What Is Expected Shortfall (ES)? Why Can It Complement VaR by Revealing Tail Risks That VaR Misses?

In crypto markets, risk is not only about how much an account might lose, but also how large losses could become during extreme market conditions. Value at Risk (VaR) can estimate a loss threshold, but it cannot directly show the average loss beyond that threshold. This is where Expected Shortfall (ES) is valuable.

First, what is ES?

ES measures the average level of tail losses when losses exceed a specified VaR threshold. For example, at the same time horizon and 95% confidence level, ES foc

$PI You're investing in the future; add another 20,000

Who kept $SOL pinned around 86 for six hours.
From 86.11 to 87.07.
Less than a buck either way.
At 23:00 it surged to 88.02, then got knocked down level by level.
More than nine hours, shedding 1.6.
87.88, 86.6, 86.51, 86.58, 86.41.
Volume rolled over before price.
The 07:00 candle had 80k contracts, against an average volume of 208k.
Just 40% remains.
Shrinking volume doesn't mean there's no direction; both sides are waiting for the other to make the first move.
Only above 87.07 with hourly volume back to 200k can 88.41 come into play.
If 86.11 breaks, next stop is 85.1.
At 86.41, price is s

OpenAI said chats wouldn’t start using up your quota until December
But in reality, it’s already happening
If you have a weekly quota, it’ll prioritize using it during chats when you have credits
One Pro message costs about 50 credits
But right now, you can still chat with Pro even without any quota
Well, it’s a little window to grab some freebies, too

BTC closed the weekly candle at $74,968, falling below the 50-week moving average (around $75,200–$75,500) for the first time in two months. It failed to reclaim it on both days of the weekend and is still hovering around $75,006 this morning. #美国10月CPI即将公布

This breakdown is not an isolated signal: Glassnode data shows that whales on Hyperliquid have flipped from net long to net short. ETH is weaker, hitting a low of $2,083 last night and trading at $2,124 this morning, with the 200-day moving average (around $2,155) still hanging overhead. At yesterday’s close, only 5 of the top 100 coins w

#pi The real opportunity is at 0.01U and above. Buying in before 0.05 will leave you temporarily underwater, since less than 12% has been released so far. Stay steady—we've made it through seven or eight years, so there's no need to rush over the next two months

$XAUT 11.10 Gold outlook

Last night, gold staged a dip-and-rebound move, rising steadily from around 4085 to a high of 4148. Overall, the price action was optimistic.

Technically, the weekly chart previously bottomed and stabilized, while the daily chart has been moving higher with support from the Bollinger middle band. The hourly chart has seen repeated back-and-forth moves within a range, with lows gradually rising. Bullish momentum indicators remain intact, and the overall bullish bias is unchanged.

Trading reference: Consider scaling into long positions in the 4100–4115 range, with tar

11/10 Bitcoin:

The price is below the Bollinger middle band and above the lower band. The previous low of 73400 is a key support level. The daily bearish trend remains unchanged; after the decline, the price is moving sideways at lower levels to recover.

The MACD DIF remains below the DEA, maintaining a bearish structure with no signs of stabilization or reversal yet. Watch the 73408 support closely; the first resistance above is the Bollinger middle band.

Trading recommendation:

Short at 75800-75300, target 74000-73000, stop-loss 76000

(Market conditions change frequently; for reference

Tonight at 21:30, U.S. October CPI is due: Can BTC hold steady with expectations at 3.7%?
U.S. October CPI will be released at 21:30 Beijing time tonight, with the market expecting a year-over-year reading of 3.7%, unchanged from September. Don’t be fooled by the fact that the number hasn’t risen—this itself signals that inflation remains “stubbornly hot.” September CPI already came in above expectations at 3.7% (versus 3.6% expected), while core CPI also rose to 2.6%, driven by the combined persistence of oil prices and rents.
Why isn’t inflation coming down?
The keyword behind this inflation

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#StakeOnLaunchpoolToShare450KVLX #ShareWeekly
Introduction: A New Reward Opportunity for the Gate Community
Gate continues to expand opportunities for cryptocurrency users through its Launchpool platform. Its latest campaign introduces ValueX (VLX), offering participants an opportunity to stake supported digital assets and share a total reward pool of 454,546 VLX tokens.
This campaign is attracting attention because it allows eligible users to participate using BTC, ETH, or VLX instead of purchasing the newly distributed token directly from the market.
The initiative also highlights the growi

Has Bitcoin Hit Bottom? Analysts Flag Two Key Price Levels
Bitcoin starts the week under pressure, sliding below $74,000 as the market waits for a batch of key U.S. economic data.
The selling pressure quickly spread to altcoins. Ethereum dropped roughly 5.7% to $2,098, XRP fell 6.3% to $1.08, and Solana declined approximately 3.2% to $86.
⚠️ Personal market analysis only. NFA — manage risk and DYOR.
Educational content, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, deposit, or withdraw any asset. No paid promotion or referral/affiliate links.

$BTC 📈 $500000
$ETH 📈 $45000
$SOL 📈 $1500
$XRP 📈 $100
⚠️This is not my prediction⚠️

👇this is my prediction👇. 👇

I went through these weekly candles side by side.
Down for four weeks, and it finally turned green this week, but it’s recovered less than half a point.
26,000 coins on the day it got dumped; only 16,000 last night.
Price climbed back to 75K, but volume didn’t follow.
New York gold is at 4137, up another 0.5 points overnight.
Crypto’s total market cap shrank 1.3 points along with it. The money hasn’t come back here.
CPI tonight at 21:30.
I’m not touching longs. If it gets above 78K, call me wrong.

AI-powered, fully automated gold trading bot—placed a trade this morning. Challenge: 1,000 to 100k U. Your principal stays with your own Zhima; the bot only helps you trade. Every order is visible on your own exchange, with a maximum stop-loss of 2.5%

Here’s yesterday’s performance, guys:
Yesterday, my overall traffic surpassed 1 million.
Added 314 new followers
Replied to 1,100 comments and made 24 posts
I don’t want to be like this either🤦‍♂️—you made me do it.

Excellent $INIT , strong growth. I’ll follow this sharp rise and go long with the trend; there’s no sign of a sell-off yet, so going long still looks good😍😍😍$PIEVERSE $EDGE 😍😍😍