#加密市场观察 From 126k to 62k: Crypto in 2026 is more brutal than you’d think
In August 2026, the crypto market is going through the most painful moment of this year so far.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a roughly $62,300–$63,200 range, down about 49.8% from this year’s initial all-time high above $126k. Year to date, BTC is down about 28%; most large altcoins have fallen even more, clustering in the 32% to 44% range. Ethereum is also running weak, hovering around $1,850. Overall market sentiment remains in the “extreme fear” zone, with the Fear & Greed Index at only 27–35.
1. Coldcard wallet incident: $114 million is gone
What has most gripped the market’s nerves in recent days is the ongoing escalation of a security vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet.
The attacker has cumulatively stolen about 1,367 BTC; at current prices, the loss is approximately $89 million to $114 million, affecting thousands of addresses. Even more worrying is that the attacker has shifted from stealing funds from large wallets to scanning small addresses—meaning ordinary users could become targets too.
This hasn’t only caused direct losses; it has also dealt a blow to market confidence in “self-custody.” Some holders have even started moving assets from their personal wallets back to exchanges—fully contradicting the mainstream belief that “if it’s not your private key, it’s not your coin.”
2. Bitcoin governance crisis: support rate below 1%
More alarming than the price drop is a crisis at the Bitcoin protocol level.
On July 25, Bitcoin officially entered the final processing window under BIP-110, but the miner support rate for this proposal was only 0.89%. That’s far below the 55% support rate required to achieve the lock-in. If support rates remain low, a mandatory version switch could be initiated in August.
Core developers have identified “consensus mechanism cleanup,” “contract mechanism,” and “quantum technology response measures” as the next key tasks. This is another severe governance test for the Bitcoin community, following earlier controversies over hard forks.
3. Altcoins “resist declines,” but an “ETF wall” blocks a broad rally
Interestingly, amid this big Bitcoin drop, altcoins have held up relatively well.
On August 1, Bitcoin fell nearly 3% on geopolitical shock, briefly breaking below $63,000, but BNB dropped only 0.36%, XRP fell 1.8%, and Solana dropped about 2%. The altcoin season index instead rose to 62, hitting a recent high.
However, the market landscape in 2026 is very different from past years. Bitcoin spot ETFs have a total net asset value of $126k; spot Ethereum ETFs are over $10.5 billion. Together, they total nearly $90 billion. These institutional funds are locked firmly in mainstream assets and are unlikely to flow into altcoins. Even if an altcoin season truly arrives, it’s more likely to be structural opportunities in popular tracks like AI and RWA.
4. Hong Kong officially becomes Asia’s first stablecoin-licensing jurisdiction
Regulation also brings major news. On August 1, Hong Kong officially became Asia’s first jurisdiction to implement a licensing regime for stablecoins. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority requires that all platforms issuing stablecoins in Hong Kong operate under license; reserves must be 100% backed, with monthly audits and public disclosures.
In the short term, it’s only a matter of time before USDT and USDC become compliant in Hong Kong. Hong Kong may replicate Singapore’s path—moving from the gray zone to becoming a preferred destination for crypto.
5. Key price levels: $63,000 is the “watershed”
Crypto research firm 10x Research said that if Bitcoin’s August monthly close holds above $63,000, it would trigger multiple cycle indicators to flip to bullish signals, confirming that the bear market bottom is already in. Bitcoin’s July close failed to reach that threshold, and the current price is only one step away from confirming the signal.
Still, risks remain: if the 10-year US Treasury yield keeps climbing, it could force the Fed to restart rate hikes in September; and potential sell pressure on the supply side caused by miners transitioning into AI businesses—bringing about potential overhang from around 100k BTC—also adds pressure.
In August, the crypto market is facing it all: the Coldcard incident rattling confidence, Bitcoin facing governance tests, altcoins showing unusual moves, and Hong Kong regulation accelerating into reality—each one is a big deal.
$63,000 is the key watershed right now. Whether it can hold will determine the direction for this August and even the rest of the second half of the year.
Disclaimer: The above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC ‌

#比特币小额转账创FTX崩盘以来新高 Order Reconfiguration Is Underway: U.S. Stocks See an Epic Rebound—Why Is the Crypto Market Still Silent?
Over the past 24 hours, global risk assets have seen a broad-based repair. AI tech giants led the surge, and U.S. stocks delivered an epic rebound; Middle East geopolitical risks kept cooling, crude oil fell sharply, and global safe-haven sentiment clearly receded. By comparison, the crypto market has still held to narrow-range consolidation—trading volumes are lackluster, sector rotation has intensified, and sidelined capital keeps increasing.
Geopolitical chessboard: familiar script, playing out again
① Middle East situation continues the “talks softening” tone
Iran’s remarks:
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified that it has not engaged in direct negotiations with the U.S. over the Strait of Hormuz, but has maintained communication with Oman on traffic-management at the level of coordination;
Trump speaks: Trump accused Tehran of being “two-faced,” while also disclosing that U.S.-Iran talks will be held on Monday with no stated deadline;
Despite tossing out “last chance” and “decapitation” threats in rhetoric, what is actually being released is still a calming signal
The market is becoming more and more familiar with this: this “maximum pressure + ongoing negotiations” script keeps repeating, and capital markets have already formed expectations. Capital won’t change direction because of a tough-sounding remark. What truly moves asset prices is not who said what, but who controls the future order. Oil prices falling and U.S. stocks jumping—that is capital’s most direct vote. War affects short-term risk appetite; industrial upgrading determines where long-term capital flows. Asset pricing logic depends on the reshaping of global industrial chains, technology competition, and the reconstruction of financial order.
Capital map: global risk assets strongly rebound📈 U.S. stocks: tech giants erupt across the board—Nasdaq +2.13%-S&P 500 +1.48%Dow Jones +1.32%
Crude oil: WTI crude falls to about $80 per barrel, Brent crude to about $83 per barrel, hitting the lowest in nearly three weeks, and geopolitical premium continues to clear.
Precious metals: gold and silver fluctuate in a narrow range and rebound; silver volatility is higher than gold.
FX: the U.S. dollar slips slightly; the yen surges; the euro, pound sterling, and others weaken
Web3 roundup: what the market truly lacks is incremental capital
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has continued to maintain a low-volatility regime. BTC’s market-cap share has edged up as capital flows back into Bitcoin’s safe-haven positioning; ETH’s market-cap share has declined, and institutional capital continues to reduce risk exposure to altcoins and the Ethereum ecosystem
BTC: climbs in a narrow range; selling pressure hits as it approaches the 64K level
ETH: slips slightly and underperforms BTC; institutional capital is clearly split
Falling for three straight quarters, the crypto market has entered its longest adjustment cycle
In Q2 2026, the crypto market’s total market cap continues to decline by 12.6%, to about $2.1 trillion; it has fallen for three consecutive quarters, with a cumulative drawdown of about 52% from the historical peak.
Meanwhile, the capital withdrawal process has been quite orderly. In Q2, spot trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 27.9%, to only about $1.95 trillion; among which May’s trading value was $619 billion, the lowest level so far this year.
This means the market is not experiencing a burst of systemic panic—it is continuously waiting for a new growth logic; capital’s short-term trading emotion, and long-term trading productivity.
The divergence between today’s crypto market and traditional financial markets essentially reflects that global capital has been reallocating pricing power. Wall Street still controls global cash flows; the U.S. holds the most important regulatory framework and institutional rules for crypto markets; Chinese-language capital remains one of the most important participation forces in crypto, but it has not yet gained enough voice. Therefore, when AI becomes the core narrative of the global productivity revolution, capital naturally prioritizes technology assets that can directly realize profits and cash flows, while the crypto market enters a period of value reappraisal.
War can help us understand risk; industrial upgrading can help us understand trends. Only by understanding the rules of how capital moves can we truly see where the future is headed. Real investing has never been about predicting every sudden event—it’s about, amid continuous noise and volatility, seeing where capital pricing power is migrating.$BTC ‌