polaris_xbt

Where are we in the cycle?
Every time TOTAL has broken the log trendline, the bear market was over.
But on the other side of it, there was always another good buying opportunity.
▫️ Each opportunity window came after a 2W Stoch RSI bearish cross
▫️ That cross almost always ran all the way down to the lower section of the indicator
▫️ For now, we’ve just started curving down
I’m not saying we make a new low, but it may take a while before we form the actual higher low.
My plan is to DCA into $ETH and altcoins over the coming months.

$BTC
Bearish until the parabola breaks.
▫️ We likely drop one more time
▫️ Then develop a range inside the monthly FVG
▫️ Then revert back up
To catch all the trades live in TG:

$SUI
First DCA zone tagged.
Lower zones have much more limit orders and will come with larger correction in BTC if we get it (70% odds imho)

$ZEC
October PA looks like consolidation before a further drop.
▫️ Clean equal lows sitting at 1040, which likely get taken out
▫️ I wouldn’t look for longs before they’re cleared
▫️ Bottom is somewhere below 1000, and very possibly even below 700

$ETH
Three-day bear div played out again.
I pointed out this chart weeks ago and said ETH would underperform for a while, like it always does after a 3-day bear div.
▫️ Previous drops ran from -18% to -40%
▫️ So far ETHBTC is down 16%
▫️ I wouldn’t be overly bearish on the pair anymore
The signal did its job. Now the edge is in not overstaying the trade.

One month ago I flagged this chart. We were at the trendline that has marked the top every single time over the past 4 years.
Instead of aping into ETH at 2800, you now have ETH at 2200, with possibly slightly lower still to come.
▫️ The trendline rejection played out
▫️ We’re officially back in the DCA zone for $ETH and altcoins

Some observations about yesterday.
Prior to the hack, we saw an insane increase in altcoin OI.
BTC and ETH were mostly chopping while alts suddenly started pumping 5–10% out of nowhere.
That immediately rang alarm bells.
Historically, these altcoin-only pumps have often been great shorting opportunities. We've seen similar setups around local tops multiple times, including before the FTX collapse.
What I did:
• Shorted $ETH on Breakout
• Got some of my ETH and altcoin spot limit buys filled during the spike
• DCA'd a bit more than usual this morning
And that's pretty much it.
Current market st

$AAVE
Once the parabola broke it started going straight down, no retest, nothing.
Looking to accumulate some spot around $100 or lower.

$IMX
Might be good time to look for small long setups on few selected alts.
I am still leaning bearish but we are approaching clean support zone on many of them and I think scalp longs make sense here.
Please be mindful of risk as there is high chance that this bounce is just temporary and we continue the grind down soon.

The main narrative right now is that $BTC is the best crypto investment and alts are dead.
Last cycle it was the opposite. People ignored BTC, went all in on alts, and lost it all.
▫️ I’m not saying BTC won’t pump
▫️ I’m saying alts will pump WAY more

$ETH
So far it looks like every spike up is just an opportunity to add to shorts.
If eth fails to reclaim 2400 we are in for a much longer correction than most anticipated.
Opportunity :)

$DOGE
Dipped into the old value area and is boucing back strong.
I am betting heavy on doge outperformance this cycle and in the context of high timeframe this is a very very good zone for spot allocation.

Two-week Stoch RSI just printed a bearish close on altcoins.
▫️ Once this cross happens, altcoins usually take 3-4 months to bottom
▫️ That puts the likely bottom in the next 60-90 days
▫️ Good time to start DCA-ing

Stablecoin dominance
Bouncing from the key area.
It was not realistic that we break it at first attempt so likely we see a bigger push up similar to what we had in 2023.

$AAVE
Lost its parabolic uptrend.
Now the EMAs are curving to the downside and are acting only as a good short entries.
This could easily go -20% soon

$SOL
EMAs are starting to curve down and are now resistance.
Usually when this happens we reverse it only after 3rd attempt or more... so we could have more downside to go.
Absolute stellar buy area would be $85.