#Gate股票观点挑战 What will Warsh say at the Jackson Hole meeting? What will be the impact on global markets?
I. What situation does Warsh face?
Inflation out of control:
July PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, while core PCE rose 3.3%, far above the 2% target. The Federal Reserve has missed its target for 65 consecutive months, while CPI rose 0.28% month-on-month and is still accelerating. Tariff effects are being transmitted: clothing -1.4% (lagged), furniture -0.5% (lagged), with enormous pressure for a rebound ahead. The New York Fed manufacturing prices paid index hit a four-year high.
Long-term bond market disorder:
The 30Y yield is 4.743%, just one step away from the psychological 5% threshold (having previously touched 5.33%, a 19-year high). The 10Y yield is 4.127%, and the 2Y yield is 3.574%. The term premium continues to widen, with the market increasingly pricing in fiscal sustainability concerns.
Policy conflict:
Trump is demanding rate cuts to 3% or even lower, while Bessent is using the TGA account to push down long-end yields. But high inflation plus expanding fiscal deficits naturally prompt the market to demand higher yields as compensation. Warsh is caught between “political pressure” and “market reality.”
II. Three possible statements by Warsh
A. Ambiguous balance
Probability: 50%
Core content
Acknowledge the stickiness of inflation but attribute it to temporary factors; emphasize data dependence; neither commit to nor rule out rate cuts; weaken forward guidance.
Market impact
Short-term interest rates fluctuate slightly, long-end yields remain elevated, and the dollar weakens slightly.
B. Hawkish shift
Probability: 30%
Core content
Explicitly state that “inflation risks outweigh employment risks”; hint that a rate hike may be possible by year-end; refuse to pave the way for rate cuts.
Market impact
The dollar surges, U.S. stocks plunge, gold dives, and long-end yields accelerate upward.
C. Unprofessional statement
Probability: 20%
Core content
Misunderstand economic mechanisms, display internally inconsistent logic, and be viewed by the market as “Trump’s mouthpiece.”
Market impact
Confidence in the dollar is damaged, gold breaks above $5,000, and long-end yields surge uncontrollably.
Key judgment: Warsh will most likely follow scenario A—he has already publicly stated that he will “weaken forward guidance and listen more to the market,” and will not proactively create a shock. However, if inflation data continues to deteriorate, the probability of scenario B will rise rapidly.
III. Historical Jackson Hole: How did U.S. stocks perform?
On the day of the speech (S&P 500):
Average change: -0.12% (slight downside bias)
Median: +0.27%
Past 10 years
70% probability of gains, with a median gain of +0.39%
Past 20 years
55% probability of gains, with a median gain of +0.19%
One month after the speech:
Average gain: +0.12%
Past 10-year average: +1.37%, with a 70% probability of gains
Past 20-year average: +1.54%, with a 55% probability of gains
Statistical conclusion: Jackson Hole itself does not create trends, but if the Fed chair uses the platform to make a major policy shift—especially a hawkish one—the impact can be enormous. 2022 was a bloody lesson.
IV. Transmission to global markets
Four transmission channels:
Dollar → yuan → emerging markets: If Warsh follows the hawkish scenario B, a dollar rebound will increase depreciation pressure on the yuan and lead to foreign capital outflows from A-shares. However, China’s monetary policy is relatively independent, so the impact is controllable.
Long-end yields → global valuation anchor: If the 30Y yield breaks above 5%, valuations of global risk assets will come under pressure, especially high-valuation sectors such as the Nasdaq and growth stocks in A-shares.
Gold → restructuring of safe-haven demand: Under scenario C, if Warsh appears unprofessional, confidence in the dollar will be damaged and gold could quickly break above $5,000. The current $4,650 already reflects a considerable portion of expectations.
Bessent’s operations → changes in the U.S. Treasury market structure: Regardless of what Warsh says, Bessent has already begun using TGA buybacks to push down long-end yields (from September to November, $14–16 billion per quarter), but the scale is limited and cannot alter the trend.
Core logic: The current combination is “high inflation + high interest rates + high uncertainty.” Warsh’s speech may create short-term volatility, but over the medium term, gold and innovative drugs are among the few assets capable of simultaneously hedging against inflation uncertainty and policy uncertainty.
I. What situation does Warsh face?
Inflation out of control:
July PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, while core PCE rose 3.3%, far above the 2% target. The Federal Reserve has missed its target for 65 consecutive months, while CPI rose 0.28% month-on-month and is still accelerating. Tariff effects are being transmitted: clothing -1.4% (lagged), furniture -0.5% (lagged), with enormous pressure for a rebound ahead. The New York Fed manufacturing prices paid index hit a four-year high.
Long-term bond market disorder:
The 30Y yield is 4.743%, just one step away from the psychological 5% threshold (having previously touched 5.33%, a 19-year high). The 10Y yield is 4.127%, and the 2Y yield is 3.574%. The term premium continues to widen, with the market increasingly pricing in fiscal sustainability concerns.
Policy conflict:
Trump is demanding rate cuts to 3% or even lower, while Bessent is using the TGA account to push down long-end yields. But high inflation plus expanding fiscal deficits naturally prompt the market to demand higher yields as compensation. Warsh is caught between “political pressure” and “market reality.”
II. Three possible statements by Warsh
A. Ambiguous balance
Probability: 50%
Core content
Acknowledge the stickiness of inflation but attribute it to temporary factors; emphasize data dependence; neither commit to nor rule out rate cuts; weaken forward guidance.
Market impact
Short-term interest rates fluctuate slightly, long-end yields remain elevated, and the dollar weakens slightly.
B. Hawkish shift
Probability: 30%
Core content
Explicitly state that “inflation risks outweigh employment risks”; hint that a rate hike may be possible by year-end; refuse to pave the way for rate cuts.
Market impact
The dollar surges, U.S. stocks plunge, gold dives, and long-end yields accelerate upward.
C. Unprofessional statement
Probability: 20%
Core content
Misunderstand economic mechanisms, display internally inconsistent logic, and be viewed by the market as “Trump’s mouthpiece.”
Market impact
Confidence in the dollar is damaged, gold breaks above $5,000, and long-end yields surge uncontrollably.
Key judgment: Warsh will most likely follow scenario A—he has already publicly stated that he will “weaken forward guidance and listen more to the market,” and will not proactively create a shock. However, if inflation data continues to deteriorate, the probability of scenario B will rise rapidly.
III. Historical Jackson Hole: How did U.S. stocks perform?
On the day of the speech (S&P 500):
Average change: -0.12% (slight downside bias)
Median: +0.27%
Past 10 years
70% probability of gains, with a median gain of +0.39%
Past 20 years
55% probability of gains, with a median gain of +0.19%
One month after the speech:
Average gain: +0.12%
Past 10-year average: +1.37%, with a 70% probability of gains
Past 20-year average: +1.54%, with a 55% probability of gains
Statistical conclusion: Jackson Hole itself does not create trends, but if the Fed chair uses the platform to make a major policy shift—especially a hawkish one—the impact can be enormous. 2022 was a bloody lesson.
IV. Transmission to global markets
Four transmission channels:
Dollar → yuan → emerging markets: If Warsh follows the hawkish scenario B, a dollar rebound will increase depreciation pressure on the yuan and lead to foreign capital outflows from A-shares. However, China’s monetary policy is relatively independent, so the impact is controllable.
Long-end yields → global valuation anchor: If the 30Y yield breaks above 5%, valuations of global risk assets will come under pressure, especially high-valuation sectors such as the Nasdaq and growth stocks in A-shares.
Gold → restructuring of safe-haven demand: Under scenario C, if Warsh appears unprofessional, confidence in the dollar will be damaged and gold could quickly break above $5,000. The current $4,650 already reflects a considerable portion of expectations.
Bessent’s operations → changes in the U.S. Treasury market structure: Regardless of what Warsh says, Bessent has already begun using TGA buybacks to push down long-end yields (from September to November, $14–16 billion per quarter), but the scale is limited and cannot alter the trend.
Core logic: The current combination is “high inflation + high interest rates + high uncertainty.” Warsh’s speech may create short-term volatility, but over the medium term, gold and innovative drugs are among the few assets capable of simultaneously hedging against inflation uncertainty and policy uncertainty.
