What Is Expected Shortfall (ES)? Why Can It Capture Tail Risks That VaR Misses?

In cryptocurrency markets, risk is not only about how much an account could lose, but also how large those losses could become when extreme market conditions occur. Value at Risk (VaR) can estimate a loss threshold, but it cannot directly indicate the average loss beyond that threshold. This is where Expected Shortfall (ES) is valuable.

First, what is ES?

ES measures the average level of tail losses when losses exceed a specified VaR threshold. For example, at the same time horizon and 95% confidence level, ES f

$STAMP Why did auto-deleveraging happen? I set the auto take-profit at 0.004, but it was $2,000 short

#每周来晒 #美国10月CPI即将公布

The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could become one of the most important macroeconomic events for financial markets. At a time when investors are closely monitoring inflation, interest rates, economic growth and liquidity conditions, even a small difference between expected and actual CPI figures could create significant volatility across traditional and digital assets.

My assessment is that this report should not be viewed simply as another monthly inflation update. It could provide important clues about the Federal Reserve's next policy decision and d

The Crypto Market Is Crashing. What Are Institutions Doing? Where Is the Money Flowing?

Whenever the cryptocurrency market sees a sharp drop, ordinary investors are most concerned with when prices will rebound. Professional investors, however, often focus on another question: Where is the money flowing?

That’s because prices reflect the outcome of market trading, while capital flows can help us understand investors’ real behavior.

First, watch Bitcoin ETF flows. Daily net inflows and outflows from spot ETFs can help us understand some institutional investors’ allocation needs. Consecutive n

Tonight at 21:30, U.S. October CPI is due: Can BTC hold steady with expectations at 3.7%?
U.S. October CPI will be released at 21:30 Beijing time tonight, with the market expecting a year-over-year reading of 3.7%, unchanged from September. Don’t be fooled by the fact that the number hasn’t risen—this itself signals that inflation remains “stubbornly hot.” September CPI already came in above expectations at 3.7% (versus 3.6% expected), while core CPI also rose to 2.6%, driven by the combined persistence of oil prices and rents.
Why isn’t inflation coming down?
The keyword behind this inflation

$PI You're investing in the future; add another 20,000

#BTCETFOutflowsContinue #ShareWeekly
Introduction: Bitcoin ETFs Face Renewed Selling Pressure
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become one of the most important parts of the cryptocurrency market. Since their introduction, spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided traditional investors with a regulated way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly managing cryptocurrency wallets or private keys.
However, recent developments have raised concerns about institutional demand. During the week of November 2–6, 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.28 billion in net outflows, markin

$PROM After a sharp drop, it is now consolidating sideways. Bulls have repeatedly tried and failed to reclaim the resistance from the moving averages above, and the overall trend remains dominated by the bears. The trading approach remains bearish.
$PROM Short trade reference: Watch the 5.239 - 5.265 area for entry. Downside targets are 4.996 - 4.791, with a stop at 5.423.
Note: If market volatility suddenly spikes, thin trading volumes can lead to rapid price surges that trigger stop-losses. Manage your position size according to your means, never go all-in, and allocate funds appropriately

#GateLaunchesPoSECProofOfSecurity #ShareWeekly

Gate Launches PoSEC (Proof of Security): A New Approach to Transparency and User Asset Protection in the Crypto Industry
Introduction: Strengthening Trust Through Better Security Standards
Security and transparency have become two of the most important pillars of the cryptocurrency industry. As digital assets continue gaining global attention, investors increasingly want more than attractive trading opportunities. They also want confidence that their funds are properly stored, protected, and supported by transparent security mechanisms.
Recogni

Looking at Bitcoin's weekly chart today, I spotted another pretty interesting signal! 😁

The Bollinger Band middle line, or 20-week moving average, is moving toward the 50-week moving average. The two lines are currently just over $800 apart, and a golden cross looks imminent!
#美国10月CPI即将公布
Looking back at the chart, similar golden crosses appeared in 2019 and 2023. In particular, everyone should still remember the major bull run that followed in 2023. 🤣
$BTC
BTC is now around $75k, and the price is still struggling with the 50-week moving average, while the two moving averages have quietl

Today, I'll have the auntie make a simple bowl of noodles while I watch the market, then share the rocket strategy later.
After eating, I'll hurry to the teahouse. A guy from Beijing lost several million trading crude oil this year. He followed me on a few trades and made small profits over several rounds, and came all the way here to visit and exchange ideas. I'll head over as soon as I finish eating.
$SPCX

#晒出我的持仓收益 Aoying 1:1 signal copy trading with millisecond-level zero latency

$INIT Current price: 0.19469. The first resistance above is the upper Bollinger Band at 0.198434. Pullback support is at the MA5 of 0.188792, with the MA20 at 0.146414 below that. These figures are worth laying out first because they illustrate a reusable chart-reading method: use moving average alignment to judge whether a trend is healthy.
First, look at the trend structure. The MA5 is clearly above the MA20, and the price is trading above the moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish alignment—this is the first confirmation that the trend is healthy. But a healthy trend does not mea

#USAIStocksHitHard #ShareWeekly

US AI Stocks Hit Hard: Market Sell-Off, Valuation Concerns, and the Future of Artificial Intelligence Investments
Introduction: Is the AI Investment Boom Facing a Reality Check?
Artificial intelligence has become one of the most powerful forces influencing global financial markets. Over recent years, AI-related companies have attracted enormous investor attention because of rapid technological development, expanding data-center infrastructure, advanced semiconductor production, and growing demand for intelligent software.
However, the recent weakness in US AI s

There probably aren’t many men who could resist such an affectionate gaze from a beautiful woman, right? 🫣