polaris_xbt

$BTC
Plan the trade, trade the plan.
Ignore the hype.
Literally the only way to make it in this market.

Alts vs $ETH
Since ETH tagged 1500, it has been outperforming altcoins.
▫️ The trendline is broken
▫️ Altcoins are likely to underperform ETH in the coming months as well
▫️ If we tag the green zone, it’s a great area to load up on altcoins, IMO

$ETH looks really good on a lower timeframe.
On the higher timeframe, though, we still need to break the bearish EMAs.
▫️ So far we’ve had 3 rejections
▫️ A daily close above 2400 flips it to full risk-on mode

Altcoin risk chart update
Custom-made risk metric once again doing its thing :)
▫️ Late September: extended levels reached, my main signal to start looking for shorts
▫️ Entered 3 big swing shorts on $ETH , $SOL and $ARB
▫️ Now the metric has dropped significantly, and it’s time to start considering some buys

$ENA
Big rejection at the HTF range low.
Looking at local levels 0.12 looks like a good spot buy zone for a first higher low.

$BTC and Stablecoin Market Cap
Last cycle, BTC only bottomed once stablecoin market cap bottomed.
▫️ Right now, stablecoin market cap is still going lower
▫️ Not only that, the decline is accelerating
Without fresh money, there is no upside in crypto.
Price follows liquidity. Right now, liquidity is leaving.

Where are we in the cycle?
Every time TOTAL has broken the log trendline, the bear market was over.
But on the other side of it, there was always another good buying opportunity.
▫️ Each opportunity window came after a 2W Stoch RSI bearish cross
▫️ That cross almost always ran all the way down to the lower section of the indicator
▫️ For now, we’ve just started curving down
I’m not saying we make a new low, but it may take a while before we form the actual higher low.
My plan is to DCA into $ETH and altcoins over the coming months.

$BTC
Bearish until the parabola breaks.
▫️ We likely drop one more time
▫️ Then develop a range inside the monthly FVG
▫️ Then revert back up
To catch all the trades live in TG:

$SUI
First DCA zone tagged.
Lower zones have much more limit orders and will come with larger correction in BTC if we get it (70% odds imho)

$ZEC
October PA looks like consolidation before a further drop.
▫️ Clean equal lows sitting at 1040, which likely get taken out
▫️ I wouldn’t look for longs before they’re cleared
▫️ Bottom is somewhere below 1000, and very possibly even below 700

$ETH
Three-day bear div played out again.
I pointed out this chart weeks ago and said ETH would underperform for a while, like it always does after a 3-day bear div.
▫️ Previous drops ran from -18% to -40%
▫️ So far ETHBTC is down 16%
▫️ I wouldn’t be overly bearish on the pair anymore
The signal did its job. Now the edge is in not overstaying the trade.

One month ago I flagged this chart. We were at the trendline that has marked the top every single time over the past 4 years.
Instead of aping into ETH at 2800, you now have ETH at 2200, with possibly slightly lower still to come.
▫️ The trendline rejection played out
▫️ We’re officially back in the DCA zone for $ETH and altcoins

Some observations about yesterday.
Prior to the hack, we saw an insane increase in altcoin OI.
BTC and ETH were mostly chopping while alts suddenly started pumping 5–10% out of nowhere.
That immediately rang alarm bells.
Historically, these altcoin-only pumps have often been great shorting opportunities. We've seen similar setups around local tops multiple times, including before the FTX collapse.
What I did:
• Shorted $ETH on Breakout
• Got some of my ETH and altcoin spot limit buys filled during the spike
• DCA'd a bit more than usual this morning
And that's pretty much it.
Current market st

$AAVE
Once the parabola broke it started going straight down, no retest, nothing.
Looking to accumulate some spot around $100 or lower.

$IMX
Might be good time to look for small long setups on few selected alts.
I am still leaning bearish but we are approaching clean support zone on many of them and I think scalp longs make sense here.
Please be mindful of risk as there is high chance that this bounce is just temporary and we continue the grind down soon.

The main narrative right now is that $BTC is the best crypto investment and alts are dead.
Last cycle it was the opposite. People ignored BTC, went all in on alts, and lost it all.
▫️ I’m not saying BTC won’t pump
▫️ I’m saying alts will pump WAY more

$ETH
So far it looks like every spike up is just an opportunity to add to shorts.
If eth fails to reclaim 2400 we are in for a much longer correction than most anticipated.
Opportunity :)