Rules and logic to remember when trading, useful for judging market trends.
1. Any decline in an ascending channel is a pullback; enter
2. Any rise in a descending channel is a rebound; sell
3. A sideways market at high levels means distribution; sell
4. A sideways market at low levels means accumulation; buy
5. Enter on minor declines in an uptrend
6. Sell on minor rises in a downtrend
7. Support that holds for too long will break; sell
8. Resistance that holds for too long will break; buy

#股票交易分享挑战 U.S.-listed memory stocks surge: SK hynix jumps 9%
On August 12 local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, while AI-related stocks surged across the board and became the focus of the market. The Dow fell 0.04% to 53,770.27, the S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 7,748.50, and the Nasdaq rose 0.54% to 26,588.49. The indexes were uneventful, but individual stocks presented a very different picture.
Memory chip stocks were the brightest stars of the day. SK hynix surged more than 9%, SanDisk rose more than 5%, Western Digital gained more than 3%, Seagate rose more than 7%, and Micron Technology climbed more than 4%. Semiconductor equipment stocks also strengthened across the board, with Applied Materials up more than 4%, Lam Research up more than 4%, and KLA up more than 3%. Optical communications and new-cloud sectors surged together, reigniting capital flows across the entire AI computing power industry chain.
The catalyst for this round of gains in memory stocks is the steadily heating demand for AI computing power. Goldman Sachs recently released a report clearly stating that memory price increases will continue through mid-2027, although the pace of increases is slowing. This assessment reassured the market: the explosive growth of AI servers is pulling memory chips out of their fate of “cyclical oversupply” and pushing them into a new cycle of “supply falling short of demand.”
The logic chain behind this is clear: AI training and inference require massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), while HBM capacity is firmly controlled by the three giants SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron. On the demand side, GPU makers such as NVIDIA are placing orders at a frantic pace, while on the supply side, capacity is constrained by advanced packaging, making the supply-demand gap difficult to close in the short term. Rising memory prices directly translate into profit upside for these manufacturers.
For A-share investors, this round of gains in U.S. memory stocks has a direct read-through effect. A-share memory stocks, such as GigaDevice, Longsys, and Montage Technology, as well as memory modules and packaging and testing, have historically been highly sensitive to overseas memory price increases. However, it is important to note that A-share memory stocks do not always move in sync—the technological gap in domestic memory and the position in the inventory cycle will both affect the strength and pace of any catch-up gains.
A more important question is: how far can this AI memory upcycle go? Goldman Sachs says price increases will continue through mid-2027, but this is based on the premise that AI capital expenditures do not cool. If any signs of a slowdown emerge in major technology companies’ AI investments, memory stocks’ valuations will bear the brunt. The current frenzy in U.S. memory stocks is essentially a collective bet on the prospects for AI computing power. $NVDA

#10年期国债收益率再跌破1.7% Market Divergence Widens, Short-Term Trading Enters a Wait-and-See Phase
As the 10-year government bond yield broke through the key 1.7% level, the market's bullish-bearish divergence rapidly widened, institutions generally slowed their trading pace, and the bond market officially entered a wait-and-see phase, making short-term trend-driven moves more difficult.
Bosera Funds analyzed that month-end liquidity in July was loose and expectations for easing policies strengthened, driving a rapid compression in ultra-long-end spreads and pushing the 10-year government bond yield below 1.7%. However, the market currently lacks the implementation of substantive incremental policies. The bond market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term, and further declines in yields will require the concrete implementation of easing policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts.
Liang Weichao, chief fixed-income analyst at China Post Securities, further pointed out that the downward breakout in the 10-year government bond yield was largely a byproduct of trading sentiment in the ultra-long end. There is considerable divergence in expectations regarding the upside potential after the breakout. Interbank negotiable certificate of deposit rates have already shown a rigid tendency to be “easier to rise than fall,” with market expectations even pointing to a test of 1.5%; meanwhile, persistently expensive funding costs will continue to create marginal pressure on banks’ funding costs, thereby affecting banks’ demand for short-duration bonds and placing some constraints on the bond market’s short-term performance.
In summary, the bond market is currently in a phase of trading driven by “expectations first, fundamentals lagging,” and the risk-reward profile has declined somewhat after long-end yields broke through key levels. In the short term, the market will repeatedly trade around the pace of policy implementation, economic recovery data, and changes in liquidity conditions. One-way trend moves will be difficult to sustain, so a range-trading approach is recommended, with a focus on tracking the subsequent implementation of monetary policy and monthly macroeconomic data to capture structural allocation opportunities.$CHCUSD ‌