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Weekly Long-Term Analysis
Last week, due to the sudden positive impact of U.S. Treasury buybacks, the crypto market instantly heated up and liquidated most short positions. Bitcoin rose from $64k to around $80k, while Ethereum rose from $1,900 to $2,500.
So, has the bull market really arrived? Can Bitcoin return to $120k? Can Ethereum rise to $4,000 again?
If the Federal Reserve is willing to continue cutting interest rates, the above could naturally happen.
However, short-term buybacks of U.S. Treasuries cannot instantly resolve the enormous overall size of the U.S. Treasury debt.
Oil-driven inflation is still affecting the Federal Reserve's decisions, and no definitive ceasefire news has emerged from Iran.
As long as the inflation problem remains unresolved, even if the Federal Reserve does not choose to raise interest rates, it will only remain on hold.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are now testing key resistance levels. I believe chasing long positions from the highs is unwise. Key inflation PCE and CPI data will be released in the coming weeks, and judging from current oil prices, these two figures should not be as favorable as expected. If this triggers a market pullback, those looking to resume spot accumulation can add to their positions around $71k for Bitcoin and around $2,100 for Ethereum.
What can be confirmed is that this rise is a clear reversal signal from a bear market to a bull market. However, we still need to give the market a two-week observation period. Many people believe that the four-year crypto cycle should bottom in October this year. I have said several times that this cycle can only serve as a reference and cannot be fully trusted. Ultimately, I informed everyone that spot operations should begin two months earlier. Even though we did not catch the absolute bottom, we still used a quarter of our position to catch this market move. Although there are some regrets, they are understandable.