#直通IPO第三期Anthropic I’m most bullish on Anthropic selling Claude into enterprise workflows. Revenue is primarily usage-based, and as customers move from trials to long-term purchases, the growth potential is far greater than simply selling models.
Most promising growth drivers
Existing customers are using more and more: As of the end of September, there were 11,900 customers paying more than $100,000 annually, with net revenue retention of around 900%.
Agents drive usage: Claude Code and Cowork can continuously complete tasks, and complex tasks consume more compute, increasing revenue.
Low penetration of enterprise budgets: Top enterprises spend an average of less than 0.1% of their total expenses with Anthropic, leaving significant room to expand.
Improving inference efficiency: In the first half of 2026, compute and infrastructure costs accounted for about 55% of revenue, down from 201% in the same period last year.
Offering plan
Anthropic plans to offer shares at $70–78 each, with a fully diluted valuation of up to about $1.405 trillion. Pricing is set for November 18, trading begins on November 19, under the ticker “ANT.”
I will participate in this offering, but only as a watch position. The high valuation already prices in very high growth expectations; going forward, revenue growth, operating profit, and cash flow still need to deliver.
The main risks are also clear: Long-term compute purchase commitments amount to about $900.9 billion, with nearly half due by the end of 2030; about 48% of revenue comes through cloud marketplace channels, which also incur channel costs.
So my view is: The business model is attractive, but this is a high-expectation, high-volatility asset, so it is more appropriate to keep the position within an affordable range.
Most promising growth drivers
Existing customers are using more and more: As of the end of September, there were 11,900 customers paying more than $100,000 annually, with net revenue retention of around 900%.
Agents drive usage: Claude Code and Cowork can continuously complete tasks, and complex tasks consume more compute, increasing revenue.
Low penetration of enterprise budgets: Top enterprises spend an average of less than 0.1% of their total expenses with Anthropic, leaving significant room to expand.
Improving inference efficiency: In the first half of 2026, compute and infrastructure costs accounted for about 55% of revenue, down from 201% in the same period last year.
Offering plan
Anthropic plans to offer shares at $70–78 each, with a fully diluted valuation of up to about $1.405 trillion. Pricing is set for November 18, trading begins on November 19, under the ticker “ANT.”
I will participate in this offering, but only as a watch position. The high valuation already prices in very high growth expectations; going forward, revenue growth, operating profit, and cash flow still need to deliver.
The main risks are also clear: Long-term compute purchase commitments amount to about $900.9 billion, with nearly half due by the end of 2030; about 48% of revenue comes through cloud marketplace channels, which also incur channel costs.
So my view is: The business model is attractive, but this is a high-expectation, high-volatility asset, so it is more appropriate to keep the position within an affordable range.
