#我的七夕交易分享 ETH Pulls Back 0.35% in 15 Minutes: Genesis Whale Activity Combined with Selling Pressure Weighs on Short-Term Performance
From 15:15 to 15:30 (UTC) on August 13, 2026, ETH pulled back 0.35% within 15 minutes, with prices ranging from 1883.12 to 1894.17 USDT and an amplitude of 0.58%. Overall, it continued to move within a narrow range, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 0.27%. The main driver of this move was large-scale on-chain activity from a genesis wallet that had been dormant for 11 years, with multiple early ETH wallets transferring millions of dollars in assets between July and August.
Although no actual selling has yet been confirmed, any movement by a genesis whale can trigger market concerns about potential selling pressure, creating short-term psychological pressure. Meanwhile, although ETH's staking rate has climbed to a record high of 34%, theoretically reducing the circulating supply, it has not driven prices higher, reflecting clearly weak demand at present.
In addition, order book data shows that selling pressure significantly outweighs buying pressure, with a buy/sell depth ratio of just 0.43. The total sell orders stand at 11.18 units versus 4.75 units in buy orders, while a large sell wall at $1,889.88 accounts for 50.5% of the total volume across the top five levels, further blocking room for a short-term rebound.
Improved CPI data on August 12 briefly pushed ETH above $1,900, but the lack of sustained follow-up buying caused the boost from the macroeconomic positive to fade quickly.
Technically, the 15-minute MA is bearish and the ADX has reached 30.3, indicating a certain degree of short-term downside trend strength, while the ADX on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and 1-day time frames is below 20, suggesting that the market remains range-bound without a clear direction.
In the short term, attention should focus on the $1,880 support and $1,900 resistance levels. If the genesis wallet subsequently transfers ETH to exchanges, this could confirm actual selling pressure. Whether trading volume can expand and break through the $1,900-$1,920 range will be a key signal. The current order book sample is limited, so attention should be paid to on-chain fund flows and changes in retail demand to assess subsequent market direction.$ETH ‌

#10年期国债收益率再跌破1.7% Market Divergence Widens, Short-Term Trading Enters a Wait-and-See Phase
As the 10-year government bond yield broke through the key 1.7% level, the market's bullish-bearish divergence rapidly widened, institutions generally slowed their trading pace, and the bond market officially entered a wait-and-see phase, making short-term trend-driven moves more difficult.
Bosera Funds analyzed that month-end liquidity in July was loose and expectations for easing policies strengthened, driving a rapid compression in ultra-long-end spreads and pushing the 10-year government bond yield below 1.7%. However, the market currently lacks the implementation of substantive incremental policies. The bond market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term, and further declines in yields will require the concrete implementation of easing policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts.
Liang Weichao, chief fixed-income analyst at China Post Securities, further pointed out that the downward breakout in the 10-year government bond yield was largely a byproduct of trading sentiment in the ultra-long end. There is considerable divergence in expectations regarding the upside potential after the breakout. Interbank negotiable certificate of deposit rates have already shown a rigid tendency to be “easier to rise than fall,” with market expectations even pointing to a test of 1.5%; meanwhile, persistently expensive funding costs will continue to create marginal pressure on banks’ funding costs, thereby affecting banks’ demand for short-duration bonds and placing some constraints on the bond market’s short-term performance.
In summary, the bond market is currently in a phase of trading driven by “expectations first, fundamentals lagging,” and the risk-reward profile has declined somewhat after long-end yields broke through key levels. In the short term, the market will repeatedly trade around the pace of policy implementation, economic recovery data, and changes in liquidity conditions. One-way trend moves will be difficult to sustain, so a range-trading approach is recommended, with a focus on tracking the subsequent implementation of monetary policy and monthly macroeconomic data to capture structural allocation opportunities.$CHCUSD ‌