intelligence robots are still in early stages, and evaluating such products that could “reshape the economy and labor markets” is extremely difficult.
Additionally, analysts’ forecasts for Tesla’s revenue and EPS in 2026–2027 are below market expectations, citing the discontinuation of Model X/S, declining vehicle deliveries, and reduced regulatory credit income. But Potter believes this decline isn’t significant; even if short-term profits fall short of expectations, it won’t have a lasting impact on the stock price because investor focus has shifted—Tesla’s future value will come more from growth in software or AI-related metrics like FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus.
However, as a reference, the report still provides a preliminary valuation, reserving $100 of future value for Optimus and similar unaccounted businesses, which accounts for about 20% of Tesla’s total valuation… or perhaps more. Using market cap as a reference, this robot project is roughly valued at $375.6 billion, about 2.55T RMB—over 2 trillion yuan.
But analysts believe this allocation is actually quite conservative, and the robot’s true potential could be even greater. Potter predicts that Optimus + inference services could, in the future, be worth more than all of Tesla’s other businesses combined. So, where does this “more valuable than all other businesses” robot project stand now?
Tesla Humanoid Robot, What’s the Current Status?
Tesla’s humanoid robot project, Optimus, first appeared at Tesla AI Day in 2021. At that time, perhaps no one expected that Elon Musk’s expectations for Optimus would far surpass those for cars. In Musk’s current plan, the number of humanoid robots in the future will exceed the human population, reaching hundreds of millions, becoming a household staple. After years of slogans, Optimus has iterated to the third generation, and this year finally reached the production threshold. Although Version 3 has not yet been publicly shown, the previous Version 2.5 has been demonstrated at shareholder meetings to stand steadily and dance for two hours, and Tesla has shown Optimus performing simple tasks like factory battery sorting. According to Musk’s earlier disclosures, Optimus V3 will officially start mass production in July or August this year. This version will feature the latest hand design and is expected to be applied externally by 2027. To ensure smooth mass production, Tesla has even halted Model S and Model X production, transforming its Fremont, California factory into an Optimus production line with an annual capacity of 1 million units. Of course, this capacity is far from Musk’s plan; Tesla’s Texas Gigafactory has reserved dedicated space for Optimus, with a long-term goal of 10 million units annually. Musk has even envisioned Optimus generations 4 and 5: V4 aims for annual production of tens of millions, and V5 targets 50–100 million units. But before explosive growth, engineering challenges remain significant: reports indicate that each Optimus contains about 10k unique parts, most of which have never been mass-produced at scale before. For example, a core actuator component called “planetary roller screw” currently lasts about a year, whereas industrial robots standardly last over five years.
In early 2026, Musk himself admitted a very weighty point: there isn’t a single robot doing useful work in Tesla factories yet. Still, Musk insists on viewing Optimus as the largest product, even halting high-end Tesla models and retooling production lines—this is a clear signal of Tesla’s complete transformation from a “hardware manufacturer” to a “physical-world AI company.” In Musk’s view, the space used to produce 30k cars could be far more valuable if used to produce robots.
After humanoid robots become widespread, goods and services in the market will become extremely abundant, leading humanity into an “era of abundance.” He even predicted that Optimus could outperform the best humans in specific fields (like surgery) in the future. However, Musk’s vigorous push for Optimus might also carry a bit of personal interest—his trillion-dollar compensation package is linked to robots. Last year, Tesla set a new compensation plan for Musk, with a potential total value of about $1 trillion. This plan requires Musk to complete various demanding tasks in 12 phases, including producing 1 million humanoid robots. So far, because market cap and operational targets haven’t been met, Musk’s projected 2025 compensation is as high as $158 billion (market cap valuation), but he has yet to receive a cent. This means Musk can’t just “sit back and collect a salary” like a traditional CEO. He must push for mass production and sales of Optimus to turn the “1 million units” target into reality, unlocking his compensation package, with robot and founder interests fully locked in—exactly what Tesla shareholders want to see. Analysts also emphasize that whether the optimistic outlook for robots can be realized depends entirely on Tesla and Musk’s execution. But regardless, this report on Tesla also provides a valuation reference for companies with similar strategies.
Domestic players like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Chery are all exploring the “car-based, robot-future” route.
Xpeng, the most aggressive and similar to Tesla in transformation, is also being valued by the capital market using “segment valuation methods.” In November last year, Morgan Stanley valued Xpeng at 368 billion yuan, with over 80% from automotive business, and nearly 90 billion yuan contributed by emerging businesses like autonomous driving and robots.
Stories of OEMs relying on robots to refresh valuations repeatedly prove that the capital market has truly voted with real money, recognizing a new trend: players who want to participate in the next big wave must first tell the story of physical-world AI. $TSLA
One of the best embodied intelligence investments right now might be investing in Musk. It’s important to know that in the secondary market, opportunities for non-institutional investors to get into embodied intelligence are still very rare. But if you buy Tesla stock now, you’re essentially getting the robot (potential stock) for free. This isn’t just my opinion; it’s the latest conclusion from Wall Street investment banks through detailed analysis.
Analysts believe that Tesla’s existing businesses, including electric vehicles, energy storage, FSD, Robotaxi, and others, are already enough to support the current stock price—around $400—but this figure does not include the robot. That’s not to say Tesla’s robot business has no value; on the contrary, they believe that this potentially world-changing business is incalculable in value.
This institution initially predicts that Tesla’s embodied intelligence valuation could, in the short term, dominate about 20% of the company’s total valuation—estimated at nearly one trillion yuan in market value. But looking further ahead, it could be worth more than all of Tesla’s other businesses combined.
Wall Street Reassesses Tesla
A Wall Street investment bank called Piper Sandler has released a new valuation report on Tesla, concluding that: if you buy Tesla stock at around $400–$420, it’s equivalent to obtaining the Tesla humanoid robot project Optimus (Bumblebee) at zero cost. Because just Tesla’s existing businesses are already worth $400 per share. What does that mean? Let’s break it down step by step.
Piper Sandler’s analyst Alexander Potter built a very detailed model. What’s special is that Potter considered many factors often overlooked by other analysts, such as detailed predictions for Tesla’s insurance business, Supercharger revenue, and even Tesla’s CEO compensation plan for 2025. According to this model, Potter ultimately broke Tesla’s business into 17 independent product lines, valued each using discounted cash flow models, and then summed them up. The final result is that Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, FSD software, insurance, charging network, Robotaxi, etc.—are valued at about $400 per share. Note that in this valuation, Optimus humanoid robot and its “Inference-as-a-Service” are given no value at all.
Potter’s words are, “At $400 per share, we believe investors can ‘get’ Optimus for free.” Tesla’s latest closing price is about $420, slightly above $400, which also indicates that the market’s valuation of existing businesses is basically reasonable. It’s like paying $400 for a product that is worth $400 itself. Meanwhile, the seller is also giving away a mysterious future-valued gift—Optimus robot—that is still in R&D. The value of this gift is uncertain now, but you’re not paying extra for it. However, this doesn’t mean the robot has no value. More accurately, analysts just can’t assign an exact value right now.
Potter revealed that this is because embodied intelligence robots are still in early stages, and evaluating such products that could “reshape the economy and labor markets” is extremely difficult.
Additionally, analysts’ forecasts for Tesla’s revenue and EPS in 2026–2027 are below market expectations, citing the discontinuation of Model X/S, declining vehicle deliveries, and reduced regulatory credit income. But Potter believes this decline isn’t significant; even if short-term profits fall short of expectations, it won’t have a lasting impact on the stock price because investor focus has shifted—Tesla’s future value will come more from growth in software or AI-related metrics like FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus.
However, as a reference, the report still provides a preliminary valuation, reserving $100 of future value for Optimus and similar unaccounted businesses, which accounts for about 20% of Tesla’s total valuation… or perhaps more. Using market cap as a reference, this robot project is roughly valued at $375.6 billion, about 2.55T RMB—over 2 trillion yuan.
But analysts believe this allocation is actually quite conservative, and the robot’s true potential could be even greater. Potter predicts that Optimus + inference services could, in the future, be worth more than all of Tesla’s other businesses combined. So, where does this “more valuable than all other businesses” robot project stand now?
Tesla Humanoid Robot, What’s the Current Status?
Tesla’s humanoid robot project, Optimus, first appeared at Tesla AI Day in 2021. At that time, perhaps no one expected that Elon Musk’s expectations for Optimus would far surpass those for cars. In Musk’s current plan, the number of humanoid robots in the future will exceed the human population, reaching hundreds of millions, becoming a household staple. After years of slogans, Optimus has iterated to the third generation, and this year finally reached the production threshold. Although Version 3 has not yet been publicly shown, the previous Version 2.5 has been demonstrated at shareholder meetings to stand steadily and dance for two hours, and Tesla has shown Optimus performing simple tasks like factory battery sorting. According to Musk’s earlier disclosures, Optimus V3 will officially start mass production in July or August this year. This version will feature the latest hand design and is expected to be applied externally by 2027. To ensure smooth mass production, Tesla has even halted Model S and Model X production, transforming its Fremont, California factory into an Optimus production line with an annual capacity of 1 million units. Of course, this capacity is far from Musk’s plan; Tesla’s Texas Gigafactory has reserved dedicated space for Optimus, with a long-term goal of 10 million units annually. Musk has even envisioned Optimus generations 4 and 5: V4 aims for annual production of tens of millions, and V5 targets 50–100 million units. But before explosive growth, engineering challenges remain significant: reports indicate that each Optimus contains about 10k unique parts, most of which have never been mass-produced at scale before. For example, a core actuator component called “planetary roller screw” currently lasts about a year, whereas industrial robots standardly last over five years.
In early 2026, Musk himself admitted a very weighty point: there isn’t a single robot doing useful work in Tesla factories yet. Still, Musk insists on viewing Optimus as the largest product, even halting high-end Tesla models and retooling production lines—this is a clear signal of Tesla’s complete transformation from a “hardware manufacturer” to a “physical-world AI company.” In Musk’s view, the space used to produce 30k cars could be far more valuable if used to produce robots.
After humanoid robots become widespread, goods and services in the market will become extremely abundant, leading humanity into an “era of abundance.” He even predicted that Optimus could outperform the best humans in specific fields (like surgery) in the future. However, Musk’s vigorous push for Optimus might also carry a bit of personal interest—his trillion-dollar compensation package is linked to robots. Last year, Tesla set a new compensation plan for Musk, with a potential total value of about $1 trillion. This plan requires Musk to complete various demanding tasks in 12 phases, including producing 1 million humanoid robots. So far, because market cap and operational targets haven’t been met, Musk’s projected 2025 compensation is as high as $158 billion (market cap valuation), but he has yet to receive a cent. This means Musk can’t just “sit back and collect a salary” like a traditional CEO. He must push for mass production and sales of Optimus to turn the “1 million units” target into reality, unlocking his compensation package, with robot and founder interests fully locked in—exactly what Tesla shareholders want to see. Analysts also emphasize that whether the optimistic outlook for robots can be realized depends entirely on Tesla and Musk’s execution. But regardless, this report on Tesla also provides a valuation reference for companies with similar strategies.
Domestic players like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Chery are all exploring the “car-based, robot-future” route.
Xpeng, the most aggressive and similar to Tesla in transformation, is also being valued by the capital market using “segment valuation methods.” In November last year, Morgan Stanley valued Xpeng at 368 billion yuan, with over 80% from automotive business, and nearly 90 billion yuan contributed by emerging businesses like autonomous driving and robots.
Stories of OEMs relying on robots to refresh valuations repeatedly prove that the capital market has truly voted with real money, recognizing a new trend: players who want to participate in the next big wave must first tell the story of physical-world AI. $TSLA
