#原油行情 On July 1, 2026, [Today's Crude Oil] Real-time in-depth analysis report.
🛢️ Crude Oil Market Snapshot
Updated to July 1, 2026. The geopolitical premium in the Middle East that previously supported oil prices has completely faded, and the crude oil market has entered a weak consolidation phase after a sharp decline. The market’s focus has fully shifted to expectations of loose supply, with short-term bearish forces not yet fully released. Only low inventories provide limited support, and oil prices remain under continuous downward pressure. The following is a complete analysis from five dimensions: market quotes, supply-demand dynamics, trend forecasts, core indicators, and industry developments.
I. Core Closing Data for the Day
International crude oil continued its sharp decline, with both domestic and foreign markets weakening simultaneously, as a large amount of long capital exited the market.
International market: WTI crude oil August contract quoted at $69.50/barrel, down 1.77% on the day, with a cumulative weekly decline of 9.62%, breaking below the $70 mark for the first time; Brent crude oil August contract at $72.92/barrel, with a weekly decline close to 10%, showing significant signs of long capital flight.
Domestic market: Shanghai crude oil SC main contract at 464.1 yuan/barrel, down 1.17% intraday, with the domestic-foreign price differential continuing to narrow. The procurement price range for local refineries is 460-468 yuan/barrel, wholesale prices for refined products continue to weaken, spot transactions are sluggish, and traders are highly cautious, with almost no bulk stockpiling operations.
II. Supply and Demand Fundamentals
Supply side
OPEC+ officially implemented a daily production increase plan of 188k barrels starting July 1, marking the fourth consecutive month of easing output cuts. Saudi Arabia and Russia each increased production by 62k barrels/day; the volume of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to 60% of pre-conflict levels, and the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East has essentially been eliminated. U.S. crude oil production rose to 13.93 million barrels/day, a new all-time high, with continuous increases in shale oil supply further reinforcing the global loose supply scenario.
Demand side
Multiple investment banks have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth. The economic recovery in Europe and the U.S. has fallen short of expectations, and refinery operating rates have declined. Only the seasonal summer gasoline demand in the U.S. provides slight support, which is insufficient to reverse the overall weak demand environment. Domestic refining and chemical enterprises produce based on demand, maintaining only essential raw material procurement with no large-scale inventory replenishment plans.
III. Technical Level Analysis
The short-term effects of production increases, loose supply, and macroeconomic demand concerns are converging as three bearish factors, maintaining downward pressure on oil prices. Key price levels to watch: WTI crude oil has key support at $68/barrel and resistance at $73/barrel; Brent crude oil support at $71/barrel and resistance at $76/barrel; domestic SC crude oil core support at 450 yuan/barrel and resistance at 480 yuan/barrel. In the medium to long term, global crude oil inventories remain in a relatively low range, which can limit the extent of a sharp decline. In the short term, a one-sided crash is unlikely, and the market may enter a prolonged period of low-range consolidation and bottom-building.
IV. Key Reference Data for Investors
• OPEC+ July additional capacity: daily increase of 188k barrels, with Saudi Arabia and Russia each increasing by 62k barrels/day;
• U.S. crude oil production: 13.93 million barrels/day, a new all-time high;
• Domestic refined product price adjustment window: opens at 24:00 on July 3, with an expected reduction of 810-860 yuan/ton, the largest single reduction of the year;
• Three-region crude oil change rate: -14.57%, with the negative value continuing to widen;
• Strait of Hormuz traffic volume: recovered to 60% of pre-conflict levels, with the risk of Middle East crude oil supply essentially cleared.
V. Latest Market Developments
Multiple leading investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have collectively lowered their full-year oil price forecasts, with institutions turning cautious overall and long positions significantly reduced. Expectations for a delayed Fed rate cut are rising, the U.S. dollar remains strong, continuing to pressure commodity valuations. Downstream transportation and chemical industries have slowed procurement, waiting for prices to stabilize, with market trading activity subdued. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on July 5, and the market generally fears that producing countries will continue the pace of production increases, further compressing the potential for an oil price rebound.
VI. Summary and Outlook
Overall, the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil has fully dissipated, with loose supply becoming the dominant theme. In the short term, oil prices still face downside risks. Low inventories can only slow the pace of decline but cannot provide strong support for a rebound. Operationally, refining and trading enterprises are advised to maintain low inventory levels and avoid blind bottom-fishing; downstream oil-consuming enterprises should postpone large-scale stockpiling and plan procurement after the OPEC+ meeting on July 5. Going forward, key focus should be on the OPEC+ meeting decision, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories, and global macroeconomic data to reasonably manage procurement pacing and hedge against raw material price volatility.
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