Polaris_xbt

$BTC
Still riding the swing short from 80k.
Meanwhile we take some scalp opportunities when presented.

$BTC
Still in this short after taking TP1.
Daily 9/13 EMA are now acting as resistance.
Reclaiming these will make me reconsider my short

Altcoin dominance bounced 6% from the recent lows, carried singlehandedly by one coin.
$HYPE
Most altcoins are just drifting lower, and for a bigger bounce we need some capital flowing into a wide array of alts and a more sustained BTC rally.

$BTC Short is reaching its TP1
I'll be taking 40% off here.
You might've been bored because this is a slow one but such are swings. The biggest skill with them is holding and not doing anything with them.
While everyone on CT was calling altseason we knew the risk was high and we loaded on shorts.

$ETH
One of the most important charts for me regarding the spot positioning.
Alts vs ETH
Bottoms on ETH happen when eth underperforms everything including, altcoins.
That can be seen as spike up in this chart.
As you can see the chart is grinding up and if we have a big spike in the next few months that signifies great weakness of ETH and will be the prime buying opportinuty.
The last spike we had was when it dropped to 1400 in april of 2025. Shortly afterwards it did 3x from there.

Decision time for crypto

$SOL Short
Closed fully for 2.6R.

$BTC
No matter what people say the current bottom on BTC simply does not look like a true bottom.
When most are calling for altseason, that is not it.
The true bottom takes almost a year to form and a lot more ranging.

ethereum:native
Been sharing this chart for months in advance.
Most were baited expecting altseason right out of the bear market... but it simply doesn't work that way.
We need eth to put macro bottom before even a hint of altseason.
Green zone is where I intend to buy a lot of spot eth. If BTC drops to new lows that means 1500 per single ETH.

The only thing that is working for bulls is that we are below the trendline on USDT.D
If this gets reclaimed tho, we are in for a classic bear market with the lows likely in november or december on BTC and everything else.

solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112
Swing short with zero drawdown xD
Called live in the group.
Still have BTC ETH and SOL short opened but shaved some nice profits here.

$BTC
Some of you know I track the Commitment of Traders report regularly.
COT shows the positioning of different types of traders - institutions, hedge funds, and retail. Retail is considered the "dumb money" and they're usually the last ones in.
The report just dropped yesterday and retail positioning had its biggest spike since the 2021 bull market top. This lines up with what my sentiment chart was already showing last week.
So what's the plan?
We already have three solid swing positions open. Over the next week I'll look to add a few more shorts if we get some pumps - if not, I won't chase

ETH
Looks incredibly sh*tty.
I already have one swing short and I think new lows happen sometime later this year.. and that is where I plan to buy some nice spot bag

the-open-network:native
Not a place to ape in.
For now it looks like simple range bottom to range high.
If we have a monthly close above the resistance we can look for buys.

$VVV
Very basic setup... the only issue is that it took an entire year to set up and most simply did not have this token on their watchlist.
Look at other altcoins... by the end of this bear market we will have dozens of these setups

The Altcoin Risk Metric is my custom model designed to track overall risk conditions in the altcoin market.
It combines multiple data points such as leverage, OI, sentiment, funding, and positioning into a single score to help identify when the market is overheated or when conditions become favorable for swing entries.
I use 2 versions:
🔸Standard Risk Metric - for big spot buys (will post when is a good time to buy)
🔸90-Day Rolling Risk Metric - very useful for spotting local tops and overheated conditions
Below is a snapshot of the latest 90-day rolling risk metric. As of the last two days,

$ETH is underperforming everything.
It is going down against BTC and TOTAL 3 as well. This is usually the case during its bottoming phase.
I have prepared to load up on ETH towards the end of the year as I think the macro double bottom is in the making.