Yet another reading came in hotter than expected.
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, versus expectations of 0.3%; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%.
This morning, Fed Governor Waller just said that if core inflation hit 0.3%, the Fed should consider a 50-basis-point hike in December. And then the data came in right on the threshold.
U.S. stocks, gold, and $BTC all plunged.
Last month, I said that no rate hike in December would be a blessing.
Now it looks like even a 25-basis-point hike would be a blessing. 🫠

ETF investors are selling bitcoin:native again.
US spot ETFs saw $696M of net outflows on Friday, the largest single day since January.
Only two days in the past year saw larger outflows, and both came before price fell further. A return to steady inflows would ease that pressure.

The CPI data came out, and it wasn’t particularly good. Earlier today, Waller had already spoken, preparing the market in advance. Various assets didn’t fall by much, and crypto assets didn’t see the bloodbath everyone had expected.

Meanwhile, after the CPI data came out, the U.S. secretary of state and various U.S. officials said that we were close to reaching an agreement with Iran and didn’t need to take further military action. This was clearly an attempt to soothe the market.

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$JELLYJELLY #Share My Holding Returns#
$JELLYJELLY After closing the LONG position, open a SHORT position at the exact moment.
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Damn, the probability of a December rate hike has reached 96%, and Bitcoin has already hit a new low of 73,500
U.S. October CPI came in well above expectations across the board, completely crushing hopes for a Fed rate cut! 📉
Market forecasts have laid their cards on the table: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December has surged to 86%, and adding the 10% probability of a 50-basis-point hike, a December rate hike is virtually a certainty (as high as 96%)!
Liquidity is tightening across the board, and high interest rates are directly puncturing risk assets. U.S. stocks plunged

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🚨 $NQ Trade Recap 🚨
#NQ took the CPI low in pre-market. IN NY open it took a Swing low 👀
Gave 2M CISD and FVG after the sweep $NQ
+4.1 R:R 🔒💥
Main TP was London and Asia High. Happy with Execution and trade handling
#NQ #NASDAQ #Futures #Trading

Congratulations to the guys in the livestream—we’ve once again successfully caught the falling knife and taken profits. Keep your hands in check and manage your positions well; consistent profitability is within reach. Keep up the good work and achieve even greater success, everyone!#美伊谈判出现新进展 $ETH

The 25-basis-point hike is already priced in. The real pain is this: even after this hike, it may not be over.
Core #CPI rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month tonight, above expectations. Before the data came out, Waller had said that at this level, a 50-basis-point hike in December should be considered.
But I’m more concerned about another question: Is the market bracing for one hit in December, or more hits next year?
First, the data:
Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus expectations of 0.3%.
Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, versus expectations of 0.2%.
Core CPI has been

$HEMI is showing bullish momentum as buyers push toward the next resistance zone. The current breakout attempt looks promising, with $0.00440 emerging as an important level to watch. Holding above the entry zone could support further upside, while losing nearby support may weaken the bullish structure.

Key figures

$0.00430–$0.00433 — Entry zone

$0.00425 — Key support and invalidation level

$0.00437 — First resistance

$0.00440 — Major breakout target

$0.00445 — Next upside level

Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above $0.00437 could open the door toward $0.00440 and potentially $0.00445

Still missed out on this huge crash. Held onto my short positions for several days, then the price spiked as soon as I closed them. What a shame, but no big deal—as long as I came out unscathed

$ARIA My balance fell from $18k to just $3,200 on this move. I watched that wick at 0.166 yesterday and didn’t dare make a move. Today it climbed above 0.2, up 18% in 24 hours, with $81 million in trading volume—that kind of volume isn’t driven by retail traders. I reviewed my trades: last time, I lost money chasing the breakout at 0.19, only to get caught in the false breakout to 0.2184. I’ve learned my lesson. Now I’m placing staggered buy orders between 0.185 and 0.195, with a stop-loss below 0.166; if it breaks below that, I’ll accept the loss. The previous high at 0.2184 is resistance, so

🚨 JUST IN: A massive $179 MILLION in leveraged LONG positions has been liquidated across the crypto market in just 60 MINUTES!

S&P 500 positioning faces a test this week: CPI and NVIDIA earnings land back to back.

Rise and shine friends happy Tuesday!
It’s my birthday! 🥳🎈
We are still out here grinding though! Let’s go make that money 💯

Expectations for price changes in the year ahead eased for gas and were unchanged for food but rose for medical care, college education, rent and gold per October @NewYorkFed Survey of Consumer Expectations

🔥The Jensen Huang affair: Is Nvidia really smuggling chips to China?
When Jensen Huang admitted to having an affair two days ago, most of the attention focused on the CEO’s private life. But behind the woman suspected of being a “Chinese spy” is a little-known company in Singapore: Megaspeed.
The story began in 10/2022, when the US banned the sale of high-end AI chips to China. In 03/2023, 7Road Holdings, a Chinese gaming company and predecessor of Megaspeed, transferred its shares in its Singapore subsidiary to Huang Le Limited. The company is registered in the British Virgin Islands and con

The probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December has risen to 85%, and the probability of a 25% rate hike is now 99%; everyone should open fewer long positions