Polaris_xbt

There is a solid chance altcoins bottomed in february.
The february marked 450 days from their cycle high which is in line with prior bear market bottoms.
Remember... this cycle $ETH and Alts >> $BTC

$SUI
Pretty much the entire altcoin market is trying to put in its first higher low on the macro timeframe.
We either break out soon or we have one more nuke in Q4.
In any scenario it is good to have at least some sort of spot exposure here.
Rest can be added eather on breakout or on final wash in Q4

Another boring weekend on bitcoin:native.
Why no follow-through?
▫️ The volatility spike instantly retraced
▫️ We're back almost at all-time lows in vol
▫️ 2023 had this exact setup - an initial spike that just died down into months of nothing
I think we're in for a few more boring months before this actually goes anywhere.

bitcoin-cash:native
HARD rejection at major level.
Looking for new lows to accumulate some

$SOL vs bitcoin:native
Bouncing from the lower range.
I doubt this goes much higher on BTC pair as I think we still need few more months of accumulation before it starts trending again...

$BTC
Since the inception of bitcoin the bear market ended on the break of the logarithmic trendline.
This is 5th time it is happening and for me it is very hard to believe that this signals anything else but the end of the bear market

$XRP
Given how slow this is moving downward, there's a decent chance the lower support level never even gets tested.
This current area is a solid spot for spot plays.

Others vs $ETH
If you are into lower cap altcoins this is a good guide on when to buy those vs ETH.
Since recent eth spike alts have been underperforming severely.... but this underperformance won't last for much longer.
The lower this goes the stronger the alts will rally

$ADA
Monthly reclaim will be a nice spot buying trigger.

$INJ vs $BTC
Looking very good.
▫️ Monthly level reclaim already in play
▫️ Confirmation is local strength - once that shows, we hop on
Last cycle it was an early outperformer as well...

$DOGE
If 0.067 was the cycle low for DOGE, we shouldn't go much lower than 0.08 on the retest.
Good RR for swing longs

$BTC
Slightly below HTF resistance but still local structure gives us a short setup so worth a shot here.

It's funny how everyone here somehow caught the exact bottom :D
I didn't. I'm sitting at roughly 30% spot deployed, but I have a plan, and I'm sticking to it.
▫️ What I don't like is the smug mocking
▫️ What I really don't like is the FOMO-baiting coming from the same accounts that shorted the bottom a few months back
All for engagement.
And the result? People ape into altcoins right at the local top, get rugged by their own timeline, and the whole cycle repeats. Everyone forgets. Again. :D

Since the June low, altcoins have been underperforming ETH severely.
▫️ If this continues, the asymmetry trade rotates away from ETH and toward altcoins
▫️ Which means a larger % of the portfolio should be in alts vs ETH

Altcoins have likely established the bear market bottom range.
We have roughly 3 to 6 months to accumulate at a heavy discount.
After that…
Just enjoy the ride.

Bitcoin Dominance
We are likely entering an expansion phase soon on BTC dominance.
Only after a big push in BTC dominance can we expect proper altseason.
Anything before that is just a local spike imho

When to buy altcoins
Last cycle it took 500 days for alts to finally start moving aggressively.
As it stands now this is very likely just a local spike similar to one we had in Jan 2023.
For altseason we need at least a month of BTC outperforming literally everything else... and I don't think we are still there.
I would not FOMO here, chill and DCA in the next 6 months