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#布伦特原油下跌3% #Gate广场中秋团圆局 The global rate-hike wave is exerting dual pressure on oil prices. The three major central banks of the US, Europe, and Japan have raised rates in rare synchrony, marking the first such occurrence since 2006. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points has reached 87.3%, while the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike is extremely high. Rate hikes are pressuring oil prices through both demand and financial channels, and the IEA has increased its forecast for this year's decline in global oil demand by 940,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day.
Supply-side constraints remain. The IEA expects global oil supply to decrease by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, delaying the market's return to oversupply until 2027. VLCC freight rates from the Middle East to China have reached $982,000 per day, while freight from the Gulf of Oman to China is equivalent to approximately $11.50 per barrel, a record high.
Short-term outlook: Brent is expected to fluctuate widely within a central range of $96 to $118 per barrel from September to November. If Saudi Arabia's pipeline resumes operations as scheduled and rate hikes are implemented, oil prices may fall further to around $100; if pipeline repairs are obstructed or geopolitical tensions escalate again, Brent may retest levels above $110.
Light positions and wait-and-see are recommended, pending further developments in the ceasefire agreement and guidance from the Federal Reserve's rate-setting meeting on September 18. $XBRUSD