#CLARITYActEntersFinalCriticalStage
THE COUNTDOWN HAS BEGUN
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has entered one of its most decisive phases, with the opportunity for Senate approval narrowing as the 2026 legislative calendar rapidly fills. Supporters view this period as the final opportunity to move comprehensive crypto market legislation forward before congressional scheduling and political negotiations potentially delay action beyond this year.
LEGISLATIVE PROGRESS SO FAR
The proposal has already cleared several major hurdles. The U.S. House of Representatives approved its version of the legislation, while the Senate Banking Committee advanced an amended bill through a 15-9 vote on May 14, 2026. At the same time, the Senate Agriculture Committee developed its own framework covering digital assets classified as commodities.
The next objective is to combine both committee proposals into a unified Senate bill capable of attracting enough bipartisan support for a full Senate vote.
THE BIGGEST ROADBLOCK
Although negotiations continue, several important disagreements remain unresolved. The primary issue centers on ethics provisions requested by Senate Democrats.
Reports surrounding President Trump's estimated $1.4 billion crypto-related windfall have intensified debate, with Democrats seeking stronger safeguards to prevent the president and family members from benefiting from digital asset ventures while the administration oversees industry regulation.
Republican lawmakers recently introduced a revised proposal aimed at advancing negotiations, but Democrats and consumer advocacy organizations argued that the updated language still fails to address potential conflicts of interest, leaving bipartisan agreement out of reach.
WHAT THE BILL WOULD CHANGE
Beyond the political debate, the Clarity Act proposes one of the most significant regulatory restructurings in U.S. crypto history.
The legislation would establish a formal division of authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by determining whether individual digital assets should be regulated as securities or commodities.
This framework would replace years of enforcement-driven uncertainty with a unified federal classification system designed to provide clearer rules for issuers, exchanges, custodians, and institutional participants.
A KEY PROVISION UNDER DEBATE
One of the most closely watched sections of the Senate Banking Committee draft would prohibit cryptocurrency platforms from paying yield or reward programs on stablecoin deposits.
If retained in the final legislation, this provision could significantly affect yield-bearing stablecoin products and reshape how exchanges structure passive income opportunities for users.
TIME IS RUNNING SHORT
Congressional scheduling has added urgency to negotiations.
The Senate is scheduled to begin its state work period on August 10, remaining away from Washington until the middle of September. This leaves only a limited window for lawmakers to finalize negotiations, introduce a consolidated bill, and secure enough floor time for debate and voting.
With several competing legislative priorities already on the calendar, additional delays could make comprehensive action during 2026 increasingly difficult.
WHY THE INDUSTRY IS WATCHING
The outcome carries major implications for the entire digital asset sector.
Approval would establish the first comprehensive federal framework covering token classification, exchange operations, custody standards, and institutional participation. Greater regulatory certainty could encourage broader institutional investment and accelerate mainstream adoption.
Failure, however, would extend the current environment of regulatory uncertainty, leaving businesses to navigate inconsistent enforcement approaches while delaying greater institutional participation.
GLOBAL SIGNIFICANCE
The Clarity Act is being closely monitored beyond the United States. Governments developing their own digital asset regulations are watching whether the U.S. can successfully implement a comprehensive legal framework. Whatever the final outcome, the decision is expected to influence future crypto regulation well beyond American borders.
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#加密市场观察 FOMC July meeting preview: Are rate hikes near or far away?
The Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC meeting on July 28 and 29 in the Eastern Time zone of the U.S., and the interest rate decision will land at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30. Affected by recent turmoil in the Middle East, the risk of an inflation rebound has risen somewhat, which may also make this policy meeting a key focus for funds this week.
First segment: Market outlook expectations — referencing CME Fed Watch data
FedWatch is a free tool launched by the CME Group. By relying on trading data of interest rate futures, it calculates the probabilities of interest rate changes. Through observation of this data, we can often understand how market funds are betting on the Fed’s interest rate direction.
CME FedWatch July rate-hike probability: Currently, the U.S. federal funds rate remains in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Based on today’s market pricing, the probability that this meeting will raise the rate to 3.75%-4% (a 25bp hike) is 37.9%, and market expectations for a rate hike are still edging higher.
Second segment: The biggest change! The interpretation logic in the Waller and Powell era is completely different
During the tenure of former Chair Powell, he was accustomed to releasing guided signals and was willing to hint to the market, so people could infer a rough timetable for where rates might go in the future.
But after the new Chair Waller took office, the way he communicates has changed noticeably: he deliberately stays cautious, refuses to give advance projections about the future path of interest rates, and is also unwilling to clearly map out a rate path. Overall, policy adjustments follow economic data flexibly. Therefore, in Waller’s remarks at the July meeting press conference, we should no longer try to pick apart hints such as “in which month rate cuts will happen, in which month rate hikes will happen, and how rates will move in the future.” Instead, we should focus on the following directions: ① How Waller assesses current inflation pressures; ② His view on the current U.S. employment situation and economic resilience; ③ His thinking about future Fed reform and the progress so far. A rundown of Waller’s recently stated public views (July 15 — Senate hearing):
"I’m not satisfied with any inflation indicator."
"The labor market looks quite good, but inflation is not so optimistic."
"We will review our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see whether adjustments are needed to address inflation."
"The fact that the inflation rate has been consistently above the 2% target over the past five years is itself the Fed’s failure to do its job, and we must maintain zero tolerance for persistently high inflation."
"Tools to curb inflation include interest rate tools, and we have the ability to do this."……
Third segment: Pin down inflation — the U.S. June PCE data
PCE is the Fed’s core inflation gauge. The latest data for this round will be released at the same time on the evening of the 30th. Another inflation observation indicator, June CPI, has already shown a downward trend due to prior adjustments in oil prices. U.S. June core PCE price index month-over-month: previous 0.3% forecast 0.2% actual ? (to be released at 20:30 on July 30)