#ETH Is the ETH FOMO moment approaching? Tom Lee analyzes how Fed policy could affect crypto’s year-end trajectory
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC on August 31 that if the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in September, stocks could see a strong rebound, marking the September 15 FOMC meeting as a turning point. He believes that September’s seasonal weakness, combined with market expectations for a rate hike, could instead create an upside surprise.
From a macro perspective, interest rates determine fiat liquidity and the valuation of risk assets. If rates are not raised, this would provide a new catalyst for consolidating crypto assets. As of September 1, 2026, CME FedWatch showed a 34.6% probability of rates remaining unchanged in September and a 65.4% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Although a rate hike remains the base case, the nearly 35% probability of no hike is not negligible. Goldman Sachs also previously forecast no rate hike in September, citing continued weakness in employment and inflation data. Uncertainty over the rate path is the starting point for Lee’s assessment—if the expected rate hike fails to materialize, risk assets will have ample narrative room for a recovery rebound.
Why Lee sees Ethereum as the asset with the greatest FOMO potential before year-end
Lee stated clearly that from September through year-end, crypto assets, especially Ethereum, will become the assets with the strongest FOMO effect. He believes Bitcoin’s recent rise is only the “first phase” and expects institutional allocations to accelerate in the fourth quarter. The core of his view lies in Ethereum’s structural advantages: Lee compares Ethereum to “digital land,” with long-term store-of-value characteristics, while staking can generate an annualized yield of approximately 1.75% to 3%. Regarding price targets, Lee believes ETH should exceed $5,000 in the next bull market; with asset tokenization and AI demand added, it could “easily” surpass $10,000 within 1 to 2 years. He expects the ETH/BTC exchange rate to rise as Ethereum’s relative usage increases, with the key drivers being Wall Street’s on-chain tokenization and the widespread adoption of AI Agents. What narrative foundation do historical FOMO rallies and the current market structure provide? Reviewing history, ETH reached an all-time high of $4,808.74 in November 2021 and $4,091 in March 2024, while the MVRV ratio reached 2.35, with both periods accompanied by significantly overheated market sentiment.
History shows that FOMO rallies often emerge after substantial price increases, and their sustainability depends on support from fundamental narratives. As of September 1, according to Gate market data, ETH was trading in the $2,450-$2,475 range, far below its historical high. This means that if catalysts emerge, the upside potential itself could ignite FOMO sentiment. Technically, ETH has formed a consolidation bottom in the $2,380-$2,420 range on the 4-hour timeframe; a high-volume break above $2,550 could trigger a rise toward $2,720. On the supply side, approximately 42.24 million ETH has been staked, while the validator queue has reached 2.23 million ETH. With the freely circulating supply continuing to shrink, a surge in demand could amplify upside elasticity.
Are institutional fund flows already validating the ETH FOMO narrative?
Institutional fund flows provide verifiable data supporting Lee’s forecast. Second-quarter 2026 13F filings showed Morgan Stanley’s ETH holdings increasing 18.6% quarter over quarter, JPMorgan’s rising 67.3%, and Bank of America’s holdings surging approximately 29-fold. Spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately $1.5 billion since August 12, including a single-day net inflow of $225.8 million on August 28, their strongest performance in 10 months. Over the same period, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $202 million in outflows, indicating that institutions are specifically rotating into Ethereum. BitMine’s own holdings are even more significant: As of August 23, it held approximately 5.8476 million ETH, representing 4.8% of the total supply, and continued accumulating through equity financing. Its staking yield is sufficient to cover dividend payments. This “buy-only” strategy is itself a major bet on ETH’s long-term value.
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