What Is Strategy Overfitting? Why Should We Be More Cautious When a Historical Return Curve Looks Better?

In cryptocurrency trading, some strategies have their parameters repeatedly adjusted until their historical return curves look very smooth and their win rates are high. But once they enter the real market, their performance drops significantly. This may be strategy overfitting: the strategy has adapted too closely to specific patterns in historical data without learning to handle future market changes.

First, how does overfitting occur?

Common causes include repeatedly adjusting paramet

What Is Trading Slippage? Why Can Ideal Fill Prices in Backtests Differ Significantly from Real Trading Results?

In cryptocurrency trading, the price traders see is not necessarily the final execution price. When an order is submitted, rapid market price movements, insufficient liquidity, or large order sizes can cause the actual execution price to deviate from expectations. This difference is called trading slippage. It may seem small, but it can steadily erode a strategy’s returns.

First, what is trading slippage?

Suppose you plan to buy BTC at 50,000 USDT but end up executing at 50,010 U

Jupiter Lend's AMM traded a record $276.67M in the seven days to November 6, more than double the $126.94M of the week to October 9.
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The setup looks good

Why Can You Lose Money in Perpetual Futures Even When You Get the Direction Right?

In crypto futures trading, there’s a particularly frustrating situation: you correctly predict whether BTC will rise or fall, but your account still ends up losing money. The problem may not be your market call, but rather leverage, position size, trading costs, and execution.

First, excessive leverage. Suppose you open a position with a notional value of 10,000 USDT. If the price moves 1% in your favor, the theoretical profit or loss is about 100 USDT; if it moves 1% against you, the theoretical loss is also

What is a market maker? How do they provide liquidity to the market by continuously offering buy and sell quotes, and what risks do they take on?

In the cryptocurrency market, traders need someone to sell when they want to buy, and someone to buy when they want to sell. By continuously offering buy and sell prices, market makers help create more continuous quotes, reduce waiting times for some trades, and improve market liquidity.

First, what is a market maker?

Market makers typically place buy and sell orders in the market at the same time. For example, if an asset has a buy quote of 100 U

What is market impact cost? Why might a large order continuously drive up the purchase cost or push down the selling price as it is executed?

In cryptocurrency trading, a large order cannot necessarily be filled at the latest price shown on screen. When an order exceeds the quantity available at the current price level, it must continue to match with higher sell prices or lower buy prices, resulting in market impact cost. This is an important component of the actual execution cost and deserves particular attention from large traders.

First, what is market impact cost?

Market impact cost is

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Taiwan stocks briefly surged to 43,385 points before noon, with a big bullish candle in TSMC pushing the index back above 43,000. #Gate上线台股交易 #美股AI概念股普跌

The TAIEX opened at 43,135 points this morning, then climbed to an intraday high of 43,385, up 674 points. At around 10:23, it was last at 43,190, up 511 points (+1.2%), back above the 10-day moving average, with turnover estimated at NT$985.6 billion. It closed at 42,711.92 points yesterday (up 1,050 points), and today marks the third day of the rebound.

The driving force was TSMC: October revenue rose more than 59.7% year over year to a r

That was a path we once walked; every step had meaning.

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What is a market maker? How do they provide liquidity to the market by continuously offering buy and sell quotes, and what risks do they take on?

In the cryptocurrency market, traders need someone to sell when they want to buy and someone to buy when they want to sell. By continuously offering bid and ask prices, market makers help create more continuous quotes, reduce waiting times for some trades, and improve market liquidity.

First, what is a market maker?

Market makers typically place buy and sell orders in the market at the same time. For example, if an asset has a bid quote of 100 USD

What is trading system backtesting? How can historical data be used to test a strategy instead of judging its effectiveness based only on intuition?

In cryptocurrency trading, a strategy that seems logical is not necessarily profitable. Trading system backtesting means applying clearly defined trading rules to historical market data, simulating past trades, and assessing the strategy’s returns, risks, and stability.

First, what should you define before backtesting?

Start by defining the trading instrument, time frame, entry conditions, stop-loss and take-profit rules, position size, and exi

$PEPE Current price 5.4e-06. The first resistance above is the upper Bollinger Band at 5.493e-06, while support below is MA20 at 5.3285e-06; a break below would weaken the trend. These two levels are highlighted first because they form a reusable moving-average framework for reading the market: MA5 is above MA20 and both are rising, indicating that the short-term trend structure remains healthy. Price is tracking along the upper Bollinger Band without breaking through, and with RSI at 57.1 in neutral-to-strong territory and the MACD histogram positive, the pattern is one of “bulls not overhea

Early-morning trading recommendation: Qinghuan has once again nailed the market trend, build positions in batches at low levels and look for upside, exit at 4026-4047 and safely pocket 6000

Many people think they have no opportunities, when in fact they simply don't know how to recognize them, Qinghuan will help you multiply your account and reach your 2 million target this year

$XAUUSD The opening spread is too narrow, and I’m still gauging the price level

#策略# Since the clear pullback on October 9, it has continued pulling back. At what level might the pullback end? Figure 2 shares my view. ​​​$MSTR ‌

How should you determine whether a strategy has truly failed after 10 consecutive losing trades?

In crypto futures trading, consecutive losses are something many traders encounter. The most dangerous part is not the losses themselves, but beginning to doubt the strategy after a string of losses, changing parameters arbitrarily, or even continually increasing position sizes to recover losses.

So, do 10 consecutive losses mean that a trading strategy has failed?

First, look at its historical win rate. If a strategy has a long-term win rate of 60%, then 10 consecutive losses are indeed uncommo